Rasmussen revealed

This is Rasmussen's Polling chart for 2012.
As you can see, it showed Romney ahead from April onward.



Interesting that Rasmussen makes you pay to see these results.

This is PPP's chart for 2012.
As you can see it showed Obama ahead.



Right now, it's 11/3/12.
If Obama wins, Rasmussen can claim that he was within the MoE (margin of error), and thus "accurate".
If Romney wins, obviously Rasmussen can claim "accuracy".
Note: the links below will probably not function after the election, or will require payment.

Since Rasmussen will charge you to see this after the election, let's look at Rasmussen's latest Ohio results:

Friday, November 02, 2012

With four days to go, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio.   
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Obama and Romney each with 49% support.  Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided. 

 Let's also look at Rasmussen's latest Colorado survey:

Thursday, November 01, 2012

Mitt Romney still holds a narrow lead in Colorado. 
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters shows Romney still holding 50% support, while President Obama earns 47% of the vote. Two percent (2%) favor some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided.

 And Florida, which Scotty hasn't polled since 10/26. Latest results:

Friday, October 26, 2012

Mitt Romney still earns 50% of the vote in the key battleground state of Florida, but his lead is smaller.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama's 48%. One percent (1%) is undecided.

Now realise that Rasmussen's MoE on these State polls is +/- 4%.
Even if Obama wins these States, Rasmussen will still be able to claim "accuracy", even though he predicted a Romney win in two of these three. Scotty does not even have to pick the correct winner to be considered "accurate".

Let's look at Rasmussen's chart for Florida:


As you can see, Rasmussen showed Romney leading in every poll that he did of the State. That's pretty different than showing one poll where it could go for Obama and still be within the MoE.

And now, let's look at Rasmussen's chart for Colorado:


Romney is ahead and steadily gaining since July. Wow, it sure looks as if Romney couldn't lose, doesn't it?

Now for Ohio. Let's see Rasmussen's view of the race:


Obama was ahead all year, except up to the very end when Romney pulled ahead. Weird, right? But Scotty's still within the MoE, isn't he? No harm in giving Republicans a little hope, when you can still claim accuracy even if Romney loses.

Let's see how "accurate" Rasmussen really is after the election. It should be fun to hear him spin, but he will probably hide all of this information shown on his own site, or require payment.

Rasmussen: let's poll Montana again

 Check out Rasmussen's new poll of Montana, the second survey of a State that no one has ever thought would flip, and which has gone to the Republicans for the last 20 years on the Presidential race. It's also a State with a mere 3 electoral votes (EV). Even tiny Rhode Island has 4 EV.

I guess when Scotty is having a hard time coming up with good news for his right-wing narrative, he can always poll Montana.

Romney receives 49% support from Likely Voters in the Treasure State to Obama’s 40%. A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey finds that nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Montana was conducted on April 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Much to no one's surprise, Romney is leading by nine points in a state that has no bearing at all on the acquisition of 270 EV by Obama.

When Obama has a solid lead like this in a State, wingnuts point out that he's under 50%. Well, Romney is under 50% here. Does anyone really think that he might lose MT?

When it comes to swing States, Rasmussen likes to combine them together so that no one can point to his polling in one of those States. Of course, anyone evaluating his shoddy polling after the election can simply combine those states and prove how much of an outlier his polling has been so far.

Rasmussen: Obama still leads in "Core Four"

Not that Rasmussen's polling has any particular value at this point, but I've included this poll to illustrate the conservative narrative. 

Rasmussen's latest poll of the "Core Four" States (FL, NC, VA, OH) shows Obama leading 47/44 in a match-up with Romney. 

President Obama remains slightly ahead of the Republican front-runners in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. New Rasmussen Reports telephone surveying finds that Obama picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 44%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. That's little changed from a week ago when Obama led Romney 47% to 42%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 24-29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Other pollsters, not surprisingly, have shown quite different results for most of these States.

• NC: PPP  49/46 (O +3)
• VA: Marist 52/35 (O +17), PPP  48/42 (O +6), Quinnipiac 47/43 (O +4)
• OH: Marist 50/38 (O +12), PPP 49/42 (O +7), Quinnipiac 47/41 (O +6)
• FL: Quinnipiac 49/42 (O +7) 

The thing to note here is that Rasmussen is showing these four States to be within the margin of error (MoE). These are crucial States for the GOP to win. For example, if Obama wins FL (27 EV), he pretty much wins the election, and can afford to lose the other three States. Rasmussen can't cede them to Obama and still contend that Romney will win the election. Instead, he takes five entire days to poll 500 "likely voters", and comes up with results that basically say that his polling is so shoddy that it's possible Romney is tied with Obama. If you are a Republican "true believer", that's what you see when you read those numbers. If you have a strong enough imagination, you can look at those numbers and see Romney leading.

Statistically speaking, there is no real difference between results showing Obama up by four and another result showing Obama up by three. One can only wonder why Rasmussen polled these four States two weeks in a row, if it takes him five days to do each survey. Since these States are so crucial, one can also wonder why Rasmussen doesn't just poll them individually. It all comes down to giving Scotty enough room to weasel out of his own results. As we get closer to the election, Rasmussen will declare some relatively minor event to be his "things changed" moment, and his results will come into line with other pollsters. Then, post-election, he will point to these polling results within 40 days of the election to prove his 'accuracy', and ignore the previous year's results that were glaring outliers.

Gallup: Obama job approval 48/44

Gallup has been much more pessimistic when it comes to Obama's job approval than other pollsters. Because of that, right-leaning pundits and analysts tend to rely on Gallup's figures a lot to make their cases. This might get harder, as Obama's job approvals with Gallup have been improving. Twice last week, Obama hit 49% approval - 49/44 two days straight. And the last results showed him narrowly "above water" at 47/46.

