Mitt Romney runs neck-and-neck with President Obama in the key electoral state of Pennsylvania, but Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from the Keystone State, trails the incumbent by six points. Most voters in the state disapprove of the job the president is doing.
New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican presidential nominee, Obama leads 45% to 44%.
This Pennsylvania survey of 438 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
The very recent Franklin and Marshall poll of PA (592 RV, ±4.0%, 2/14 - 2/20) showed Obama ahead by eight points against both Romney and Santorum.
Romney (41/33)
Santorum (45/37)
The absence of Rasmussen's weasel-wording regarding "undecideds" and those who "prefer some other candidate" is revealing in this current poll. If Obama is ahead in a swing state, Rasmussen feels compelled to point out that it could be a tie - providing that everything goes in the Republicans' favour.
For a conservative narrative that seems to rely heavily on the idea that "anybody" could beat Obama, conservatives seem oddly eager right now to simply settle for a tie.
PPP's average of four polls shows basically what Rasmussen found, with the latest poll (11/22/11) showing a 45/45 tie with Romney.
The Republicans must win PA just to stay alive. If Obama wins it, he will almost certainly gain enough electoral votes to win re-election. In fact, he would gain enough EV to compensate for losing Iowa. Yet, this crucial State is a virtual toss-up - or could possibly already be in Obama's favour, depending on the pollster.
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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:
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