I should take some time to examine the 3/8 PPP (Dkos/SEIU) national poll.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure All 48 47 4 Women 54 42 4 Men 43 52 5 Democrat 86 10 5 Republican 10 88 2 Independent/Other 40 52 7
We see Obama essentially breaking even with the general electorate, while losing Independents by 12. We also see the now-familiar gender gap, with Obama coming out ahead in the net (+12 women, -9 men).
This is a noticeable improvement over last week's breakdown (3/1):
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure All 47 49 4 Women 52 43 4 Men 41 55 4 Democrat 83 14 3 Republican 9 89 2 Independent/Other 43 49 8
Most important is the small closing of the gender gap in Obama's favour, and a slight increase in his base support.
Approval from moderates increased by six points from the 3/1 results, whites increased by 3, while Hispanics showed a steep 20% drop in approval while remaining in positive territory (53/36). Obama also picked up 3 points of approval in the South, and 7 points from the 18-29 age demographic.
In the generic match-up, Obama leads by 3 (49/46):
Generally speaking, if there was an election today would you vote to re-elect Barack Obama, or would you vote for his Republican opponent?
Barack Obama Republican opponent Not sure All 49 46 5 Women 56 40 4 Men 42 51 6 Democrat 87 10 4 Republican 8 87 5 Independent/Other 44 48 8
Once again, the net effect of the gender gap is positive for Obama (+16 for women, -9 for men). Democratic support is right up at the level of approval, which shows strength. Independents break more in favour of Obama than their approval would indicate, which shows weakness with those voters. Not surprisingly, Independent voters show more uncertainty than other demographics.
Bear in mind, though, that this generic match-up represents the best-case scenario for Republicans. When it comes down to a match-up with actual, named candidates, Obama does much better.
Hispanic voters, in spite of their approval drop, still break strongly for Obama in this generic match-up (56/33). This is virtually the same as the last poll (2/23), in which Hispanics broke 59/34 in Obama's favour.
Voters in the South moved only very slightly more toward Obama in net: 46/49 from a previous 44/50. Voters in the Midwest showed negligible change: 45/48 from 45/46.
When it comes to voting enthusiasm, the national average went up: 81% from the previous (2/23) 77%. Of that 81% who are at least "somewhat excited" to vote, 54% are "very excited". These numbers are the standards by which other demographics are judged to "above average" or not.
Both Democratic and Republican partisans are above average in enthusiasm, but the Democrats have the advantage: 62% "very excited" to the Republicans' 57% "very excited".
Independent voters show a depressed enthusiasm, with only 69% excited and only 35% of them "very excited" to vote. These numbers are well below the national average, though only 8% are disinterested. Women are about average at 79% (53% "very excited"), those aged 65+ are just slightly below average at 78% (50% "very excited"), and likewise for white voters at 79% excited (50% "very excited"). Men are about average at 82% (54% "very excited"). When you include the 21% of women who are "not at all excited", compared to the men's 18% "not at all excited", we see a slight advantage for the males in possible turnout at this early stage.
The Tea Party is average in total at 81%, but show a much higher 60% who are "very excited". Those outside the Tea Party, for comparison, show an 82% enthusiasm with a lower (but still average) 53% "very excited". The Tea Party, per the demographics, is only 29% of the electorate. Those outside it are 60%, with 11% "not sure". Since you can't vote with an exclamation point, the 6% "very excited" advantage seems to wash out in proportion to the size of the Tea Party's vote. Added to that is an identical 19% "not at all excited" for both those in and out of the Tea Party, and you see that a significant number of those Tea Party members may not even turn out at all. Those "not sure" about their Tea Party affiliation break strongly for the generic Republican (62/28), but approximately one-quarter of them are uninterested in voting at this point, and those that are show only a very below-average 42% "very excited" figure.
Moderates, too, show depressed enthusiasm. Only 78% are excited (3% below average), but more telling is that only 48% (6% below average) are "very excited" and 21% are disinterested. While this demographic breaks strongly for Obama (66/29), actual turnout may not be strong.
In terms of actual job approval for Obama:
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve Disapprove Not sure All 48 49 3 Women 53 44 3 Men 43 55 2 Democrat 84 12 3 Republican 10 89 2 Independent/Other 42 56 3
Independents are breaking for Obama 6 points above their approval. There is less uncertainty about approval than there is about the choices in the match-up. 3% isn't much room for Republicans to work an effective scare campaign against Obama, nor a "failed President" narrative. The 8% of unsure Independents provides some hope for the GOP, though this is just under 2% of the electorate, and the enthusiasm of this demographic is not encouraging for such an effort.
On the recent Rush Limbaugh controversy, the poll results are not encouraging for the Republicans:
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rush Limbaugh?
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure All 26 58 16 Women 22 61 17 Men 30 56 14 Democrat 8 83 10 Republican 52 27 21 Independent/Other 20 61 19
If you want an issue that could potentially sway Independent voters, this is it. And Limbaugh has a lot more of the same vitriol to release at ill-timed moments.
Not much in the way of support for the GOP's crusade. Keep digging that hole, Republicans.Did you think the comments Rush Limbaugh made about Sandra Fluke last week were appropriate or inappropriate?
Appropriate Inappropriate Not sure All 16 70 14 Women 11 71 18 Men 21 70 9 Democrat 7 84 9 Republican 28 55 17 Independent/Other 14 69 17
Does this look like the nation's voters are clamouring for Republican 'solutions'?Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party?
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure All 31 56 12 Women 28 58 14 Men 35 55 10 Democrat 7 84 9 Republican 68 20 12 Independent/Other 19 62 19
Is is pretty safe to say that The Republican Party wishes that it were as popular as those "unpopular" Democrats? Even that crucial male demographic sees the Democratic Party about as favourably as the Republicans. It also looks like it would be an easier task to swing Independents toward the Democrats than it would be to swing them toward the Republicans. And there's a lot fewer people that are "unsure" about the Democratic Party than the GOP.Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party?
Favorable Unfavorable Not sure All 44 47 9 Women 51 39 10 Men 38 54 9 Democrat 82 11 7 Republican 8 86 6 Independent/Other 31 51 18
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