The latest PPP survey of Wisconsin (900RV, ±3.27% MoE, 2/23 -2/26) is out, and it's no longer 2010. The poll also included 556 likely Republican primary voters (±4.16% MoE) to round out their conclusions on where the Party is at.
Let's look at what PPP's Tom Jensen has to say regarding the Republican field in WI:
All the Republican presidential challengers are suffering from negative favorability ratings of 50% of more. Santorum’s rating among Wisconsin voters comes in at 37% favorable and 50% unfavorable, and it only gets worse from there: Romney is at 25/61, Ron Paul is at 23/59, and Newt Gingrich is at 19/68.
“Wisconsin was a swing state in 2000 and 2004,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But in 2008 it shifted to being safely Democratic and it looks like that trend is going to continue in 2012.”
Even among just Republican voters, only Rick Santorum is viewed favorably by a majority of voters in his own party with a 67/18 rating. The three other Republican candidates have worse ratings among Wisconsin Republicans: Newt Gingrich is at 35/48, Mitt Romney is at 49/34 and Ron Paul is at 29/53.
This is what pollsters (e.g. Ann Selzer) and pundits are missing when they focus on Obama's weak job approval numbers: the Republican candidates are even less popular than Obama. Even Gallup says so.
There just isn't a strong "anybody but Obama" sentiment outside of the Republican base, but these pollsters and pundits are fixated on the Republican base. Polling continues to show that this base is out of the mainstream in opinion. Even Rasmussen says that 52% of "likely voters" consider the Republican agenda to be "extreme", and only 35% consider that Party to be "mainstream". Yet, many keep on pretending that 35% is a majority, and they mindlessly contend that Obama's lack of appeal to that 35% dooms him in some nebulous way.
Further, these same people put forth the odd idea that approval is very important when determining if people will vote for Democrats, but relatively meaningless when it comes to voting for Republicans. This is part of the entire narrative that disaffected voters will rally to the Republican nominee once he is chosen, and forget about how they never really liked that guy very much before.
How out of touch does a person have to be to imagine that a considerable number of non-Republicans are simply waiting for the Republican Party to tell them who to vote for?
- Obama's job approval is at 52%, with 44% disapproving. But he's a hated tyrant, right?
- Obama leads Romney in a match-up 53/39, with 8% undecided. Even if every undecided voter went for Romney, it wouldn't overcome Obama's 14% lead. And, even if the MoE broke entirely in Romney's favour, it wouldn't result in Romney winning.
- Santorum would be the long shot here: 49/43 in a match-up, with 8% undecided. If undecided voters break strongly in Santorum's favour, and the MoE falls to the Republicans, Santorum could have a narrow victory in WI.
- WI went 56/43 for Obama in 2008. This poll's sample breaks 52/40 on those who voted for Obama/McCain in 2008, so it's one point tilted in the Republicans' favour. This pretty much lays to rest any claims of Democratic bias in the sample.
- Moderates strongly approve of Obama (67/27), leaving that Republican base out in the cold. In a match-up with Romney, moderates break similarly (67/24). This makes it difficult to believe that voters who are not already firmly in the Republican camp would "jump ship" once a nominee is chosen.
- There is no real gender gap in Romney's "favourables". He is unliked by about 60% of both men and women, yet he wins 42% of men in a match-up with Obama. 11% of women who do not see him favourably still break for him in a match-up with Obama.
- Obama wins Independent voters 57/33, with only 10% undecided, in a match-up with Romney. How does this reinforce the current Republican narrative that voters outside of the Republican base are simply waiting for the nominee to be chosen? It looks as if there's not enough "undecided" Independents to swing this election.
- Santorum loses Independent voters 51/38 to Obama in a match-up, with 11% undecided.
- Obama wins a slim majority of white voters (51%), while Romney only gets 41% of that crucial Republican demographic.
- Obama has a majority approving his job performance in all ages under 65. Those 65+ only break a mere 4% to the "disapprove" side.
- In a match-up with Ron Paul, Obama wins the 18-29 age group by more than 3-1 (!). Yet another State where that Paul "youth vote" is non-existent.
- The 65+ age demographic is the strongest for Republicans in a match-up between Obama and either Romney or Santorum. Yet, either Republican merely breaks even with Obama in this crucial Republican demographic.
- Voters who are not in a union merely break even (45/45) in match-up between Obama and Romney. Yet, the Republican narrative is that "only the unions" support Obama. Santorum has only a narrow 4-point edge over Obama in this same demographic in a match-up with Obama.
Among the likely Republican primary voters, Santorum is the favourite, but his support is soft:
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 10%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 8%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 27%
Rick Santorum................................................ 43%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 12%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 38%
Might end up supporting someone else .......... 62%
The Tea Party loves Santorum. 82% of Santorum's 67% Republican favourables self-identify as Tea Party members. Romney just breaks even with the Tea Party.
Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:
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