Quinnipiac: Obama leads VA by 8

Yet another poll showing Virginia going for Obama. This time, it's Quinnipiac (1035 RV, ±3.1% MoE, 3/13 - 3/18) with Obama winning a match-up with Romney 50/42. 

"President Barack Obama has opened up some daylight in Virginia against his Republican challengers," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "His margin over Romney, in the state where Obama has been struggling after his win in 2008, compares to a slight 47 - 43 percent lead in February."

"The president's lead over Romney in Virginia is due mainly to his strong margin among women, 52 - 39 percent, but he also wins 48 percent of men to Romney's 45 percent."

Obama leads 97 - 2 percent among Democrats and gets 46 percent of independent voters to Romney's 43 percent. Romney is ahead among Republicans 84 - 6 percent.

 Previous polling for VA:

• Marist (2518 RV, ±2.0% MoE, 2/29 - 3/2) - 52/35 (O +17)
• PPP (600 RV, ±4.0 MoE, 12/11 - 12/13) 48/42 (O +6)
• Quinnipiac  (1544 RV, ±2.5% MoE, 2/1 - 2/6) 47/43 (O +4)
• Rasmussen  (500 LV, ±4.5% MoE, 2/21) 49/43 (O +6)

Meanwhile, Republicans are hanging their hat on a Roanoke College poll (607 adults, ±4.0% MoE, 2/13 -2/26) that shows a virtual tie 42/43 (R +1) with a large 16% undecided. Naturally, Republicans see the other five polls as "outliers"and this single poll as the "real" one. 

We now have a trend by the same pollster, Quinnipiac, showing Obama gaining four points in the margin over Romney since February. 

In addition, we have the latest results by the worthless Rasmussen also showing Obama with a nine-point lead over Romney in VA:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds the president leading former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by nine points - 51% to 42%. It was a six-point race a month ago – Obama 49%, Romney 43%. Four percent (4%) now prefer another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on March 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

 Rasmussen also shows Obama's lead increasing since February. On top of that, the worthless Rasmussen shows Obama leading in the "Core Four" states, which includes VA:

President Obama holds modest leads over both Republican front-runners in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Obama now picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 42% in those states. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 17-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

 Five points is a "modest lead" in the four most crucial States for Republicans to win, I guess. Previously, he found a four-point lead for Obama in the "Core Four", and in late February Obama was tied with Romney. So it's increasing, but "modest". 


VA is a crucial State in the election, with 13 EV. Added to Obama's base of 239 EV, it pushes him up to 252 EV. 

From there, Obama only needs 18 EV to win.

A win in OH, PA, or FL means that Obama wins the election, if VA goes to the Democrats. Obama only needs to win one, and he currently leads in two of these States. He also has a buffer of 13 EV in NC, which PPP shows him leading by 3 points, in case IA (7 EV) goes to Romney. 

Of course, FL is a toss-up. If the Republicans lose that coin flip, it's all over. Florida's 27 EV would put Obama well over 270 EV if he wins VA. Without VA, FL would bring him to 266 with just his solid base added to that. Obama would have to lose OH and PA, along with every other coin flip, to lose in that case. 

Meanwhile, Romney has a solid base of about 181 EV. He has to win CO, FL, NC, PA, and OH or he's out. That's pretty grim. 

PPP showed Romney behind by seven points in PA. Marist showed Romney losing by double digits in OH. If Romney loses in either of these States, it's over.