GALLUP DAILY

Mar 21-23, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval

48%

Obama Disapproval

44%

 Also, let's take a look at Pollster.com's Romney vs. Obama charts, excluding Rasmussen:

Now, let's take a look at the same chart, only including Rasmussen:

See the difference that Rasmussen makes? By swamping the pool with his daily tracker, Scotty exercises undue influence over the narrative.
Rasmussen cuts Obama's support by one point, and increases Romney's support by 1.2 points.

The "Rasmussen Effect" on polling averages

Pollster.com aggregates a multitude of polls and averages them out to show a composite view of the election.

Their composite average of the match-up between Obama and Romney currently puts Obama up by 2.9%.

This is the graph if we include all pollster's results (including Rasmussen):

This is the graph if we exclude Rasmussen: 

This is the graph if we exclude all of PPP's polling (and the DKos results):

It's clear that Rasmussen's polling reduces Obama's numbers by nearly a point (0.9%), and artificially inflates Romney's numbers by the same amount.

PPP's polling, however, inflates Obama by a mere 0.1% and actually inflates Romney by 0.2%!

Yet, Republicans (and the pundits who routinely shill for them) dismiss PPP as some kind of radical, left-leaning pollster who deliberately suppresses Republican support in their results. This simple comparison shows that PPP favours the Republican front-runner, however slightly.

Let's do this same comparison for polls since March.

First, all pollsters:

Now, let's take Rasmussen out of the mix for the same period:

Next, let's put Rasmussen back in and take out all PPP (and the DKos) results from the mix:

Again, removing Rasmussen adds nearly a full point (0.9%) to Obama's support, while reducing Romney's support by nearly a full point (0.9%). This is a net bias of nearly two points in the Republicans' favour produced by Rasmussen's skewed polling. 

And again, removing PPP hardly changes anything, because PPP isn't an outlier. Including PPP in polling averages gives Romney a false 0.2% edge, while giving Obama a mere 0.1% false edge. PPP actually gives a net 0.1% bias in the Republicans' favour. 

Consider also that Rasmussen automatically gives Republicans a 3.2% boost in his figures due to his "likely voter" screen. Do we see a 3.2% difference between "likely voters" and registered voters in these results? No, we don't. 

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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:

Ras Trax 3/10: Romney leads big for some reason

Apparently, the nation's "likely voters" have been waiting to decide if Romney is really the GOP's nominee before choosing him a match-up. This bit of delusion is supposed to explain why Rasmussen's crazy daily tracker suddenly , over a mere six days, switched from Obama six points ahead to Obama five points behind. Hand in hand with Rasmussen's latest results showing that 80% of Republican primary voters think Romney will be the nominee, 'naturally' Romney takes the lead. But if that's the case, how does Scotty explain Santorum also leading the President? He doesn't.

With the perception growing that he will be the GOP nominee, Romney leads President Obama by five points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Today's numbers show Romney at 48%, Obama at 43%. That’s Romney’s largest lead since December.  

If Santorum is the Republican nominee, he is up by one point over the president, 46% to 45%. This is the second time since polling began in 2011 that Santorum has had a slight lead over Obama. Romney is the only other candidate to lead the president more than one time in the polls.

 Isn't this the virtual proof that Rasmussen's "likely voters" are mostly Republicans? Why else should anyone outside of the GOP care if Romney is the nominee? Even if they did, for some reason, why would that have prevented them from siding with one of the Republican candidates before? 

Also mysteriously, "Strong Disapproval" of Obama has gone up to 44%. Were "likely voters" waiting to decide who the Republican nominee would be before they decided to dislike Obama even more? 

I expect that this poll will become one of the key points that analysts will point to after the 2012 elections. Unfortunately for Rasmussen, it will be one of the examples used to illustrate exactly where Rasmussen went off the deep end and became the joke of the polling world. 

I leave it to the reader to guess how, exactly, Romney can lead the President by five points, yet be four behind in the "core States". 

Rasmussen has now firmly thrown in with the Republican delusional narrative. Nobody else is showing leads like this for any Republican candidate. Nobody else has shown a lead at all since mid-February, and only by two points, at that. He is past the point where he can redeem himself with last-minute "things changed" moments. No one will believe that now. The Right would never forgive him for doing that, and nobody else takes him seriously after this result. He will have to go down with the narrative in November. 

Perhaps Rasmussen thinks that he can intimidate other pollsters into showing more Republican-friendly numbers by doing this. If so, he vastly over-estimates his stature in the polling world after his 2010 debacle. Nobody is afraid to dispute Scotty's results anymore, and his reputation has declined even among Right-leaning pollsters. He would also be under-estimating the influence of pollsters such as PPP, whose results run counter to Rasmussen's. And, when PPP begins polling likely voters, Rasmussen will be deprived of his familiar crutch that he frequently employs against other pollsters.

Rasmussen: "core states" leaning to Obama

Because it's Rasmussen, the link to this poll might not work in the future. Scotty likes to make it difficult for people to check up on his previous predictions. Still, Rasmussen released a new poll (500 LV, ±4.5% MoE, 3/3 - 3/8) where he finds the "core States" (FL, NC, OH, and VA) leaning toward Obama 46/42. Hardly a surprise, that's exactly within the margin of error (MoE) for the survey. Also unsurprising is that this poll has major flaws:

First, a sample of 500 spread across four states is virtually meaningless. 500 would be a barely respectable sample size for each of the four States. I'm a little bewildered how Rasmussen arrives at a mere 4.5% MoE with that sample size. 

Second, it's a bit suspicious that Rasmussen was in the field for five whole days getting these 500 voters. 

