Can a "rally" save Romney in OH?

The current delusion from conservatives is that, after the nomination, Republicans will "rally" to their nominee and provide the edge needed for a Romney victory. 

I'm going to examine the recent polling of one swing State and determine how realistic this "rally" scenario really is. 

Quinnipiac polled OH (1246 RV, ±2.8% MoE, 3/20 - 3/26) and found Obama leading 47/41. The survey's demographics are here. The cross-tabs are here. 

The weighted numbers from the sample show 29% self-identify as Republicans. These Republicans break 83/7 for Romney when matched up against Obama. Beyond that, 4% "don't know", 2% "won't vote", and 3% will vote for "someone else". 

Let's assume that the 7% of Republicans saying they will vote for Obama flip to Romney, and that all 4% undecided Republicans also rally to Romney. This is 11% of the Republicans. 11% of 29% is a whopping 3.2% of the general electorate. Obama leads by six. 

This, then, is the conclusion: if every Republican in Ohio flips to Romney, and actually turns out to vote, Obama would still win the state by about three points. There is about 5% margin of error (MoE) in the Republican-only sample, which could go either way. The best-case scenario is that a Republican "rally" could put Romney ahead by two points, and that's stretching at the limits of reality here. 

Whatever it would take to rally every Republican would probably alienate Independent voters (33% of the sample). Even a five-point gain for Obama among Independents would make the race a virtual toss-up, and that would occur if half of the undecided Independents voted for Obama. If Obama won over the 5% of undecided Democrats (33% of the sample), that would also make the race a virtual toss-up. Again, this is taking into account the unrealistic assumption that all of the poll's margin of error falls to Romney's advantage. If only half of the MoE falls on Romney's side, then Obama narrowly wins.

Romney fails to win a majority of white voters (45/41), with 7% undecided. With the white vote as 83% of the sample, Romney would gain 5.8% of the general electorate if he could pick up every undecided white voter. This would make the race a toss-up. He would need the MoE of 2.98% to actually pull ahead, but it would be a narrow victory.

A Republican "rally" could make OH a "toss-up" at best, and that's a coin flip that Romney cannot afford to lose. Obama, on the other hand, can afford to lose it and pick up those electoral votes in other States.

Can a "rally" save Romney in FL?

The current delusion from conservatives is that, after the nomination, Republicans will "rally" to their nominee and provide the edge needed for a Romney victory. 

I'm going to examine the recent polling of one swing State and determine how realistic this "rally" scenario really is. 

Quinnipiac polled FL (1228 RV, ±2.8% MoE, 3/20 - 3/26) and found Obama leading 49/42. The survey's demographics are here. The cross-tabs are here. 

The weighted numbers from the sample show 29% self-identify as Republicans. These Republicans break 87/7 for Romney when matched up against Obama. Beyond that, 4% "don't know", 1% "won't vote", and 1% will vote for "someone else". 

Let's assume that the 7% of Republicans saying they will vote for Obama flip to Romney, and that all 4% undecided Republicans also rally to Romney. This is 11% of the Republicans. 11% of 29% is a whopping 3.2% of the general electorate. Obama leads by seven. 

This, then, is the conclusion: if every Republican in Florida flips to Romney, and actually turns out to vote, Obama would still win the state by about four points. There is about 5% margin of error (MoE) in the Republican-only sample, which could go either way. The best-case scenario is that a Republican "rally" could put Romney ahead by one point, and that's stretching at the limits of reality here. 

Whatever it would take to rally every Republican would probably alienate Independent voters (33% of the sample). Even a five-point gain for Obama among Independents would wipe out that one-point Romney lead. If Obama won over the 4% of undecided Democrats (33% of the sample), that would also wipe out Romney's best-case lead. 

Romney wins only a slim majority of white voters (51/38), with 6% undecided. With the white vote as 71% of the sample, Romney would gain 4.3% of the general electorate if he could pick up every undecided white voter. He would need the MoE of 3.1% to actually pull ahead, and it would be less than a single-point lead. 

A Republican "rally" could make FL a "toss-up" at best, and that's a coin flip that Romney cannot afford to lose. Obama, on the other hand, can afford to lose it and pick up those electoral votes in other States.

Quinnipiac: Obama leads in FL, OH, PA

In a new poll from Quinnipiac, Obama leads in three crucial swing states: FL, OH, and PA. 

The GOP cannot afford to lose two of these States, and Obama basically has the election if he wins Florida. With VA looking bad for the Republicans, and CO, NV, and NH looking close, the GOP needs to win all three of these just to stay in contention. Let's look at the results:

Florida: (1228 RV, ±2.8% MoE, 3/20 - 3/26) 49/42 (O +7)

Florida voters give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and say 50 - 47 percent he deserves to be reelected.

