Rasmussen finally begins state polling

Two polls so far: FL and OH. Rasmussen is already showing the obligatory narrative-bolstering rise of Santorum in these polls. Neither poll is very good ammunition for delusional wingnuts bent on disproving PPP's numbers.

Florida:

Rasmussen
2/9/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2012 President
47% Obama (D), 44% Romney (R)
47% Obama (D), 46% Santorum (R)

Ohio:

Rasmussen
2/8/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2012 President
45% Obama (D), 41% Romney (R)
44% Obama (D), 44% Santorum (R)

According to PPP's rough electoral vote analysis, Obama will win the needed 270 electoral votes (EV) if he can win either OH or FL.

The fact that you can take the same set of polls and use them to put Obama at either 337 or 255 electoral votes speaks to how up in the air this year's Presidential race is. But Obama should find this heartening- he has 255 electoral votes locked up in states where we found him with at least a 5 point average poll lead in 2011.  If he can win just one out of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina that puts him over 270.

 And now Rasmussen is showing Obama with a weasel-lead in both States, over both the "inevitable" Romney as well as the "insurgent" Santorum. Actually, Santorum only ties Obama in Ohio in Rasmussen's world. But Ohio is a must-win State for Republicans.

PPP shows Obama winning OH by six or seven points, depending on the Republican candidate.

NC is pretty much a tie as PPP polls it.

In November, PPP showed a tie in PA.

Back in January, Quinnipiac showed a tie in FL against Romney:

Quinnipiac
1/19-23/12; 1,518 registered voters, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
Quinnipiac release
Florida
2012 President
45% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R)
49% Obama (D), 40% Santorum (R)
47% Obama (D), 39% Paul (R)
50% Obama (D), 39% Gingrich (R)

 So Obama either leads or ties in all four States, and Republicans really must win all of these toss-ups. On top of that, MO is now a toss-up, and Republicans must win that State to get 270 EV.

Of course, the wingnuts shriek, "It's only February! It can all turn around!!!!"

Okay, it could. But what is the big issue that Republicans see is going to turn the race around?

A bad economy? Hey, it's bad now, and Obama is winning. And it seems to be improving.

"Socialism"? I'm too lazy to even yawn at that one. Obama's already the biggest "socialist" EVER, if you believe wingnuts - and he's still winning.

Birth control? Really? Rasmussen is alone in showing that issue to be even marginally beneficial to the GOP.

If the 'big issue' is really just going to be that conservatives hate Obama, then the Republicans are screwed. Look, wingnuts, if someone isn't already part of your movement, they aren't particularly impressed by your opinion of the President - or much of anything, to be fair. There aren't millions of swing voters holding off their decision on who to vote for until the conservatives weigh in and tell them what to think. If the arguments and narratives that conservatives put forward haven't already worked on someone, it's unlikely these things will suddenly be effective and influential over them - and sway for them for another eight months or so. Either you believe the people who say Obama is a Muslim, or you don't. There's not a huge amount of analysis that needs to be done by the person hearing the narrative. It's about the credibility of the person telling you that Obama is a Muslim. If that same person tells you the same thing one thousand times, it doesn't become more credible; it just gets more annoying. After the past four years, it's pretty clear in the minds of the electorate what the Republican "message" is. People just don't buy the ever-shifting definitions, premises, and conclusions of that "message". So the Republicans are left with "social issues" (e.g. abortion, SSM, drug prohibition, War On Christmas, etc.).

Social issues really are only effective on the base, and those voters are already "in the bag" for whoever is the Republican nominee. Santorum is all about the social issues, so he brings no new voters to the Republican side with that strategy. In fact, he turns off Independents with that stuff. There is no way that the GOP is going to flip FIVE toss-up States with social issues.

Maybe Democrats won't vote. It doesn't look like it right now, though.

Our last national survey for Daily Kos found that 58% of Democrats were 'very excited' about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats 'very excited' and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP.

Going deeper inside the numbers:
-25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals.
-The percentage of Tea Party voters 'very excited' about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July.
-The single group of voters most enthused about turning this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots.