Marist: Obama strong in OH

A new poll of Ohio, a crucial swing state in the 2012 election, shows Obama with a strong lead.

Marist released a poll (3079 RV, ±1.8% MoE, 2/29 - 3/2) showing Obama leading Romney 50/38 in OH. 

From the release:

Obama Leads Possible GOP Rivals
How does the field of Republican candidates fare in Ohio against President Obama?

• Obama leads Paul, 48% to 38%.  13% are undecided.
• 50% support Obama compared with 38% for Romney.  12% are undecided.
• 50% of registered voters back Obama compared with 36% for Santorum.  14% are undecided.
• Obama — 51% — leads Gingrich – 36%.  13% are undecided.

Obama manages 50% in the match-up, in spite of an even break in approval:

45% of registered voters in Ohio approve of how President Obama is doing in office.  45%, however, disapprove, and 9% are unsure.

So, Romney is unable to pick up 7% of OH registered voters who are unhappy with Obama. Does that sound like a strong candidate to you?

It's even worse when you look at the party ID breakdown:

Ohio voters are more likely to identify as independents than they were in a similar poll conducted in October 2008.  35% of registered voters now consider themselves to be independent compared with 31% at that time.  Republican identification has decreased from 31% to 26%, and Democrats are little changed.  They went from 37% in 2008 to 38% now.

“President Obama’s advantage over his potential challengers in Ohio is underscored by the fact that more voters support him over the GOP field than approve of his job performance,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

So Romney is drawing 12% above his base partisan support. And Obama is drawing 12% above his partisan base support. That would be okay if Romney's partisan base of support hadn't dropped 5% since the last election - which the Republicans lost. 

Obama now has a twelve-point lead over Romney in a State that Republicans cannot afford to lose. 

Gov. Kasich is slightly underwater in his "favourables": 40/43, with 17% unsure.

And this shows the real "value" of those right track/wrong track poll metrics:

Majority Says Nation on the Wrong Track

55% of Ohio registered voters think things in the nation are off on the wrong track while 40% believe they are moving in the right direction. Five percent are unsure.

If a majority of OH registered voters believe that we are on the "wrong track", how can Obama get 50% in a match-up? Maybe this is a stupid metric to judge the President's electoral chances by. Maybe it reflects dissatisfaction with Republicans as much as it reflects a liability for Obama. 

Also, the poll shows a strong lead for the Democratic candidate in the Senate race:

If Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown were to face off against Republican challenger Josh Mandel, what are Mandel’s chances of victory? As the contest stands, Brown leads Mandel, 47% to 37%. 16% are undecided.

Ohio has 20 EV, and is a "must win" state for the Republicans. As was discussed previously,  if Obama wins OH, he is virtually guaranteed to win the needed 270 electoral votes (EV) for victory - as things stand now.

Electoral math:

Republicans must also mind their defences in MO, NV and AZ, as they are only narrowly going to the Republicans currently. They certainly can't afford to see these base States slip away, especially since Texas is only in their favour by 7 points. Texas is the "crown jewel" of the Republican election strategy. Without TX and its 34 EV, there is no hope for a Republican to win the White House. It's still solid for them now, but it might be a swing state in 2016.

Assuming Obama can win CO and VA, he then only needs to win one of these States: PA, OH, NC, or FL. We already see him ahead in OH.

Colorado looks close, and a recent poll set VA as a virtual tie. Both add up to 23 EV. Winning OH or PA would mostly offset losing the coin flip twice in CO and VA. 

Winning both OH and PA would mean that Obama would probably win the national election. 

It's a good thing that Obama is leading in both of those States, then.

Rasmussen gave leads to Obama in VA (49/43 O +6).

Republicans are in bad position at the moment. They have to basically win three coin flips in a row: CO, FL, NC. If they lose one of those, Obama wins. 

NH is another coin flip, but only has 4 EV. It might come into play if the Republicans win CO and VA, but lose PA and OH. 

This is why any polling of CO, FL, or NC will be closely watched.

Obama has a solid base of 239 EV right here:

CA (55), OR (7), WA (11), NM (5), MN (10), MI (17), IL (21), NY (31), MA (12), VT (3), ME (4), RI (4), DC (3), MD (10), DE (3), NJ (15), IA (7), WI (10), CT (7), HI (4)

Previous polling for OH:

PPP's November 2011 polling shows Obama with a 9-point lead in OH.
In 2/12 polling by PPP,  Obama leads by 6 points.
Rasmussen, for what it's worth, shows Obama with a 4 point lead over Romney and tying Santorum.

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 Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections: