PPP: "Obama Leading Republicans Big in Michigan"

Conservatives can't seem to help themselves when it comes to misinterpreting polling results. It's far too common for them to point to primary polling as an indication of a general election outcome.

In spite of the recent 'excitement' over Santorum's rise in the primary polling for Michigan, Public Policy Polling just released new survey results that show Obama winning the State handily. (560 RV, +/- 4.14% MoE, 2/10-2/12)

                   

President Obama leads all Republican challengers in Michigan by double digits, while Republicans are suffering from high unfavorability ratings among voters. Obama leads Mitt Romney by 16 points (54-38), leads Newt Gingrich by 22 points (56-34), leads Rick Santorum by 11 points (50-39) and leads Ron Paul by 18 points (52-34). Last July, we found that Obama led Romney by just 5 points (47-42).

Obama’s job approval rating in Michigan stands at 52% approval and 44% disapproval, an improvement from last July when Obama was at 50/46. 53% of voters say that Barack Obama’s leadership has been “good for Michigan’s economy” while 41% think it’s been
bad.

Republican presidential candidates are suffering from horrific favorability ratings in Michigan – less than one-third of voters have favorable opinions of Mitt Romney (29/58), Newt Gingrich (21/66) or Ron Paul (31/54). Only Rick Santorum is liked by more than one-third of voters and disliked by less than half of voters (40/47).

While the Republican narrative is that Obama is some kind of hated figure, and "anybody" could beat him, we see that he is much more liked than any of the Republican candidates.

If the most liked Republican (Santorum) only has 40% of Michigan registered voters indicating a favourable opinion of him, what does that say about the "hated" Obama showing 52% approval? Doesn't it mean that Republicans are more "hated" than Obama? How does this support the idea that the electorate would vote for "anybody but Obama"? More importantly, how does this support the idea that voters won't turn out for the more popular Obama, but they will show up to vote for the less popular Republican?

Previously, I did a preliminary assessment of the likely electoral vote totals from States that Obama led in polling. Michigan has 17 EV, and they look even more likely to go to Obama than they did when that post was written. Obama has more than doubled his lead over the past seven months in the State. 

This poll also undermines the Republican narrative that a bad economy will hurt Obama. We have a bad economy right now, and Obama is running away with a State that was hard hit in the downturn. A slight majority of registered voters are even saying that Obama has been “good for Michigan’s economy”. Isn't it weird how the number of those disapproving of Obama's impact on the Michigan economy seems to be right around the number of those voting for and (approving of) Republican candidates? 

It also seems to dovetail with Rasmussen's perpetual 40% that "Strongly Disapprove" of Obama.

You could look at these numbers and say that Obama has a solid 40% of Michigan voters firmly against him. 

I'd concede that readily. But that number has not grown over the past seven months, while the number supporting Obama against Romney has grown... by 7 points. Obama is even over the putatively magical 50% mark when matched up with Romney in Michigan. 

Seven months ago, conservatives were pointing to the President's 5-point lead in Michigan and saying that it was within the MoE, and that it would come down as the general electorate saw more of Romney in the primary campaigns. Well, the race is no longer within the MoE, and those numbers for Romney have slightly declined, while Obama's have gone up. Are we surprised that conservatives are wrong? They are living in a bubble world in which it is still 2010. 

Let's examine the cross-tabs in this survey:

• Santorum, the 'most popular' Republican candidate, only gets a 67% favourable opinion among those who voted for McCain in 2008. That's the Republican base, folks. 
• In a match-up with Obama, Santorum only draws 78% of McCain voters, while Obama draws 82% of those who voted for him in 2008. And Santorum is the one who does the best in this metric.
• Moderates break more than 3-1 against Romney, and 60/21 against Santorum. There's that "extreme" agenda showing up again. 
• Santorum breaks positively 17 / 68 / 15 against Obama among those who self-identify as "somewhat conservative", and Santorum does the best of all the Republicans in this metric as well. Only 68% of a crucial Republican base demographic that is 21% of the electorate? Does that sound like enthusiasm?
• Obama wins women voters by a full 30% over Romney (61/31), while Santorum "only" loses women voters by 25 points. Romney breaks even with men, while Santorum carries them by a mere 5%. With males turning out to be a crucial base demographic for Republicans, this breakdown is not encouraging.
• Romney breaks strongly negative in favourable opinion with Independents (32/52), while Santorum breaks even (43/44). In match-ups with Obama, however, Obama wins Independents by 12 over Romney and six over Santorum. Favourable opinions do not seem to have a strong bearing on the match-up results here.
• Obama wins white voters by 7 points over Romney (wow!) in a match-up, while whites essentially break even with Santorum (45/43, O+2). That's another crucial Republican base demographic.
• In favourable opinion, Romney loses voters aged 65+ by 23 points (34/57), with Santorum settling for an even break at 44/42. Match-ups are different once again, though. Voters aged 65+ go for Obama over Romney by 7 points, with Santorum narrowly losing them by 4. Another crucial Republican demographic fails to line up with the Party.
• Obama strongly prevails in match-ups with the 18-29 age demographic. He beats both Santorum and Romney by at least 2-1. Romney loses these voters 66/26, and Santorum loses them 60/30. Ron Paul, with his much flaunted "youth vote appeal" loses this age group 62/26 over Obama.

 With Republican candidates showing relatively poorly with their own base in these match-ups, it really shows the inherent weakness in trying to run a scare campaign against Obama. We've already had at least four years (including the 2008 campaign) of virtually non-stop fear-mongering by the Right against the President. How will more of the same turn the tide? Republicans have a solid base of 40% right now, and they can't win with that. Making that solid 40% even more solid isn't going to do them any good. 

At least in Michigan, it seems clear that Obama isn't despised, he isn't scary, and he isn't a "failed President". These are the points most likely to be hammered on in the Republican primary, and they seem to only resonate with that 40% Republican base.

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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections: