Let's look at the states that Obama is expected to carry at this point and add up the electoral votes.
CA (55), OR (7), WA (11), NM (5), MN (10), MI (17), IL (21), NY (31), MA (12), VT (3), ME (4), RI (4), DC (3), MD (10), DE (3), NJ (15), IA (7), WI (10), CT (7), HI (4)
That's 239 EV right there.
Another State looks likely to go to Obama:
VA (13), with Quinnipiac showing a 4 point lead for Obama over Romney (8 points over Santorum).
This makes 252 EV.
This is a very good starting point for Obama. He only needs 18 more EV to win, according to the current outlook. Where could he get 18 more EV?
- Ohio (20 EV)
PPP's November 2011 polling shows Obama with a 9-point lead in OH.
In 2/12 polling by PPP, Obama leads by 6 points.
Rasmussen, for what it's worth, shows Obama with a 4 point lead over Romney and tying Santorum.
- Florida (27 EV)
1/23 Quinnipiac showed a tie in FL against Romney.
12/1/11 PPP showed Obama with a 1 point lead over Romney.
- North Carolina (15 EV)
2/9/12 PPP shows Obama with a 1 point lead over Romney (2 over Santorum) in NC.
- Pennsylvania (21 EV)
11/22/11 PPP polls a tie in PA with Romney, 5 point lead against Santorum.
2/6/12 Susquehanna shows Romney with a two-point lead, Obama beats Santorum by 4.
For Republicans, the problem is that their really strong States don't have very many electoral votes:
WY (3), UT (5), ID (4), KS (6), AK (3), AR (6), MS (6), SC (8), WV (5), NE (5).
These total 45 EV; not even close to CA's 55 EV.
It might look neat on a map to see large red areas, but square miles don't vote; actual people do.
At the moment, the GOP seems obsessed with making already red States even redder, but that doesn't help them at all.
Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:
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