Third, Rasmussen left PA off of his list of "core States", though he previously found PA to be a virtual tie.

Rasmussen avoids directly contradicting other polls of OH and VA that show Obama doing well by lumping his results into one poll. With other pollsters also showing FL and NC as a tie, Rasmussen also avoids shedding any light whatsoever on those States. This poll is not only meaningless and suspect; it's also worthless. 

These "core States" are absolutely crucial for the GOP to win. It's highly likely that losing any single one of them could produce a win for Obama in the general election. Any poll showing Obama leading in all of them would be death for the Republican chances. Is it any wonder Rasmussen combined his results into one meaningless composite, since that is the case? 

Here is the result that Rasmussen allows those unwilling to pay him to view:

President Obama now holds modest leads over Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied with both candidates in the four states. 

Obama is now ahead of the former Massachusetts governor 46% to 42%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 3-8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Once again, we find the defenders of the Republican narrative to be settling for a tie. Since the poll results are within the MoE, it could be that Romney breaks even. Guess what partisan Republicans are going to believe? I'm not really sure how a tie supports their delusions that Obama is a hated figure who could be beaten by "anyone", but it seems to represent the limit of Rasmussen's willingness to manipulate his figures. Of course, the Right "knows" that the 6% of "undecided" voters is going to break for Romney, so the MoE is just icing on the cake of self-delusion. 

The important thing to note here is not the actual poll results. It is, instead, the delicate dance that Rasmussen is forced into doing to counter the growing evidence that Obama can reach 270 EV in 2012. Scotty concedes that Obama has improved by four points in a few weeks, while he also concedes that his poll results are so shoddy that they could indicate a tie. The mere fact that Rasmussen has to do this dance is further evidence that the Republicans are in trouble with their electoral votes. 

We are seeing the narrative of the Right shift from "anybody could beat Obama" to "Obama can't close the deal". That's huge. I'll take that. 

With the most Right-leaning national pollster in America slowly being backed into the "outlier" category, Rasmussen could find that Fox News is the only network willing to take his numbers seriously.

Rasmussen remains irrelevant

Rasmussen, in his search for irrelevance, now shows Romney with a two-point lead over Obama in the general election match-up. Scotty wants you to pay him money to see his tracking history, but a recent summary can be seen here for free.

Rasmussen now (3/6 - 3/8) shows a Romney lead (45/47). Just a few days ago (3/3 - 3/5) this same pollster showed Obama with a six-point lead (48/42). Apparently, in Rasmussen's world, 8% of the nation's "likely voters" flipped in two days over to Romney. That just doesn't happen in the real world.

Let's look at HuffPo's chart:

Okay, so Obama has an average four-point lead outside of Rasmussen's skewed surveys. Aside from the Quinnipiac poll (2/14 - 2/20) showing Obama ahead by only two, no other pollster is showing the race as close as Rasmussen seems to.

In all likelihood, Rasmussen will continue to show this same pattern up to October. On some days, Obama will have leads. On other days, Romney will have the lead. Even in August, we can expect Rasmussen to keep showing Romney within the margin of error (MoE) at critical points. We can expect these critical points to include dates around Romney campaign speeches, when Rasmussen will attempt to prop up the Republican narrative with false hopes. 

In October, there will be some relatively meaningless event in the "big picture". Rasmussen will seize on this, and make it his "things changed" moment. His polling will suddenly show Obama with significant leads nationally, and in important swing states. And nobody will remember that this shill pollster spent more than a year prior to that giving Romney fake leads in his manipulated surveys. 

That's part of what this record is all about. That's partly why Rasmussen forces you to pay money to see his results. If you are willing to spend money for his polls, then you have a financial incentive to trust them. Nobody likes to admit that they got conned by a shill, after all.

You may say that the polls don't matter at this point in the cycle. I say that they do. The Republican narrative is that Obama is highly unpopular and very vulnerable. One would think, then, that polling should back that up. It really doesn't, though. And, if the polls don't matter at this point, then why is Rasmussen doing a daily tracker? In fact, the Right seems to be indirectly admitting that Obama isn't nearly as vulnerable as they believed he was - but they believe that they can convince the voters he is terrible in the future by way of a huge advertising campaign. 

Thus far, all that Rasmussen's bogus polling has shown is that 40% of the voters really, really dislike Obama. Even if you believe that to be true, how does Romney drawing only 7% above that number show Obama to be highly vulnerable? For a narrative built on 2010, Rasmussen's own bogus numbers do not bear out an idea that those outside of the Republican base are significantly breaking for the Republican alternatives.

Ras Trax 3/6

Another day, another Rasmussen tracker that makes no sense in Rasmussen's world. Once again, Obama has higher disapproval than approval, which meant before that Obama should be losing in a match-up with Republican candidates. Strangely, this unpopular President is ahead of both Republicans. How can this be?

In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, the president leads Romney 48% to 42%. If Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads 48% to 41%.

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) at least somewhat disapprove.

 So, Scotty says Romney is losing by six points. Once again, Romney is not picking up that 51% who are unhappy with Obama's job performance. This is so weird, because we are told that Obama is so unpopular that anybody could beat him. Once again, the Republican candidates are only picking the same percentage that "strongly disapproves" of Obama's job performance. Once again, that percentage of "strong disapproval" is only a few points above Rasmussen's percentage of self-identified Republicans.

And, once again, this 'unpopular' President is drawing 15% above Rasmussen's percentage of self-identified Democrats. And, once again, we must point out that these are "likely voters", and Rasmussen can't credibly claim that they won't turn out in November. Roughly half of Rasmussen's Independent voters are breaking for Obama, and the other half apparently aren't sure yet.

Ras Trax 3/4, and the ultra-likely voter

Today's meaningless Rasmussen tracker finds the President underwater in job approval (46/53). As we learned from Scott Rasmussen on 2/27, obviously this means that President is losing to the Republican candidates in a match-up. Being underwater in job approval also means that Ron Paul leads Obama in a national match-up. It just makes sense, because Obama is so unpopular that Democrats won't vote for him and everyone wants anybody but Obama to be the next president. I mean, it's obvious, isn't it? It's all there in Rasmussen's numbers and his commentary.

And yet, Rasmussen today finds the President leading the Republican candidates. How can this be? He is underwater in job approval! No one would ever vote for Obama, because he's so unpopular. Scotty said so!

Does it seem that Rasmussen is just making it up as he goes along? 

Remember, Rasmussen wants you to pay him to look at the history of this wondrous daily match-up tracker.

Anyway, as part of the chronicle of Rasmussen's decline from relevance as a pollster, let's peer into the warped product of a partisan manipulator of numbers and see the latest match-up:

In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, the president leads Mitt Romney 47% to 43%. If Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads by the same margin, 47% to 43%.

And the job approval numbers:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15 (see trends).

Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) at least somewhat disapprove.

 So 42% (of "likely voters, mind you) "strongly disapprove" of Obama's job performance.

And 43% (of "likely voters") would vote for either Republican candidate - but not Ron Paul, apparently. 

Those numbers are virtually identical. Statistically speaking, they are identical. 

It seems obvious that the Republican candidates are only attracting the strongest detractors of Obama. 

Subtract the number that disapprove from the number voting for the Republican candidate, and you get 7% of the nation's "likely voters" who would not currently vote for the Republican candidate even though they are unhappy with the President.

We are told that 46% at least "somewhat approve" of Obama's job performance. 

We are also told that 47% of the nation's "likely voters" would currently vote for Obama in a match-up. 

Again, those numbers are statistically identical. 

It seems obvious that Obama is attracting everyone who is at least "somewhat' happy with him.

Now, you can say that the gap between "strongly approves" and "somewhat approves" means that 20% of Obama's supporters won't show up to vote. Of course, you would be neglecting that these are likely voters. 

Rasmussen seems to be implying the creation of some kind of new voter: the ultra-likely voter. 

Unfortunately for Rasmussen, the vote of an enraged, highly motivated person counts exactly the same as the vote as a marginally enthusiastic person. You can't vote with an exclamation point. And, either someone is likely to vote or they aren't. Scotty's basically making up the definitions for these terms in the first place. And, considering he sets the rules, his narrative doesn't hold up under casual scrutiny. 

In the partisan Republican world, the President is a reviled figure that only 27% of the electorate likes. We are told continuously that Obama is a complete failure, a dangerous schemer, an out-of-touch elitist, and a "socialist". Everyone "knows" this. And the economy is horrible, which means that it's all Obama's fault.

What can they possibly make, then, of polls that regularly show Obama winning match-ups with their conservative champions? 

Easy, in the Republicans' minds. A lot of those people who say that they are voting for Obama won't vote, or can't vote. As for the rest, their minds will change once they get exposed to campaign advertising that tells people that the President is bad.

Okay, that's crazy. 

All of these criticisms of Obama have been screamed before. Hell, they've never really stopped. 

And the Republican 'ideas' have all been heard before. The House has been too busy de-funding NPR and trying to humiliate Obama to put those ideas into effect. Tax cuts. Yeah. Heard that one. Those Bush tax cuts have got the economy rolling, haven't they? 

This is a large part of what happened for the Republicans in 2008. They mistakenly believed that "base appeals" are effective on the general electorate. They really aren't. 

If the talking points of these anticipated game-changing advertisements are similar to those currently being pushed by Fox News, the right-wing blogosphere, or talk radio, then they won't work. The people who are receptive to that type of appeal have already sided with the Republicans. Hearing Obama being blamed for a bad economy the 2354th time isn't suddenly going to do what the 2353rd instance failed to accomplish. 

Republicans, consider this: 

You have spent over four years already (including the campaign) telling the nation how scary, evil, clueless, and weird Obama is. You've used every angle, from the crazy conspiracies to the legislative logjam to attack the guy. This has got you 40% of the electorate, and you've pretty much had that same 40% since the middle of 2009. If this line worked on more than that 40%, it would have worked by now. 

Even with all of that, there's still 7% of the electorate that's unhappy with Obama, but unwilling to vote for your guy.

We've been locked in to majority disapproval of Obama for over two years now, and the President is still winning in match-ups against your two most likely candidates. And this is all data from your favourite conservative pollster, not the "liberal media". 

You guys are supposed to be business minds, and all that. You must be familiar with the concept of "diminishing returns". Think about how likely tripling the amount of harsh criticism is going to pay off for you. It'll get the people already on your side frothing mad, but that's not really such a good idea when you want to appeal to the general electorate, is it? People are pretty tired of the screeching, spittle-flecked rage coming from you guys already. How do you come back from all that when you lose? More importantly, how does that allow your nominee room to take more moderate positions after the primaries? 

You are going to try and moderate after the primaries, aren't you? 

You guys are so screwed.

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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:
 

Rasmussen MA Senate poll 2/29: Brown leads by 5

I just wanted to get this poll on the record before Scotty invents a "things changed" moment for this race.

Rasmussen polled Massachusetts (500 LV ±4.5% MoE, 2/29)

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Brown picking up 49% of the vote to Warren’s 44%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

A single day in the field, only 500 in the sample, and the MoE is roughly equal to the lead -- in other words, a poll with only marginal value. Considering how "noisy" Rasmussen's polling has been lately, and how far his results have been from other pollsters' work, this is only useful to humiliate old Scotty after the election.

