A new GA poll by SUSA (1154 RV, ±2.9% MoE, 2/23 -2/26) shows Obama losing to Romney by seven points: 42/49 with 8% undecided. In 2008, Obama lost Georgia 52/47. I don't think that anyone seriously thought that this was a State "in play", and none of the paths to 270 EV involve flipping GA.
A new Quinnipiac poll of NJ shows Romney losing by ten points in a match-up with Obama: 49/39.
It also shows a hypothetical match-up with Gov. Christie as Romney's running mate. Romney still loses in this scenario 49/43. In a match up with Santorum against Obama, Santorum loses big: 52/34.
Christie's job approval is positive (55/38), and not remarkably better than Obama's job approval in NJ at 51/45. The Senate race also shows the Democrat Menendez leading his likely opponent 49/34.
New Jersey has 15 EV and has been expected to be a solid part of Obama's base of 239 EV.
A new Roanoke College poll (607 adults,±4.0% MoE, 2/13 -2/26) shows a virtual tie between Obama and Romney in VA: 42/43 (R +1) with a large 16% undecided. Obama would beat Paul by ten points (45/35) and Santorum by six (45/39).
An interesting question in this survey regarding the Tea Party movement:
31. From what you have heard about the Tea Party movement, do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with their views or don't you know enough to have an opinion either way?
Strongly agree 12% (50)
Agree 26% (108)
Neutral 14% (58)
Disagree 25% (104)
Strongly disagree 23% (98)
38% agree with the Tea Party "views", while 48% disagree. It's not 2010 anymore, folks.
Another revealing question in the VA survey involved the economy:
16. Who do you think is MOST responsible for the current economic conditions in the United States? [ROTATE] President Obama., former President George W. Bush, Republicans in Congress, Democrats in Congress, or financial institutions?
President Obama 19% (114)
Former President George W. Bush 23% (135)
Republicans in Congress 11% (64)
Democrats in Congress 9% (53)
Financial institutions 22% (131)
Unsure/Someone else 17% (100)
A mere 19% blame the President for the current economic conditions. This does not bode well for the Republican narratives.
While social issues have become more prominent in the Republican primaries and caucuses, Virginians are still focused on the economy. When asked the most important problem facing the country today, the top three issues were the economy in general (43%), unemployment (24%), and the budget deficit (9%). All other issues combined comprised only 24 percent of responses, with none exceeding 4 percent. Virginians are still most likely to blame former President George W. Bush for current economic conditions (23%), while 22 percent blame financial institutions and 19 percent blame President Obama. The "blame" percentages show a slight increase for Obama and slight decreases for Bush and banks since September. On a related issue, those disagreeing with the Tea Party movement now outnumber supporters 48%-38%, a margin slightly greater than last September's (37%-29%).Virginia is one of the swing States that so far has been seen as leaning to Obama, and its 13 EV are a critical part of Obama's path to 270 EV. In 2008, Obama won VA 53/47.
Other VA polling:
- PPP (600 RV, ±4.0% MoE, 12/11 - 12/13) Obama over Romney 48/42.
- Quinnipiac (1544 RV, ±2.5% MoE, 2/1 - 2/6) Obama over Romney 47/43.
Apparently Rasmussen is only willing to go out on a limb so far in his ridiculous results, as he gives Obama a 5-point lead in WI.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the Badger State finds Obama ahead of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 47% to 42%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
In a matchup with former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Obama leads 46% to 41% among Wisconsin voters. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) remain undecided.
This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.Wisconsin (10 EV) has been expected to be a solid part of Obama's base of 239 EV. In 2008, Obama won the State 56/43.
Another new poll from PPP (900 RV, ±3.27%, 2/23 -2/26) gives the President a big lead in Wisconsin.
He's ahead by 14% over Romney (53/39), which is far more than Rasmussen's flaky survey. They were in the field at almost the same time, using the same automated telephone polling method, yet PPP finds a lead that's nearly three times larger than the one Rasmussen found. Can we really chalk this up to Rasmussen's secret "likely voter" screen? I sincerely doubt it.
PPP's Tom Jensen notes a phenomenon in common with many of the state polling his organisation has been doing since last year:
There might not be any state that better represents Barack Obama's improved fortunes in the opening months of 2012 than Wisconsin. When we polled there in late October Obama's approval was a 44/51 spread and he led Mitt Romney by only 3 points at 46-43, representing a much closer race than the state had in 2008. Now those numbers have shifted significantly, with Obama's approval basically flipping to 52/44. And he now leads Romney 53-39, a 14 point margin that matches what he won against John McCain there.
Wisconsin voters are split down the middle in terms of whether to recall Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 49%-49%, but a closer look at prospective matchups suggests that Walker is headed for the battle of his political life to survive a recall challenge. Walker’s approval rating sits at 47% approval and 52% disapproval.Rasmussen, of course, says otherwise:
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely Wisconsin Voters at least somewhat approve of Walker’s job performance to date, while 46% at least somewhat disapprove. These findings include 40% who Strongly Approve of how the Republican governor is doing and just as many (40%) who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on February 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.Aside from the Roanoke Virginia poll, these polls all tend to confirm the conventional wisdom.
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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:
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