In the crucial swing State of Pennsylvania, PPP 's latest poll (689 RV, ±3.7% MoE, 3/8/ - 3/11) finds Obama taking a lead over Romney. The President's job approval figures have improved slightly since PPP's last survey (11/11), but he only has a two-point lead over Santorum.
Barack Obama's numbers in Pennsylvania are the best they've been in 10 PPP polls of the state taken since he was elected President. He now leads Mitt Romney by a 7 point margin in the state, 49-42.
Pennsylvania voters are evenly divided on Obama's performance with 47% approving and an equal 47% disapproving of the job he's doing. That's a big improvement from Obama's numbers in the state over the course of 2011, which came in at 42/53, 46/48, 42/52, and 46/49 on our four polls of the state. Obama's numbers are up across the board when it compared to our November poll- with Democrats he's gone from 69/26 to 74/21, with Republicans he's gone from 9/85 to 15/78, and with independents he's gone from 45/53 to 52/41.
Once again, we see that the Republican front-runner, Romney, is much less popular than the supposedly hated Obama:
In addition to Obama's approval numbers improving, Romney's image has taken a hit in the state over the last 3 months. His favorability numbers were already bad at 32/51, but now they're worse at 30/60.
With Rasmussen having already crowned Romney as the nominee (and giving him big leads over Obama since that point in his skewed polls), it might be interesting to note that, nationally, Gallup is seeing a lack of enthusiasm for this nominee among Republicans:
The 35% of Republicans who at this point say they would vote "enthusiastically" for Mitt Romney for president if he were to win the GOP nomination is identical to the 35% of Republicans who said the same about Romney back in late January/early February 2008.
In that same 2008 poll, however, 47% of Republicans said they would vote enthusiastically for John McCain, who ended up as that year's GOP nominee. In short, Romney's enthusiasm deficit in 2008 has carried over to his current campaign, with the difference being that none of the other nominees this year are generating any more enthusiasm among Republicans than Romney is.
This pretty much confirms what many people have been saying for a while now: Republicans are voting against Obama, not for any kind of "conservative alternative".
But, national Republican views aside, this PA poll is good news. Rasmussen posted a virtual tie in his February poll, which was mysteriously in the field for 15 days to find 438 "likely voters". Up until now, PPP's average of four polls showed basically what Rasmussen found, with the last poll (11/22/11) showing a 45/45 tie with Romney.
Other polling for PA:
- Franklin and Marshall (592 RV, ±4.0%, 2/14 - 2/20): Obama leads by 8 points.
- Muhlenberg (625 RV, ±4% MoE, 2/15 - 2/21): Obama leads by 11 points.
- Quinnipiac (1256 RV, ±2.8% MoE, 3/7 -3/12): Obama leads by 6 points.
Let's dig into the latest PPP poll highlights:
- Obama won PA in 2008, 55/44. In this survey we see:
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 46%
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%
So, the survey sample shows eight points less than reality for the Democrats, and two points stronger than reality for the Republicans. Let's not bother pretending that this is some left-wing sample here.
- Romney is seen only marginally positive by those who voted for McCain in 2008 (47/42). Yet, in a match-up with Obama, Romney wins 76% of those former McCain voters. That's soft support.
- Obama has strong job approval from moderates, breaking 67/24. Romney has the reverse when it comes to "favourables" with moderates (23/67).
- In a match-up with Romney, Obama wins moderates 3-1 (68/21). Outside of that conservative base, Republicans just aren't that popular. Obama even wins 24% of those who self-identify as "somewhat conservative".
- In a match-up with Romney, Obama wins women voters by 12 points (50/38), and breaks even with males (48/47). With males turning out to be a critical demographic for the Republicans this election, they can't afford to just break even with them in match-ups.
- Romney has underwater "favourables" with Republicans (40/46).
- Romney basically just breaks even with white voters (47/45), which is another crucial demographic for Republicans.
- Romney narrowly wins voters aged 65+ (47/44, R +3). Yet another crucial demographic that looks weak.
I look at the electoral math here.
Basically, if Obama can win VA, then winning PA (21 EV) will put him over 270 electoral votes (EV), which means that he wins. That assumes that he wins IA, which Ann Selzer's recent poll might call into question.
It's a good thing, then, that PPP just polled NC (15 EV) with a three-point lead for Obama. That allows him to lose IA and CO, and still win.
On top of that, Obama leads in OH (20 EV) currently. And FL is a coin flip; if the Republicans lose that coin toss, they lose everything.
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