Ras Trax 2/27: Paul leads, nation laughs

Rasmussen's daily tracker has gone wacky. In contrast to several other recent polls, Rasmussen has somehow been finding a whole lot of Republicans out there. Or, possibly, Rasmussen is trying to say that many Republicans have switched from voting for Obama to voting for one of the Republican candidates. Or, more likely, Rasmussen is just making it up as he goes along.

Make a note of this tracker result, because it shows just what a joke Rasmussen is. Four days ago, Obama was leading Santorum by 7 and Romney by 10. Now, for some mysterious reason, Romney leads by 2 and Ron Paul also leads by 2 in match-ups with Obama.

For the first time since late December 2011, Mitt Romney leads the president in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Romney earns 45% of the vote, while the president attracts support from 43%. Romney holds a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

For the first time ever, Texas Congressman Ron Paul also leads the president. In that matchup, 43% prefer Paul and 41% Obama. Ten percent (10%) would vote for some other option, a figure that includes 17% of Republicans.

If former Senator Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads by two, 45% to 43%. With former House Speaker Newt Gingrich as his opponent, the president enjoys a 10-point lead, 49% to 39%.

Let's see how long this phenomenon lasts. Scotty is going to end up looking pretty silly trying to walk his way back from this. National polls simply don't swing 12 points over the course of four days - at least not the kind of polls that anyone takes seriously.

Ras Trax 2/24: it COULD be a tie!

Rasmussen gives Obama a three-point lead in a poll that has 3% MoE (margin of error). This fits in with the current framing of the race from conservatives: "It looks like we're losing, but it could be a tie!".

In a potential Election 2012 matchups, the president leads Mitt Romney 46% to 43%. If Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads 47% to 42%.

In any case, it appears that Rasmussen is abandoning the idea that Santorum could beat Obama. After posting his ridiculous tracker that claimed Santorum was one point ahead of Obama, apparently "things changed". This odd little shift only 'coincidentally' occurred at a time when conservatives were casting about for an alternative to Romney. 

As I've said before, Rasmussen's daily tracker seems to be 'tracking' the shifting Republican narrative rather than any kind of general electorate opinion.

Rasmussen: PA is a virtual tie

In contrast with another poll, Rasmussen finds the State of Pennsylvania to be a virtual tie (O +1) in a match-up between Obama and Romney:

Mitt Romney runs neck-and-neck with President Obama in the key electoral state of Pennsylvania, but Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from the Keystone State, trails the incumbent by six points. Most voters in the state disapprove of the job the president is doing. 

New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican presidential nominee, Obama leads 45% to 44%.

This Pennsylvania survey of 438 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

The very recent Franklin and Marshall poll of PA (592 RV, ±4.0%, 2/14 - 2/20) showed Obama ahead by eight points against both Romney and Santorum. 

Romney (41/33) 

Santorum (45/37)

The absence of Rasmussen's weasel-wording regarding "undecideds" and those who "prefer some other candidate" is revealing in this current poll. If Obama is ahead in a swing state, Rasmussen feels compelled to point out that it could be a tie - providing that everything goes in the Republicans' favour. 

For a conservative narrative that seems to rely heavily on the idea that "anybody" could beat Obama, conservatives seem oddly eager right now to simply settle for a tie.

PPP's average of four polls shows basically what Rasmussen found, with the latest poll (11/22/11) showing a 45/45 tie with Romney. 

If PPP is - as conservatives love to assert - some kind of unreliable, far-Left, propaganda machine, isn't it interesting that their numbers correlate to Rasmussen's? And isn't it also interesting that PPP can obtain such similar numbers without the use of a highly-secret "likely voter" screen?

The Republicans must win PA just to stay alive. If Obama wins it, he will almost certainly gain enough electoral votes to win re-election. In fact, he would gain enough EV to compensate for losing Iowa. Yet, this crucial State is a virtual toss-up - or could possibly already be in Obama's favour, depending on the pollster.

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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections: 

  
 

Rasmussen polls MT for some reason

Of all the States to poll, Rasmussen has now chosen Montana. Obama is down by 7% to Romney,  and behind by four to Santorum.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide survey of Likely Voters in Montana shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading the president 48% to 41%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum picks up 45% of the vote to Obama’s 41%. Nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Montana was conducted on February 22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

 Montana has only 3 electoral votes (EV). While Obama only lost the State by 3% in 2008, PPP polled MT in 2011 and found that it's not competitive any more. It's hardly a "must win" State for either Party. 

It's interesting that the usual conservative whinge isn't applied here. If one added the "undecideds" and the MoE, Obama could potentially tie or win. This would be desperate spin, of course, but that's essentially what conservatives are saying about the polling in PA and VA.

Ras Trax 2/23, Obama leads in VA and PA

Rasmussen gives Obama another eight-point lead over Santorum, and ten points over Romney nationally.

In a potential Election 2012 matchups, the president leads Rick Santorum 48% to 41%. If Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, the president leads 49% to 39%.

And Rasmussen tries to spin down the lead for Obama in Virginia:

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Obama drawing 49% support to Romney's 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
 
With Santorum as the Republican nominee, Obama holds a 51% to 43% lead. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

 That would be a 6% lead over Romney, and Rasmussen is already pointing out the number of "undecideds" as an indication that the race is still kind of even. VA is one of the States that has enough EVs to put Obama over 270 (which means he wins) according to the current polling. It's a "must win" State for Republicans, and this idea that Obama's unpopularity will swing undecided voters is odd for a President who is already taking a slim majority of "likely voters".

Also, Franklin and Marshall polled PA (592 RV, ±4.0%, 2/14 - 2/20), and tried to spin down Obama's lead there:

President Obama continues to lead all of his potential Republican challengers
in Pennsylvania. Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are the President’s strongest challengers at the moment, but both trail President Obama by about eight points.

The president’s lead over Rick Santorum is smaller than it was in January. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul both trail the president by double digits. President Obama’s job performance and hard re-elect ratings show slight improvements in the state since January.

 Obama has gained 5 points of support since 8/11, and the number of those who "Don't Know" has dropped by 9% since then. Romney has gained 3% in that period. And this is when Obama hasn't even started campaigning yet. It comes down to 41 / 33 / 18 against Romney.

Santorum would seem to be familiar to voters in PA, yet 20% responded "Don't Know" back in 8/11 in a match-up with Obama and Santorum. Obama lead by 6 points back then. 

In these current numbers, there's a big drop in those "undecideds" down to 12%. Both have gained 6%. As Santorum has risen on the national scene, one has to wonder if maybe this is his ceiling in the State. And now Obama has a nice margin of eight points in a key State: 45 / 37 / 12 against Santorum.

PA is another one of those "must win" States for Republicans. If Obama wins Pennsylvania, he basically is ensured re-election. Republicans are left to rely on "undecideds" and the margin of error in a crucial race.

Ras Trax 2/18, Rasmussen polls the obvious

Today's Rasmussen daily tracker continues Scotty's furtive slide away from his 1/28/11 poll showing Obama losing to a generic Republican by six points. In fact, Obama now leads by eight points in Rasmussen's whimsical polling.

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 49% to 41% lead over Romney.  If Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads 48% to 40%.

That's a lead that is outside of the MoE. How does Rasmussen's "likely voter" survey show the President's approval? Let's see: 

Overall, 50% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove. 

Of that 49% who disapprove, 40% is "strong disapproval". If this is a "likely voter" sample, why does "strong approval" matter? Obama clearly attracts 21% of likely voters over his 28% "strong approval" rating. Are Rasmussen's "likely voters" likely to vote or aren't they? 

Meanwhile, we continue to see the two Republican front-runners stuck with nothing more than Rasmussen's partisan angry base of 40% "strong disapproval" for Obama. Apparently, 9% of the "likely voters" in the country dislike Obama, but not enough to actually vote for one of the Republican candidates. That really says something about Rasmussen's narrative, doesn't it?

Once again, we see the Republican candidates stuck with numbers that are only 5 or 6% higher than Rasmussen's Party self-identification for Republicans. Meanwhile, Obama draws 15% more likely voters than the percentage that identify as Democrats in Rasmussen-land. 

But Rasmussen tells us that 46% of likely voters consider the Democratic Party agenda to be "extreme". It's very odd that the Republican candidates can't seem to pick up at least that 46%, isn't it? How could such an "extreme" candidate as Obama get 50% job approval if 46% consider him to be "extreme"? Something isn't adding up in Scotty's narrative machine.

In State polling, Rasmussen bravely sticks his neck out and tells the world that California just might go for Obama after all:

President Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum by more than 20 points in California, as nearly six-out-of-10 voters approve of the way he's handling his job.

 That's a big surprise, isn't it? I'm starting to think that Utah might go Republican, too. Of course, I'll hold off judgement until Rasmussen polls that State. Of all the States to poll, why CA?

Ras Trax 2/17, doubles down on Catholic poll

Another day, another Rasmussen tracker showing Obama ahead - but within the margin of error (MoE). Plenty of room for Ras to wiggle around, just the way he likes it.

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 48% to 42% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  If former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads 47% to 41%.

A six-point lead for Obama over either Republican front-runner looks good, but the MoE is 3 points on either side: take 3 points off Obama and add three points to Romney / Santorum, and you get an even break. Of course, this would mean that Rasmussen's sampling, "likely voter" screen, and 'random' panel are heavily skewed toward Republicans. Nobody that still believes in Rasmussen would care about that, though. And, by keeping the level of "undecideds" well above the MoE and the lead, Rasmussen allows plenty of room for his "things changed" moments.

But if we compare apples-to-apples, this tracker shows how flimsy the Republican narrative really is. Let's look at Rasmussen's own party ID (PID) breakdown:

Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 34.7% Republicans, 33.6% Democrats, and 31.8% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly larger advantage for the Republicans.

Okay, Ras doesn't say how large the "slightly larger advantage" is for Republicans is in his LV screen. Let's assume 2%, which is probably generous.

Romney's 42% subtracted from Rasmussen's figures for self-identified Republicans (adjusted for his LV screen) is 5.3%. That means that Romney is currently drawing a bit over 5% outside of his Party.

Obama's 48% subtracted from Rasmussen's 33.6% figure for self-identified Democrats is 14.4%. Remember, these are Rasmussen's "likely voters", so (if you take Rasmussen seriously) you can't say that those Obama supporters won't turn out. That means that Obama is more likely (right now) to win over Independents.

Obama also is drawing 48% job performance approval, strongly suggesting that his support in the match-up is firm. Again, these are "likely voters", so you can't claim that those who only "somewhat approve" of Obama won't turn out.

Romney's 42% contrasts with Rasmussen's 52% disapproval of Obama. This means that 10% of those who disapprove of Obama aren't currently willing to commit to the Republicans. In fact, Romney's 42% split is not much larger than the 40% that Rasmussen shows as "Strong Disapproval" of Obama.

For a Party that seems to be relying on a national mood of "Anybody But Obama", this doesn't look very good. Likely voters that disapprove of Obama aren't moving toward "anybody" but him. If Obama's "Strong Approval" is at 26%, what does it say when he draws 48% in a match-up? Obama draws 22% outside of his strong supporters, and Romney draws only 2% outside of Obama's strongest detractors.

Again, these are "likely voters". Doesn't his show how meaningless the entire "Strong" approval/disapproval really is? You can't say that only 26% of voters will actually turn out for Obama, and simultaneously say that 48% of likely voters will break for him. Either the value of "Strong Approval" is highly over-rated, or Rasmussen's "likely voter" screen needs to filter out 20%+ more people.

These extrapolations all involve Rasmussen's own numbers. They seem to indict the premise that Rasmussen's "likely voter" screen is built on: that Democrats won't vote. And it shows that Obama's solid base is 8 points higher than the Republicans' solid base. This does not support a narrative of an unpopular President that only draws his most ardent supporters to the polls.

In further Rasmussen stupidity, Scotty has doubled down on his previous survey results indicating that that the "religious freedom" (contraception) issue will cost Obama Catholic support.

In his 2/14 poll, Rasmussen says this:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of likely Catholic voters nationwide at least somewhat disapprove of the president’s job performance, while 40% at least somewhat approve. But the passion’s on the side of those who don’t like the job he’s doing: 44% Strongly Disapprove versus 19% who Strongly Approve.

Okay, so we see the "strong" approve / disapprove issue being pulled out again. But we are already dealing with "likely voters" here. Who cares about "the passion"? You can't vote with an exclamation point.

But how does this poll show that the White House position on the birth control controversy has cost Obama votes with Catholics? Rasmussen himself concludes:

While the president’s overall job approval ratings have improved over the past couple of months, they have remained steady among Catholics.

"Remained steady"? So did Catholic support drop off? No. 

But further:

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Catholics voted for Obama in November 2008. However, Republican hopeful Mitt Romney currently leads the president among Catholic voters by a 52% to 35% margin.

So can an issue that only appeared two weeks ago (at best) be ascribed to a drop over nearly four years? And Romney leaves 7% of those "disapproving" Catholics on the table in a match-up with Obama (59-52). Hell, Obama's even drawing 16% above his "strong approval" in a match-up (35-19). Even if you take this poll seriously, it doesn't show any drop in support due to the recent controversy.

And should we even take this poll seriously? Other pollsters dramatically differ with Rasmussen on the issue:

• Gallup: "An average of 46% of Catholics approved of the job Obama was doing as president last week, compared with 49% the prior week, a change within the margin of sampling error."
• CBS/NYT:  "The number is similar among self-professed Catholics surveyed: 61 percent said they support the Obama administration's rule, while 32 percent oppose it"
• PPP:  "We did an over sample of almost 400 Catholics and found that they support the benefit overall, 53-44, and oppose an exception for Catholic hospitals and universities, 53-45. The Bishops really are not speaking for Catholics as a whole on this issue."

Want more dumb from Rasmussen? Look at this:

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Evangelical Christians and 52% of other Protestants also at least somewhat disapprove of the job Obama is doing in the White House.

 Wow, the Republican base doesn't like Obama! Shocking news. This is the usual desperate spin from the Right that we saw in 2008: Republicans won't vote for Obama, so he can't win. And, at the time of this survey, Rasmussen showed 50% (likely voters, mind you) at least "somewhat approving" of Obama. That kind of puts the "faith gap" numbers into perspective.

This faith gap was evident in December, well before the current dispute between the Obama Administration and religious leaders. Yet while the president’s overall job approval ratings have gone up slightly in recent weeks as perceptions of the economy have begun to improve, there’s been little or no change in attitude among religious groups. 

So the people who disliked him before still don't like him, and that somehow is supposed to mean that this new position is going to cost Obama votes? At best, it shows that the Republican base is more resistant to the improvement in Obama's "favourables" than the general electorate. Big deal.

Ras Trax 2/14, PPP national

Today's journey into the world of Rasmussen brings us the hint of old Scotty's "things changed" narrative. He seems to be insinuating that Romney's negative campaigning in FL is the "event" that "changed" the race. In Rasmussen's (fixed and bogus) polling, Romney was tied before FL. Now he is seven points down on Obama. Santorum, in yet another dizzying shift, is down nine in a match-up with Obama. Weird how Santorum was a point ahead of the President (in Rasmussen's fixed figures) when it was convenient to boost Santorum's "electability" narrative. It's also strange how Romney showed a six-point lead in December (in Rasmussen's fixed figures), but now is behind by seven in the same match-up against the President.

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 49% to 42% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  The numbers are very similar if former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee. In that case, the president leads 49% to 41%. Among unaffiliated voters, the president leads Romney by 10 and Santorum by 16.

One week before the Florida primary, Romney and Obama were tied. In the week leading up to that event, Romney fell behind by margins ranging from two to six points. The GOP hopeful has fallen further behind since that time. Over the past week, he has trailed the president by margins ranging from four to ten points (see tracking history for all candidates).

Overall, 51% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) at least somewhat disapprove. 

Also, Obama is back above 50% in approval, which is also strange. Rasmussen just told us that 50% of likely voters were pissed off at Obama over the Catholic / birth control issue.

Gallup just released a poll that says even Catholics themselves aren't that upset about the issue: 

              

PRINCETON, NJ -- Catholics' views of President Obama were little changed during a week in which the administration battled publicly with Catholic leaders over whether church-affiliated employers should have to pay for contraception as part of their employees' health plans. An average of 46% of Catholics approved of the job Obama was doing as president last week, compared with 49% the prior week, a change within the margin of sampling error.

And the latest CBS/NYT poll fails to back up old Scotty Rasmussen:

                          

The number is similar among self-professed Catholics surveyed: 61 percent said they support the Obama administration's rule, while 32 percent oppose it.

Sounds like a losing issue for Republicans. PPP also polled the issue, and didn't find Rasmussen's 50% opposed. Oh, yeah: "likely voters". Sure. 

Also in polling, PPP released their new national survey. (1200 RV, 2/9-2/12, MoE +/- 2.8%)

Romney trails 49-42, down two points from 49-44 last month. Santorum has improved three points on the margin from a 50-42 deficit to only 49-44 now. President Obama has inched up three points versus Ron Paul (from 47-42 to 49-41), and five over Newt Gingrich (from 49-42 to 52-40). Obama leads Paul by one, Santorum by four, Romney by nine, and Gingrich by 19 points with independents. Santorum is the strongest of the Republicans with the GOP, but still loses 12% of them to Obama, while Obama cedes only 8-11% of his party versus any opponent.

Q13 Do you think the economy is improving, getting
worse, or staying about the same?
Improving........................................................ 41%
Getting worse.................................................. 31%
Staying about the same .................................. 27%
Not sure .......................................................... 1%

•  In a match-up with Obama, Santorum loses females 53/40 and breaks even with men 46/48. Romney is pretty much the same, but Obama edges out men 46/43 in that case.
• Gender seems to make no difference on the question about the economy improving.
• Ron Paul wins the white vote 48/40/12 in a match-up with Obama. Romney wins them 50/41/9. Santorum does best with whites: 52/41/ 7. That's getting into interesting territory with Santorum. If he pulls half of the undecided whites, he moves up to nearly 55%. This is what McCain got, but it's still higher than I would like to see.
• Paul loses the 18-29 demographic to Obama 56/35/10. Even if he wins all of the undecideds, he loses that age group. So much for the Paul "youth vote" narrative. Romney does even worse with the demographic: 59/29/13. And Santorum is dismal at 63/29/8.
• In a match-up with Obama, Santorum wins the 65+ age demographic by eight: 42/50/8. Romney does a bit worse at 43/46/11.

We can only wonder if Santorum's numbers will go down as voters become more familiar with him. 

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Ras Trax 2/13, Pew sees Romney drop

Eight point leads nationally for Obama over both Santorum and Romney in today's Rasmussen daily tracking poll. This poll period is outside of the caucus wins that Santorum had 2/7. It's somewhat humorous that Rasmussen points out the flakiness of his polling by referring to his previous ridiculous leads over Obama by other "flare candidates". Are we really supposed to believe that Santorum dropped nine points over four days in national match-ups? That Santorum lead was another of Rasmussen's phony build-ups of Romney alternatives to make them seem far more electable in a general election than they really are.

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 48% to 42% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum trails the president by eight, 49% to 41%. 

This is the first time since February 3, shortly after the Florida primary, that Romney has been closer to the president than Santorum (see tracking history). In polling conducted February 2-3, Santorum had a one-point advantage over the president. However, he quickly fell back and has now joined Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich who led the president once in a single poll but could not sustain it.

So now Romney and Santorum are both behind by 8, with a statistically-meaningless single point difference in the numbers. And Rasmussen continues to be the joke of the polling world.

Pew released a new poll today, showing bad news for the Republicans in the Presidential race. While the main focus is on Santorum's rise against Romney, Pew also shows an eight-point lead for Obama:

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Feb. 8-12 among 1,501 adults, including 1172 registered voters and 552 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, finds that Barack Obama holds sizable leads over Santorum, Romney and Newt Gingrich in general election match-ups. Obama leads Santorum by 10 points among all registered voters (53% to 43%) and his lead over Romney is nearly as large (52% to 44%). Romney ran about even with Obama in November and mid-January.

                                       

Quite a trend there for Obama against Romney. And the new-found enthusiasm from the Republican base over Rick Santorum isn't helping him in the general election match-ups. Maybe that's because what sells big in the Republican bubble really isn't that appealing outside of the bubble. If Rasmussen is correct in his numbers (big "if"), then 35% of the electorate is Republican - and likely voters are even higher than that. Best case is that Santorum is pulling only 8% of the voters that do not already self-identify as Republicans. And Romney's only pulling 9% outside of the base - unless that 4% who "Don't Know" are all Republicans. 

So, how is Romney doing with Independent voters?

                                

                        

Romney has turned a 12-point lead with Independents into an 8-point deficit, in one quarter. And now we are going to see social conservative issues dominate the Republican primary campaign, which always turn off Independents. Both Santorum and Romney have been harsh, strident, and unequivocal in their constant denunciations of Obama - and Obama has been improving his standing.

The Republican delusion is that, once the RNC is over, the Republicans will join as one and denounce Obama with even scarier, crazier, and more vicious attacks than ever. 

And, naturally, since the nation takes the opinion of the Republican Party very seriously, the voters all gasp in horror that they ever could have considered voting for someone the Republicans hate that much. Obama loses. 

The bottom line is that everyone has heard this crap before. If you didn't believe it before, you won't believe it now. Judging by Pew's polling results, these attacks currently are believed by ...44% of the country. And that number seems to be declining. 

Maybe it's because the socialist Muslim hell that the Republicans all swore would happen, really didn't. Everything isn't nationalized, there are no FEMA "death camps", nobody is rounding up gun owners or taking their guns away, there is no hyper-inflation caused by Stimulus spending, there is no tyrannical government regulating every aspect of your life, and people aren't being forced into "collectives". Obama hasn't turned out to be dictator. 

So we've heard all of that scary crap before. The conservatives, the Tea Party, the entire wingnut radio industry, and the Republican elected officials all were completely wrong. No Apocalypse. No dictatorship. At no point did these things even threaten to be concerns, much less accurately depict the current reality. 

And Republicans are just going to recycle this same crap? "We were pretty off-base before on our scary predictions, but this time we're sure.!" Really? And this strategy has brought Obama to an 8-point lead over the Republicans, but it's gonna start working real good any day now, right? Money doesn't help when your message is the same narrative that has already been rejected.