Gallup shows Obama with positive favourables

Gallup polling has been consistent in showing lower approval ratings for Obama than many other pollsters. Rather than using a true daily tracker, Gallup uses a three-day rolling average to smooth out the day-to-day noise that plagues pollsters such as Rasmussen. Even though Gallup has been relatively pessimistic on the President's approval, the trend has been improving since October of last year.

You may recall Ann Selzer's Iowa poll showing Ron Paul winning the State, and Obama losing to both Romney and Santorum there. In justifying her outlier numbers, Selzer invoked Gallup's magical 49% approval threshold:

No president has been re-elected with a national approval rating under 49 percent, according to Gallup polling dating to 1964. It’s a watershed mark, and about 8½ months from the election, Gallup national polling Saturday had Obama at 46 percent — underwater.

 Of course, Selzer neglected to consider that even Gallup says that the Republican candidates are even less popular than Obama. 

Now Obama is creeping up to 48% approval on the Gallup tracker. He's been narrowing the gap throughout February, as well.

Feb 29-Mar 2, 2012 –

Obama Approval

48% +1

Obama Disapproval

46% -1

 We are beginning to see a divide in the polling world. A relative few have invested heavily in the notion of an unpopular President, based largely on 2010. They see, and find in their survey results, a pervasive Republican tilt. A large number of other pollsters have found that the Republican "wave" brought in a lot of people that are now unpopular, and they also find the current Republican candidates to be unpopular, too. 

It all comes down to if you believe that 2010 is over or not. Unfortunately for those on the Right, they saw 2010 as a huge Republican base overwhelming a tiny number of "libs". Instead, it was a case of a large number of Independent voters taking a gamble on Republicans, who seemed to have all of the answers in their vague plans. 

That Republican base is smaller than it was in 2010, but if you live in that world, you see that 2010 is still very much alive. Those people still see vast numbers of Independent voters cheering them on, and imagine that these Independents will join them if Republicans can just get "conservative enough". 

In order to support this delusional narrative, survey results must show an unpopular President and they must show Independent voters breaking for Republicans in match-ups. At the very least, they must show that Independents as considering the Republicans in a more favourable light than Obama. In other words, Republicans need better "favourables" than Obama among Independent voters. They also need polling to show that Republicans are winning match-ups by a larger percentage than makes up the core Republican base. So these are things to look for in any poll.