PPP 2/2 poll

The latest PPP national survey for DKos/SEIU is out. Let's look at the numbers for the 2/2 poll:

•  Obama's job approval - Basically steady at 48/48 (approve/disapprove), and 4% "not sure". The last poll (1/26) showed 47/49/4. 1% is not statistically significant in this kind of MoE. These aren't the kind of numbers that you would expect to see for a 'hated socialist tyrant', are they?
• Generic Congressional Ballot - Democrats are favoured 46/43 over Republicans nationally. This is a significant improvement over the previous (1/19) poll figures of 42/44. Women break for the Democrats strongly at 50/37/13, and moderates are even stronger at 57/29/15. Still think that social issues such as birth control are going swing the election? Independents improved greatly over the previous poll: from (1/19) 30/44 Republican to the current 39/42 Republican edge. Voters aged 18-29 go for Democrats 49/41/10, while those aged 65+ break even at 45/44/11. Dude, that's your base breaking even. Also your base: white voters breaking 40/50/11 for Republicans. The Midwest saw a seven-point move towards the Democrats over the previous poll: a Republican 38/49 to now a Democratic 45/43. The West showed no bright spot for the GOP, either: from a Republican 41/50 to the current Democrat 45/43. The South moved more Republican (44/44 to 43/48), but nobody sane is expecting Democrats to pick up any seats in the South. Hispanics are are at a very strong 58/30/12 Democratic break, while those earning over $100k/yr simply break even with those 'Marxist' Democrats at 46/47/7. The volatile 30-45 age demographic also moved from a Republican 39/42 to an even 44/44. Those outside of the Tea Party are strongly favouring Democrats at 68/21/11. The Tea Party was 29% of the sample, and you can't win with that.
• Party Favourables - Among all voters, Congressional Democrats now are at 33/58/9 (approve/disapprove/not sure). Compare that to the Congressional Republicans at 26/65/9, and tell me how that Tea Party "wave" is now perceived by "The People". Congressional Democrats stayed steady with white voters, as did Congressional Republicans (dropping an insignificant 2 points approval, but gaining 5 points of disapproval). Hispanic voters largely break even on approval for Congressional Democrats (43/45/13), while they loathe Congressional Republicans (28/56/15). Voters with incomes over $100k like the Democrats somewhat better: 32/61/6 over Congressional Republicans' 24/69/7, but the numbers are pretty bad for both. Worst for Republicans is that self-identified Tea Party voters only narrowly approve of Congressional Republicans by 48/44/8. That's your base, Republican wingnuts! Non-Tea Party voters have a positive view of Congressional Democrats by 48/41/11. Voters over the age of 65 have a dim view of Congressional Republicans (24/67), and only a marginally better view of Congressional Democrats (31/55).

Let's not forget this nugget:

Which of the Republican candidates for President do you think is the most genuine: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, or Rick Santorum?

	Newt Gingrich	Ron Paul	Mitt Romney	Rick Santorum	Not sure
All	13	25	19	21	22
Women	13	19	20	20	28
Men	14	31	19	21	16
Democrat	9	26	16	11	39
Republican	23	15	25	29	8
Independent/Other	9	36	17	24	15

 Not very good numbers for Romney or Santorum.

 Wondering why Palin's endorsement of Gingrich meant absolutely nothing in the recent caucuses? Just look at this:

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, or would it not make a difference?

	More likely	Less likely	Wouldn't make a difference	Not sure
All	14	53	29	4
Women	13	55	27	5
Men	14	50	31	4
Democrat	8	70	14	8
Republican	24	31	42	3
Independent/Other	8	55	34	2

The Palin Pick

Wow. The Republicans' heads are spinning around.

By picking Palin, McCain takes the "Obama is too inexperienced" issue right off the table, which was his only non-smear issue.

By picking Palin, McCain gives up on the independents. Palin is a complete 28%-er who backs Bush completely. She is also a creationist, hard-line pro-life, and evangelical Christian. You don't pick up independents with someone like that. If independents had those views, then they wouldn't be independents - they'd already be Republicans.

By picking Palin, McCain actually alienates women voters. It takes a Republican Kool-Aid drinker to believe that women will vote for McCain simply because a woman is on the ticket, especially since that woman is completely out of the mainstream political views that the strong majority of women hold.

This is a move to appeal to the Republican base, which it will. The problem is, though, that McCain already has 87% of that base locked up. And that base is a lot smaller than it was in 2004, while the number who self-identify as Democrats has increased by 10% to record highs.

Palin will definitely improve the turnout among Republican evangelicals, but their numbers have also dropped since 2004 in a generational split.

Palin will be under intense media scrutiny in the next two months to a degree that the Governor of Alaska never was. It is almost certain that she will make some gaffe, which Republicans will be forced to defend. They will cry that the media and the Democrats are "picking on a woman", while at the same time crying about "picking on a war hero". It will be the ultimate whiner's ticket, and it will sound like these two aren't ready to face 21st century challenges.

Meanwhile, all McCain has left against Obama are smears: Ayers, Rezko, secret Muslim, crazy radical, and unpatriotic. None of these have gained traction despite being given heavy play in the primary and by McCain surrogates for several months. And Biden, HRC, and Bill will be attacking McCain constantly on his weaknesses. Being a "war hero" just won't cut it.

And the big issue about this pick that makes even Republicans pause is that McCain is 72 and has recurring cancer. If McCain dies or is incapacitated in office, then Palin takes over. Can anyone imagine Palin commanding two wars (plus any new ones that McCain has started while in office), staring down Putin, handling negotiations with Iran, Venezuela, or Pakistan? Can anyone imagine Palin convincing our allies to go along with whatever crazy foreign policy McCain has left her? Telling the rest of the world not to "pick on a woman" is not going to work in those circumstances.

Palin is not a scholar along the lines of Obama. She has no foreign policy experience, whereas Obama has been to Iraq, toured Europe, been briefed extensively on military matters, and has served on the Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate. Palin would inherit all of McCain's "yes men" advisors, and be completely out of her depth on the national and international stage. If the crises the country faces in the next four years all involve attending hockey games, then she can handle it. If it's more complex than that, we are all - Republican, Independent, and Democrat alike - in big trouble.