Ras Trax 2/17, doubles down on Catholic poll

Another day, another Rasmussen tracker showing Obama ahead - but within the margin of error (MoE). Plenty of room for Ras to wiggle around, just the way he likes it.

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 48% to 42% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  If former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads 47% to 41%.

A six-point lead for Obama over either Republican front-runner looks good, but the MoE is 3 points on either side: take 3 points off Obama and add three points to Romney / Santorum, and you get an even break. Of course, this would mean that Rasmussen's sampling, "likely voter" screen, and 'random' panel are heavily skewed toward Republicans. Nobody that still believes in Rasmussen would care about that, though. And, by keeping the level of "undecideds" well above the MoE and the lead, Rasmussen allows plenty of room for his "things changed" moments.

But if we compare apples-to-apples, this tracker shows how flimsy the Republican narrative really is. Let's look at Rasmussen's own party ID (PID) breakdown:

Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 34.7% Republicans, 33.6% Democrats, and 31.8% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.

Okay, Ras doesn't say how large the "slightly larger advantage" is for Republicans is in his LV screen. Let's assume 2%, which is probably generous.

Romney's 42% subtracted from Rasmussen's figures for self-identified Republicans (adjusted for his LV screen) is 5.3%. That means that Romney is currently drawing a bit over 5% outside of his Party.

Obama's 48% subtracted from Rasmussen's 33.6% figure for self-identified Democrats is 14.4%. Remember, these are Rasmussen's "likely voters", so (if you take Rasmussen seriously) you can't say that those Obama supporters won't turn out. That means that Obama is more likely (right now) to win over Independents.

Obama also is drawing 48% job performance approval, strongly suggesting that his support in the match-up is firm. Again, these are "likely voters", so you can't claim that those who only "somewhat approve" of Obama won't turn out.

Romney's 42% contrasts with Rasmussen's 52% disapproval of Obama. This means that 10% of those who disapprove of Obama aren't currently willing to commit to the Republicans. In fact, Romney's 42% split is not much larger than the 40% that Rasmussen shows as "Strong Disapproval" of Obama.

For a Party that seems to be relying on a national mood of "Anybody But Obama", this doesn't look very good. Likely voters that disapprove of Obama aren't moving toward "anybody" but him. If Obama's "Strong Approval" is at 26%, what does it say when he draws 48% in a match-up? Obama draws 22% outside of his strong supporters, and Romney draws only 2% outside of Obama's strongest detractors.

Again, these are "likely voters". Doesn't his show how meaningless the entire "Strong" approval/disapproval really is? You can't say that only 26% of voters will actually turn out for Obama, and simultaneously say that 48% of likely voters will break for him. Either the value of "Strong Approval" is highly over-rated, or Rasmussen's "likely voter" screen needs to filter out 20%+ more people.

These extrapolations all involve Rasmussen's own numbers. They seem to indict the premise that Rasmussen's "likely voter" screen is built on: that Democrats won't vote. And it shows that Obama's solid base is 8 points higher than the Republicans' solid base. This does not support a narrative of an unpopular President that only draws his most ardent supporters to the polls.

In further Rasmussen stupidity, Scotty has doubled down on his previous survey results indicating that that the "religious freedom" (contraception) issue will cost Obama Catholic support.

In his 2/14 poll, Rasmussen says this:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of likely Catholic voters nationwide at least somewhat disapprove of the president’s job performance, while 40% at least somewhat approve. But the passion’s on the side of those who don’t like the job he’s doing: 44% Strongly Disapprove versus 19% who Strongly Approve.

Okay, so we see the "strong" approve / disapprove issue being pulled out again. But we are already dealing with "likely voters" here. Who cares about "the passion"? You can't vote with an exclamation point.

But how does this poll show that the White House position on the birth control controversy has cost Obama votes with Catholics? Rasmussen himself concludes:

While the president’s overall job approval ratings have improved over the past couple of months, they have remained steady among Catholics.

"Remained steady"? So did Catholic support drop off? No. 

But further:

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Catholics voted for Obama in November 2008. However, Republican hopeful Mitt Romney currently leads the president among Catholic voters by a 52% to 35% margin.

So can an issue that only appeared two weeks ago (at best) be ascribed to a drop over nearly four years? And Romney leaves 7% of those "disapproving" Catholics on the table in a match-up with Obama (59-52). Hell, Obama's even drawing 16% above his "strong approval" in a match-up (35-19). Even if you take this poll seriously, it doesn't show any drop in support due to the recent controversy.

And should we even take this poll seriously? Other pollsters dramatically differ with Rasmussen on the issue:

• Gallup: "An average of 46% of Catholics approved of the job Obama was doing as president last week, compared with 49% the prior week, a change within the margin of sampling error."
• CBS/NYT:  "The number is similar among self-professed Catholics surveyed: 61 percent said they support the Obama administration's rule, while 32 percent oppose it"
• PPP:  "We did an over sample of almost 400 Catholics and found that they support the benefit overall, 53-44, and oppose an exception for Catholic hospitals and universities, 53-45. The Bishops really are not speaking for Catholics as a whole on this issue."

Want more dumb from Rasmussen? Look at this:

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Evangelical Christians and 52% of other Protestants also at least somewhat disapprove of the job Obama is doing in the White House.

 Wow, the Republican base doesn't like Obama! Shocking news. This is the usual desperate spin from the Right that we saw in 2008: Republicans won't vote for Obama, so he can't win. And, at the time of this survey, Rasmussen showed 50% (likely voters, mind you) at least "somewhat approving" of Obama. That kind of puts the "faith gap" numbers into perspective.

This faith gap was evident in December, well before the current dispute between the Obama Administration and religious leaders. Yet while the president’s overall job approval ratings have gone up slightly in recent weeks as perceptions of the economy have begun to improve, there’s been little or no change in attitude among religious groups. 

So the people who disliked him before still don't like him, and that somehow is supposed to mean that this new position is going to cost Obama votes? At best, it shows that the Republican base is more resistant to the improvement in Obama's "favourables" than the general electorate. Big deal.