Charlie Cook has a few doubts

Noted political analyst Charlie Cook took a cautionary tone in his latest National Journal column:

But now I wonder whether the economy will drive this election to the usual extent—or to the extent I had thought. More specifically, will the Republican Party nominate a candidate who can credibly compete for the independent voters whose support is so important in general elections? 

Independents represented 29 percent of the electorate in 2008. In last year's combined Gallup polls, though, they were 40 percent—a record high. In 2000, Republican George W. Bush won the independent vote by 2 percentage points over Democrat Al Gore but narrowly lost the overall popular vote. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry actually carried independents by 1 point but lost the national popular vote by 3 points. The winner of the independent vote doesn’t necessarily win the general election. But a candidate has to be very competitive among independents to have a chance to win. In 2008, the GOP’s John McCain lost the independent vote by 8 percentage points and the election by 7 points.

Both Republican candidates are concentrating on winning the Republican base right now. That's what candidates do in a primary campaign, of course. But the danger is that the Party is being locked into positions and rhetoric that could be highly damaging to voters outside of the reliable Republican base in a general election.

Cook is one of those analysts who seems to default to favouring Republicans. When he starts expressing doubts, people on the Right usually listen. It will be interesting to see the reaction among conservatives to these remarks: 

Simply put, the passion and energy of the Republican Party today may well fail to produce a nominee with a decent chance of winning in November. My assumption was that Romney would be the nominee and would make a good run. Now, I have begun to doubt both propositions. His odds of winning the nomination are growing longer. And even if he does, he has twisted and turned himself into a human pretzel. I’m not sure how electable he is. The alternatives, however, seem even less so.

 So, yeah, keep pushing "social conservative" issues. Keep making crazy statements and spinning scary scenarios that everyone outside of the base just rolls their eyes at. Keep telling us that the President is a Muslim who is Constitutionally unfit for office, and who is at war with (your narrow version of) Christianity. Above all, continue with your arrogant assumption that Obama is a hated figure that only a tiny minority of "far Left" die-hards would vote for. You Republicans have been telling the country that conservatives are the majority, and that the more conservative a candidate is, the more likely they are to win. While you're at it, maybe bring out Sarah Palin a lot more often. Everyone loves her and listens to what she has to say, right?