PPP 1/26 national poll

The latest PPP national survey for DKos/SEIU is out. Let's look at the numbers for the 1/26 poll:

• Voter Enthusiasm - Democrats regain the lead on the enthusiasm gap. 58% of Democrats are "very excited" about "voting in the 2012 elections", while 54% of Republicans are. The national average is now up to 52% "very excited" (VE), which is the number for any demographic to beat, with a lowering to 77% for being at least "somewhat excited" (SE). Voters aged 65+ saw a noticeable increase from 50 to 56 VE, and a less-impressive rise from 79 to 82% SE. The West increased from 42 to 47% VE, but that's still below average. The South rose incrementally to 57% VE, but dropped to 77% SE. This is kind of good news to see the most enthusiastic Republican voters located in states that Obama doesn't need to win. Women are up to 50% VE (still slightly below average) and 78% SE (average). Voters aged 18-29 dropped to their lowest ever 63% SE, but maintain a 51% VE level.
• Generic Presidential Ballot - Among all voters, Obama pretty much breaks even at 47/46 (O +1). This is exactly what he had at in the last (1/12) poll. Interestingly, Obama prevails 46/42 against Romney in a match-up, which means that Romney is polling 4 points worse than a generic Republican. Independents break 39/44 for the Republicans on the generic, but 35/43 In favour of Obama in the match-up with Romney. Voters aged 18-29 go for Obama by 57/29 in the generic (55/24 in the match-up), which is five-point drop for the generic Republican since the last poll. Voters aged 65+ moved more Republican to an even break of 49/48 (O +1), though Obama carries the demographic by six points in a match-up with Romney. The Midwest saw slight movement toward Obama to an even break 47/46 (O +1), up four for Obama and down 3 for the generic Republican from the last poll.
• Party Favourables - The Democratic Party dropped four points with white voters from the 1/12 poll, and up four by an equal amount for the Republican Party. Whites break 39/49 in favour of Romney is a match-up, which is quite terrible for the strongest single element of the Republican base. With Independents, the Democratic party breaks 30/53, which sounds bad until you see that the Republican Party breaks 22/59 with them. It's basically an even break for the Democratic Party with the 18-29 demographic (41/43), but a tragedy for the same group with the Republican Party at 29/59. With those aged 65+, The Democratic Party breaks even at 46/46, with the Republican Party showing a negative 35/54. Obama leads by six in a Romney match-up with the 65+ demographic. This indicates that Obama is more popular than the Democratic Party with registered voters aged 65+, and that about 11% of 65+ voters will vote Republican even though they don't like the Party. Which side would get an enthusiasm advantage?

In the Obama/Romney match-up, Obama leads by 4 (46/42) with all registered voters. He also wins women voters by an 11-point margin, and moderates a 25-point margin. Hispanic voters go Obama's way by nearly 30 points, and he also wins 81% of African-Americans. Most notable, the South breaks even at 42/42 for each, with 16% undecided. Obama carries the Midwest by eight points (47/39). Romney draws 79% of self-identified Tea Party voters' vote, and loses to Obama by 23 points with those not in the Tea Party. For all of the "socialist" rhetoric, Romney wins those making $100k/yr by only nine points (40/49) against Obama, with 11% undecided. Obama wins the Northeast by 19 points, and breaks even in the South (as previously mentioned).

Gingrich does poorly against Obama in a match-up, to say the least. Obama wins 49/40 among all voters, and carries women by 18 points. Gingrich wins the exact same 79% of Tea Party voters, but loses by an even larger margin outside of that group than Romney did. Hispanics go more than 2-to-1 for Obama against Gingrich, and Gingrich barely even carries the white vote at 42/46. Obama wins every age demographic against Gingrich - except for the 45-65 group, where he merely breaks even at 45/45 each. Gingrich loses those 18-29 by nearly 40 points.

In other PPP polling, Obama breaks even with Romney in MO (45/45, 9% undecided). The Obama campaign isn't counting on winning MO, but it's a must-win state for the Republicans, who need those 10 electoral votes (EV). As in 2008, the Republican path to 270 EV is fraught with many toss-ups and they must win virtually all of them. Obama only needs to win 1 out of 4 toss-ups in key States to win.

One of those four States is OH, and another PPP poll shows Obama leading there by 7 points against Romney. With 9% undecided, this could be a close race, but it's one that Republicans absolutely have to win to deprive Obama of those 18 EV. McCain lost OH by 5 points in the last election, and Romney is doing slightly worse than that right now.