The economy is in a recession, 68 percent of voters say, but 57 percent say it is beginning to recover. Romney would do a better job on the economy, 48 percent of voters say, while 45 percent pick the president, but Obama tops Santorum 50 - 39 percent on this issue.

Oil companies are most to blame for gas prices, 32 percent of voters say, while 23 percent blame oil-producing countries most; 18 percent blame Obama and 16 percent blame supply and demand.

Ohio:  (1246 RV, ±2.8% MoE, 3/20 - 3/26) 47/41 (O +6)

Ohio voters also give Obama a split 47 - 49 percent job approval rating, and split 48 - 48 percent on whether he deserves to be reelected.

The economy is in a recession, 68 percent of voters say, but 58 percent say it is beginning to recover. Voters split 45 - 45 percent on whether Obama or Romney would do a better job on the economy, but Obama tops Santorum 48 - 41 percent on this issue.

Oil companies are most to blame for gas prices, 39 percent of voters say, while 19 percent blame oil-producing countries most; 18 percent blame Obama and 14 percent blame supply and demand.

Pennsylvania:  (1232 RV, ±2.8% MoE, 3/20 - 3/26) 45/42 (O +3)

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 50 - 45 percent of the job Obama is doing, still negative but his best score in recent surveys, and say 50 - 46 percent he does not deserve to be reelected.

The economy is in a recession, 65 percent of voters say, but 57 percent say it is beginning to recover. Voters say 48 - 42 percent that Romney would do a better job on the economy than Obama, but Obama tops Santorum 49 - 41 percent on this issue.

Oil companies are most to blame for gas prices, 34 percent of voters say, while 25 percent blame oil-producing countries most; 17 percent blame Obama and 15 percent blame supply and demand.

Romney's favourables are, as in other States, worse than Obama's.

FL: 41/36 (Obama 47/49)

OH: 36/47 (Obama 47/49)

PA:  37/38 (Obama 45/50)

Previous polling for FL:

• Quinnipiac (1518 RV, ±2.5% MoE, 1/19 - 1/23) 45/45 (tie)
• PPP (700 RV, ±3.7% MoE, 11/28 -12-1) 45/44 (O +1)

Previous polling for PA:

• PPP (500 RV, ±4.4% MoE, 11/17 - 11/20) 45/45 (tie)
• Susquehanna (800 RV, ±3.5% MoE, 2/2 - 2/6) 45/43 (R +2)
• Muhlenberg (625 RV, ±4% MoE, 2/15 - 2/21) 48/37 (O +13)
• Franklin & Marshall (592 RV, ±4.0% MoE, 2/14 - 2/20) 41/33 (O +8)
• Rasmussen (438 LV, ±4.5% MoE, 2/8 -2/23) 45/44 (O +1) 
• PPP (689 RV, ±3.7% MoE, 3/8/ - 3/11) 49/42 (O +7)

Previous polling for OH:

• PPP (1022 RV, ±3.1% MoE, 11/4 - 11/6) 50/41 (O +9)
• PPP (820 RV, ±3.4% MoE, 1/28 - 1/29) 49/42 (O +7)
• Marist (3079 RV, ±1.8% MoE, 2/29 - 3/2) 50/38 (O +12) 

Additionally, the PurplePoll (1424 LV, ±2.6% MoE, 3/16 - 3/19) polled a composite of NH, OH, and PA. Obama led Romney 48/43 (O +5). 

Quinnipiac: Obama leads VA by 8

Yet another poll showing Virginia going for Obama. This time, it's Quinnipiac (1035 RV, ±3.1% MoE, 3/13 - 3/18) with Obama winning a match-up with Romney 50/42. 

"President Barack Obama has opened up some daylight in Virginia against his Republican challengers," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "His margin over Romney, in the state where Obama has been struggling after his win in 2008, compares to a slight 47 - 43 percent lead in February."

"The president's lead over Romney in Virginia is due mainly to his strong margin among women, 52 - 39 percent, but he also wins 48 percent of men to Romney's 45 percent."

Obama leads 97 - 2 percent among Democrats and gets 46 percent of independent voters to Romney's 43 percent. Romney is ahead among Republicans 84 - 6 percent.

