PPP's newest Washington numbers find Barack Obama with an approval rating over 50% in the state and double digit leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. 51% of voters think he's doing a good job to 45% who give him poor marks. He's on positive ground largely because there are twice as many Republicans (12%) who approve of him as there are Democrats (6%) who disapprove.
What might be most interesting about the Washington numbers is how Mitt Romney stacks up against Obama compared to the other Republican candidates. Long perceived as the most electable GOP hopeful, Romney fares only the third best in Washington with both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul coming a few points closer to Obama.
WA has 12 EV, and has been assumed safe for the Democrats at the Presidential level based on previous polling.
PPP also found the Senate incumbent, Maria Cantwell, to be reasonably popular (47/38), and showing strong leads over her (nearly unknown) Republican contenders.
47% of Washington voters approve of the job Cantwell's doing to 38% who disapprove. To put those numbers into some context, our first Washington Senate poll of 2010 found Patty Murray with a 46/45 approval spread. So Cantwell's net approval is 8 points better and Murray of course went on to be reelected by 5 points in what was an otherwise dreadful election year for Democrats.
Baumgartner and Bryant are complete unknowns to voters in the state. Only 22% have heard enough about Baumgartner to have an opinion about him and for Bryant that figure declines to 15%. Because of the obscurity of the candidates there are far more undecideds Republicans than Democrats in their match ups with Cantwell. That means the race will most likely get a little bit closer once the GOP unifies around a nominee and that person becomes better known, but probably not enough to actually make this a competitive race.
In the Presidential match-ups, the highlights are as follows:
- Ron Paul loses the State to Obama by 13%. He loses moderates by 31% to Obama, loses women by 24%, and loses Independent voters by 2 points. He loses the youth vote by 5%, and the elderly vote by nine.
- Santorum is toxic to young voters in WA. The 18-29 age demographic falls to Obama by 29 points. Even the 65+ demographic narrowly breaks for Obama 49/45.
- Obama has a positive 59/34 approval with WA moderates, while Romney is deeply negative at 21/68.
- Obama manages to pick up 17% of voters who describe themselves as "somewhat conservative" in match-ups with both Santorum and Romney.
- The gender gap continues to be an issue. Obama wins women by 21% over Romney. Actually Obama manages to lead with men by 7 points, for that matter.
- Independent voters break in Obama's favour by 7 points over Romney.
- Romney loses white voters by 13 points, and the 65+ age group by eight points.
Last, PPP's Tom Jensen provides this interesting insight:
The other thing Washington does is provide more evidence that the 2012 electoral landscape will be more similar to 2008 than 2000 or 2004. In the last 2 months PPP has polled 4 states that Al Gore won by 5 points or less in 2000 that Barack Obama went on to win by double digits in 2008. In all 4 of those states Obama is again headed for a double digit victory...they are not reverting to their 2000/2004 competitiveness
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