Saturday, February 11, 2012

PPP 2/2 poll

The latest PPP national survey for DKos/SEIU is out. Let's look at the numbers for the 2/2 poll:
  •  Obama's job approval - Basically steady at 48/48 (approve/disapprove), and 4% "not sure". The last poll (1/26) showed 47/49/4. 1% is not statistically significant in this kind of MoE. These aren't the kind of numbers that you would expect to see for a 'hated socialist tyrant', are they?
  • Generic Congressional Ballot - Democrats are favoured 46/43 over Republicans nationally. This is a significant improvement over the previous (1/19) poll figures of 42/44. Women break for the Democrats strongly at 50/37/13, and moderates are even stronger at 57/29/15. Still think that social issues such as birth control are going swing the election? Independents improved greatly over the previous poll: from (1/19) 30/44 Republican to the current 39/42 Republican edge. Voters aged 18-29 go for Democrats 49/41/10, while those aged 65+ break even at 45/44/11. Dude, that's your base breaking even. Also your base: white voters breaking 40/50/11 for Republicans. The Midwest saw a seven-point move towards the Democrats over the previous poll: a Republican 38/49 to now a Democratic 45/43. The West showed no bright spot for the GOP, either: from a Republican 41/50 to the current Democrat 45/43. The South moved more Republican (44/44 to 43/48), but nobody sane is expecting Democrats to pick up any seats in the South. Hispanics are are at a very strong 58/30/12 Democratic break, while those earning over $100k/yr simply break even with those 'Marxist' Democrats at 46/47/7. The volatile 30-45 age demographic also moved from a Republican 39/42 to an even 44/44. Those outside of the Tea Party are strongly favouring Democrats at 68/21/11. The Tea Party was 29% of the sample, and you can't win with that.
  • Party Favourables - Among all voters, Congressional Democrats now are at 33/58/9 (approve/disapprove/not sure). Compare that to the Congressional Republicans at 26/65/9, and tell me how that Tea Party "wave" is now perceived by "The People". Congressional Democrats stayed steady with white voters, as did Congressional Republicans (dropping an insignificant 2 points approval, but gaining 5 points of disapproval). Hispanic voters largely break even on approval for Congressional Democrats (43/45/13), while they loathe Congressional Republicans (28/56/15). Voters with incomes over $100k like the Democrats somewhat better: 32/61/6 over Congressional Republicans' 24/69/7, but the numbers are pretty bad for both. Worst for Republicans is that self-identified Tea Party voters only narrowly approve of Congressional Republicans by 48/44/8. That's your base, Republican wingnuts! Non-Tea Party voters have a positive view of Congressional Democrats by 48/41/11. Voters over the age of 65 have a dim view of Congressional Republicans (24/67), and only a marginally better view of Congressional Democrats (31/55).

Let's not forget this nugget:

Which of the Republican candidates for President do you think is the most genuine: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?

Newt Gingrich  Ron Paul  Mitt Romney  Rick Santorum  Not sure
All      13      25      19      21      22
Women      13      19      20      20      28
Men      14      31      19      21      16
Democrat       9      26      16      11      39
Republican       23      15      25      29      8
Independent/Other       9      36      17      24      15

 Not very good numbers for Romney or Santorum.

 Wondering why Palin's endorsement of Gingrich meant absolutely nothing in the recent caucuses? Just look at this:

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, or would it not make a difference?

More likely Less likely Wouldn't make a difference  Not sure
All      14       53          29       4
Women      13       55          27       5
Men      14       50          31       4
Democrat      8       70          14       8
Republican      24       31          42       3
Independent/Other       8       55          34       2

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