I'm having to catch up with PPP's latest poll on NC (804 RV, ±3.5% MoE, 3/8 - 3/11), which places Obama three points ahead of Romney in a match-up.
PPP's Tom Jensen writes:Whoever the Republican nominee is Barack Obama has an advantage over him right now. Obama leads Romney by 3 points, 49-46. That's up from a 1 point lead a month ago. And Obama's ahead of Santorum by 5 points, 49-44. That's up from a 2 point lead in February. Obama's up 48-41 on Ron Paul and 51-42 on Newt Gingrich.
Obama's breaking even on his approval numbers in the state with 49% giving him good marks and 49% poor ones. This is the first time since last June Obama hasn't been under water in North Carolina. Obama hit a low water mark in September 43/53. He's seen modest improvement with Democrats and Republicans since then, but the really big shift is with independents. He's gone from 31/62 with them to 46/51- they're still not fond of him but he's coming a lot closer to breaking even now than he did six months ago.
Part of Obama's good numbers in North Carolina are a function of his own improved popularity, but he's also benefiting from the poor image of his opponents. As we're finding in most swing states Mitt Romney is very unpopular with only 31% of voters seeing him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. Rick Santorum doesn't do much better- his favorability spread is 36/52.
As much as the Republican base screeches about the unpopular President, it's clear in poll after poll that their front-runner is even more unpopular.
Let's look at the ideological breakdown of this poll's sample:
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 25%
Very conservative ........................................... 20%
Using simple arithmetic, we can see that self-described conservatives are 45% of the sample, and only 27% are liberal. Of course, this has not prevented partisan wingnuts from dismissing this poll as biased toward "the Far Left". With the largest group describing themselves as "moderates", I guess the new definition of "Far Left" is "moderate". Because, in the mind of a wingnut, any poll showing Republicans losing is "biased".
As we see above, the race in 2008 was very close for NC. Let's look at PPP's Dustin Ingalls' response to a critic for an explanation of what, exactly, has changed in NC since 2008 (emphasis added):
Mark: You obviously don't know anything about NC, which is one of the fastest-growing states in the country, and has been for 20 years. Some estimate that a third of the state's population did not live here four years ago. Most of the voters who move here are more liberal than the natives and more educated. We asked in a poll one month last year when respondents first lived in NC, and those who moved here or were born 20 years ago or after were going for Obama by 20 points over Romney. (Tom Jensen and I are among this group.) That was a huge chunk of the electorate, and this was when Obama was in worse shape than he is now.
So Obama's decline with independents and and moderate/conservative Dems is buffered by the sheer demographic shifts taking place in this state, plus his continuing popularity with black and Hispanic voters (and growing popularity with the latter because of Republican rhetoric on immigration). That's why you see him holding his ground or even improving in other growing, diverse states like VA, CO, NM, and AZ relative to states which are declining in population and which are older and whiter, like OH, PA, NH, and most of the Midwest.
I recall, during the 2008 election, dealing with conservatives fixated on the results of 2004 (and even 2000) in states to "prove" that Obama couldn't win. In the response above, "Mark" claims that, since Obama is now 'known', he cannot win over any Republican. Sadly, this is a pretty standard level of 'analysis' from conservatives. Voter demographics change, and time is not on the side of the GOP. By tying themselves to a 1950's-style morality and mindset, dismissing virtually all Hispanics as "illegals", and virtually all African-American votes as "fraudulent", the Republicans have locked themselves into an older, whiter voting base. And they aren't even strongly carrying that older and whiter demographic.
Let's look at the highlights of this poll:
- In job approval, Obama wins moderates by more than 2-to-1 (67/30). Romney's "favourables" with moderates are reversed (24/65). Yet, per the wingnut narrative, Obama is on the "Far Left".
- In a a match-up with Romney, Obama carries moderates by more than 2-to-1 (64/28).
- Obama's job approval numbers show a strong gender gap. Women view him more favourably (55/42), while males are the opposite (41/56). Males are turning out to be a crucial demographic in the Republican base in this election.
- Romney's "favourables", however, are lousy for both genders. Women break a negative 28/57, while men break a negative 34/55. This means that Romney is viewed less favourably by men than Obama is.
- When matched up with Romney, these male favourables go out the window. Women break in Obama's favour 55/39, which is in line with their approvals. Men break in Romney's favour 54/42, although only 34% of men have a favourable opinion of Romney. This is classic "soft support", with males breaking along the lines of their approval of the incumbent, rather than the alternative.
- Obama's job approval with Independents (as mentioned by Jensen) are negative (46/51), but their view of Romney is even worse (36/53).
- Independents, however, break for Romney is a match-up (44/49). That leaves 8% of Independents breaking for a candidate (Romney) that they don't view favourably. Again, soft support.
- Romney wins white voters 57/37, but Republicans will have to do better than 57% of this crucial demographic in order to win.
- Obama wins a majority of voters 45 or younger when matched up with Romney. Romney, however, only breaks even with voters over 45.
In summary, we see that the conservative base (despite being 45% of the sample) is isolated in public opinion. There is a strong breaking point between moderates (and liberals, of course) and those who consider themselves to be more conservative. Romney (and the other candidates) simply fail to appeal beyond the conservative base in significant percentages.
We also see soft support for Romney among males and Independent voters. Voting demographics with soft support usually do not donate money or volunteer for a campaign, and they do not "talk up" a candidate to to others in their peer group. Rather than swinging to the other side, they tend to sit out elections if their opinion of their candidate sours further - or if their view of the opponent becomes more favourable. Undecided voters in demographics showing soft support are also much less likely to show up at the polls.
Older voters are also unreliable for Romney. He's underwater with voters 45 or older by more than 20 points, and only breaking even in a match-up. 14% of his match-up support among voters 65+ doesn't view him favourably. This hardly seems like a solid base to build a culture war upon.
North Carolina is a crucial State for the Republican path to 270 electoral votes (EV), which is what it takes to win the Presidency. Without NC and its 15 EV, the GOP has to win every toss-up State. Even then, it's a dicey proposition to get to 270 EV. For Obama, winning NC opens up several possibilities to reach 270 EV.
If CO and VA go to Obama, the addition of NC would allow him to lose FL, PA, OH, NH, and all of the Republican-leaning toss-up States - while still winning re-election.
With PA currently polling Obama ahead, PA + NC would allow Obama to lose CO, IA, FL, OH, NH and all of the Republican-leaning toss-ups - and still reach 270 EV.
So the Republican effort to win the White House pretty much hangs on which way NC goes, and Republican partisans are reduced to crowing over a possible tie within the margin of error (MoE), or dismissing the polling completely as 'biased'. I fail to see how having an election depend on a virtual coin toss in NC is a positive thing for the GOP, but that seems to be their current optimistic scenario.
Also, having Obama showing positive momentum in NC with Independents is hardly a good omen for Republicans. Voters are unlikely to be convinced that Obama is scary at this point. The key is for Romney to be seen more favourably, but the extended primary is making that less and less likely by the day. With the rabid Republican base pushing Romney further and further toward the Right, these numbers we are seeing now could easily become the Republican high-water mark in NC for 2012.
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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:
