In a potential Election 2012 matchups, the president leads Rick Santorum 48% to 41%. If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, the president leads 49% to 39%.
And Rasmussen tries to spin down the lead for Obama in Virginia:
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Obama drawing 49% support to Romney's 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
With Santorum as the Republican nominee, Obama holds a 51% to 43% lead. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
That would be a 6% lead over Romney, and Rasmussen is already pointing out the number of "undecideds" as an indication that the race is still kind of even. VA is one of the States that has enough EVs to put Obama over 270 (which means he wins) according to the current polling. It's a "must win" State for Republicans, and this idea that Obama's unpopularity will swing undecided voters is odd for a President who is already taking a slim majority of "likely voters".
Also, Franklin and Marshall polled PA (592 RV, ±4.0%, 2/14 - 2/20), and tried to spin down Obama's lead there:
President Obama continues to lead all of his potential Republican challengers
in Pennsylvania. Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are the President’s strongest challengers at the moment, but both trail President Obama by about eight points.
The president’s lead over Rick Santorum is smaller than it was in January. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul both trail the president by double digits. President Obama’s job performance and hard re-elect ratings show slight improvements in the state since January.
Obama has gained 5 points of support since 8/11, and the number of those who "Don't Know" has dropped by 9% since then. Romney has gained 3% in that period. And this is when Obama hasn't even started campaigning yet. It comes down to 41 / 33 / 18 against Romney.
Santorum would seem to be familiar to voters in PA, yet 20% responded "Don't Know" back in 8/11 in a match-up with Obama and Santorum. Obama lead by 6 points back then.
In these current numbers, there's a big drop in those "undecideds" down to 12%. Both have gained 6%. As Santorum has risen on the national scene, one has to wonder if maybe this is his ceiling in the State. And now Obama has a nice margin of eight points in a key State: 45 / 37 / 12 against Santorum.
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