Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Rising gas prices not a winning issue for Republicans

This week's DKos/SEIU poll was released. The pollster is PPP (1000 RV, MoE ±3.1%, 2/23 - 2/26). 

Republicans have been hoping that higher gas prices will affect Obama's job approval negatively. The results of this poll, however, strongly indicate that the public blames Congress much more for this situation. Even worse, among those who blame Congress, Republicans get most of the blame from a wide variety of demographics.

On this question: 

Who do you think has more responsibility for the current price of gas: Congress or President Obama?

46% (a plurality) say Congress has more responsibility for higher gas prices, compared to only 28% who say that Obama does. That's among all registered voters nationally. Let's dig down into those numbers:
  • A plurality of both men and women pin the blame on Congress; 41% and 50% respectively.
  • 45% (a plurality) of Independent voters blame Congress, while only 21% blame the President.
  • 56% of moderates (a majority) blame Congress; 16% blame Obama.
  • Hispanics say Congress is more responsible for gas prices: 49% compared to 22% blaming Obama.
  • A plurality of all four regions (South, West, Midwest, Northeast) name Congress as the one with the most influence over gas prices.
  • White voters name Congress - 40% - compared to 34% who name the President.
The only demographics who blame the President more than Congress are the ones pushing the narrative: Republicans, Tea Party members, and conservatives. In other words, this whole thing doesn't draw any new voters. It only sounds convincing to the core of the Republican base. 

So, Congress is seen by roughly half of the nation's voters as being more responsible for gas prices. It must be those Democrats in Congress who get the blame, then. Right? 
Wrong

On this question:

(Follow-up to those who pick Congress:) Do you think the Democrats or Republicans in Congress have more responsibility for the current price of gas?

A majority (of the 46% who blame Congress for higher gas prices) blame the Republicans.

51% of the nation's registered voters (who assign blame to Congress) say that the Republicans are the ones with responsibility for gas prices.

Democrats  Republicans  Both equally  Not sure
All      16        51         28        4
Women      13        56         26        5
Men      21        45         31        3
Democrat      3        65         27        5
Republican      51        15         29        5
Independent/Other      19        48         31        2  
 Even 36% of conservatives blame the Republicans, compared to 39% who blame the Democrats.

A plurality of every age group blames the Republicans, as does all four regions. A plurality of every income demographic blames the Republicans, as do whites and Hispanics.

It looks as if the Republicans would be the biggest victims of this narrative.

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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:


  
 



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