 Previous polling for VA:

• Marist (2518 RV, ±2.0% MoE, 2/29 - 3/2) - 52/35 (O +17)
• PPP (600 RV, ±4.0 MoE, 12/11 - 12/13) 48/42 (O +6)
• Quinnipiac  (1544 RV, ±2.5% MoE, 2/1 - 2/6) 47/43 (O +4)
• Rasmussen  (500 LV, ±4.5% MoE, 2/21) 49/43 (O +6)

Meanwhile, Republicans are hanging their hat on a Roanoke College poll (607 adults, ±4.0% MoE, 2/13 -2/26) that shows a virtual tie 42/43 (R +1) with a large 16% undecided. Naturally, Republicans see the other five polls as "outliers"and this single poll as the "real" one. 

We now have a trend by the same pollster, Quinnipiac, showing Obama gaining four points in the margin over Romney since February. 

In addition, we have the latest results by the worthless Rasmussen also showing Obama with a nine-point lead over Romney in VA:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds the president leading former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by nine points - 51% to 42%. It was a six-point race a month ago – Obama 49%, Romney 43%. Four percent (4%) now prefer another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on March 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

 Rasmussen also shows Obama's lead increasing since February. On top of that, the worthless Rasmussen shows Obama leading in the "Core Four" states, which includes VA:

President Obama holds modest leads over both Republican front-runners in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Obama now picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 42% in those states. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 17-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

 Five points is a "modest lead" in the four most crucial States for Republicans to win, I guess. Previously, he found a four-point lead for Obama in the "Core Four", and in late February Obama was tied with Romney. So it's increasing, but "modest". 


VA is a crucial State in the election, with 13 EV. Added to Obama's base of 239 EV, it pushes him up to 252 EV. 

From there, Obama only needs 18 EV to win.

A win in OH, PA, or FL means that Obama wins the election, if VA goes to the Democrats. Obama only needs to win one, and he currently leads in two of these States. He also has a buffer of 13 EV in NC, which PPP shows him leading by 3 points, in case IA (7 EV) goes to Romney. 

Of course, FL is a toss-up. If the Republicans lose that coin flip, it's all over. Florida's 27 EV would put Obama well over 270 EV if he wins VA. Without VA, FL would bring him to 266 with just his solid base added to that. Obama would have to lose OH and PA, along with every other coin flip, to lose in that case. 

Meanwhile, Romney has a solid base of about 181 EV. He has to win CO, FL, NC, PA, and OH or he's out. That's pretty grim. 

PPP showed Romney behind by seven points in PA. Marist showed Romney losing by double digits in OH. If Romney loses in either of these States, it's over.

Quinnipiac: Obama leads by 16 in CT

Although Connecticut is a New England State, the Right read a great deal into Lieberman's election to the Senate and the 2010 elections. Some saw CT as a possible flip and a Senate pick-up. 

They, of course, were sadly mistaken. 

The new Quinnipiac poll of CT (1230 RV, ±2.4% MoE, 3/14 - 3/19) shows Obama with a strong lead and the likely Republican Senate candidate losing badly. Obama leads Romney 53/37 in a match-up, with Obama improving by 4 points since mid-September with the same pollster. On top of that, Obama has picked up five points of "favourable" opinion since mid-September, and dropped 4 points of unfavourable opinion in that same period. Romney shows negative "favourables" at 35/43, with his "unfavourable" opinion increasing by 15 points since the previous poll. 

There isn't the familiar gender gap in these numbers, either. Obama wins slim majorities of men and women in a match-up, his "favourables" are good with both genders, and Romney is viewed about as unfavourably by both genders. Obama is even picking up 19% of self-described conservatives when matched up with Romney, and he wins Independents by 11 points over Romney. 

I don't think a big Super-PAC-funded ad campaign is going to turn the tide in CT. 

McMahon, the likely Republican Senate candidate, tried a massive ad campaign in 2010 and lost. She's still seen unfavourably by voters there (40/44), including Republicans. From TPM:

McMahon suffers from a loss of support from her own base. GOP voters are a clear minority in Connecticut, but she only sees support from three quarters of them in the poll, splitting the independent vote and only around ten percent of Democrats. On the other hand, Shays shows some real strength in general election matchups: he actuals bests Bysiewicz 42 - 40, and falls to Murphy 43 - 37. Against Bysiewicz, Shays pulls 47 percent of independent voters versus 30 for the former Secretary of State and essentially splits them against Murphy.

CT has seven electoral votes (EV), and has been seen as part of Obama's solid 239 EV base by most. A win by Shays for the Senate seat wouldn't technically be a "pick-up" for the Democrats because Lieberman ostensibly caucused with the Democrats, but it would be a far more solid vote than Lieberman's. 

Overall, this poll is good news. It shows Obama increasing his popularity and his lead over the likely Republican front-runner, and it shows a Senate win for the Democrats.