Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Muhlenberg: Obama comfortably ahead in PA

Yet another pollster finds Pennsylvania to be going Obama's direction. Muhlenberg (625 RV, ±4% MoE, 2/15 - 2/21) finds Obama leading Romney leading Romney by 11 (48/37), and Santorum losing to Obama by 8 (49/41). This confirms the Franklin and Marshall poll from last week.

For a candidate who is doing better than Romney against the President, the poll shows pretty negative views of Santorum. His "favourables" (Q4) are negative (39/49), first of all. But, specifically:
"Q13: Rick Santorum shares most of the same values and beliefs that I have."
 40% strongly disagree with that statement (a plurality), with an additional 11% "somewhat" disagreeing.
"Q14: Rick Santorum can beat President Obama in the presidential election."
45% strongly disagree with that statement (a plurality), and an additional 14% somewhat disagree.
 "Q15: Rick Santorum's views on social issues are too extreme for him to be president."
36% strongly agree (a plurality), with another 15% somewhat agreeing.
"Q18: My opinions of Rick Santorum have changed since his days representing Pennsylvania in Congress."
37% strongly disagree (a plurality), with another 21% somewhat disagreeing.
"Q20: Rick Santorum's positions on contraceptives are similar to my views in this matter."
44% strongly disagree with that statement (a plurality), and an additional 10% somewhat disagree.

In every one of these questions, Santorum is in the minority among registered voters in PA. And this guy is doing three points better than Romney in a match-up with Obama.

Remember, PA is a crucial State in electoral votes. If Obama wins there, he pretty much wins the election.

As mentioned, another pollster found Obama ahead by eight points over Romney and Santorum. Back in November, PPP showed a tie with Romney and a five-point lead over Santorum in match-ups with the President. The momentum doesn't seem to be on the side of the Republicans.

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