PPP: Obama leads by 7 in OH

Ohio is another crucial swing state, worth 18 electoral votes (EV) out of the required 270 EV. Polling this year has shown Obama with varying leads, with the exception of a February Fox News poll showing Romney leading by six points. Even Rasmussen gave Obama a four-point lead in April (46/42). HuffPo averages out the polling to show Obama with a five-point lead (47/42), making it a State that "leans Obama". The President won Ohio 51/47 in 2008.

The latest poll from PPP for OH (875 RV, ±3.3% MoE, 5/3 - 5/6) gives Obama a seven-point lead (50/43).
Let's look at the ideological breakdown of the sample to dispel notions of bias:

Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 9%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 18%
Moderate......................................................... 31%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 22%
Very conservative ........................................... 19%

So, that's 41% conservative, 27% liberal.

PPP's Tom Jensen sums up the phenomenon that has allowed Obama  to assume this lead:

Ohio voters don't love Obama. They're evenly split with 48% approving and 48% disapproving of him, although that is an improvement from the negative numbers he's posted during most of his time in office. Obama's lead in the state may be driven more by the fact that Ohioans just don't much care for Mitt Romney. 37% have a favorable opinion of him to 53% with a negative one. That includes a 33/59 spread with independents. Romney's performance in Ohio in the primary wasn't terribly impressive and his issues seem to be extending to the general election.

We see this frequently in state polling. It's not so much that Obama is immensely popular, but rather that Romney is just not well-liked at all. This also means that significant margins of key demographics for Romney show soft support -- a greater percentage of a particular demographic saying that they will vote for him than the percentage that has a favourable opinion of him. Voters exhibiting soft support are less likely to turn out, volunteer, donate, or "talk up" their candidate, though they don't usually flip to the opposing candidate.

Even worse than Romney's "favourables" are those for Ron Paul:

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable........................................................ 26%
Unfavorable .................................................... 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Paul loses to Obama in a match-up 48/40. He loses women to Obama in the match-up by 24 points, splits white voters (45/43 O+2), loses voters 45 and under by at least 15 points, and loses moderates by nearly 30 points. He has all of Romney's weaknesses with key demographics, but he holds a higher percentage of undecided voters in most of them than Romney does.

We are now well past "Rosen-gate", where Ann Romney was supposed to have won over female voters and erased the gender gap by playing the victim card. It hasn't worked. Jensen notes:

The GOP's struggles with women and young voters really show themselves in Ohio. Obama's up 55-36 with women and has a 62-30 advantage with those under 30. If you extend the definition of 'young' voters to those under 45 Obama still holds a massive advantage at 56-35. Romney's winning seniors 49-45 but he needs a much bigger lead than that to make up for his weakness with young people.

 Seniors are a reliable Republican demographic, and they are only breaking for Romney by four points. Men break for Romney by six points (50/44, 7% undecided), which isn't strong. It hardly begins to counter the nineteen-point lead  Obama has with women. Moderates, as we've seen in so many States, break strongly for Obama. Apparently they don't believe that Obama is some kind of radical Marxist. In Ohio, Obama wins moderates 56/31 (13% undecided) in a match-up against Romney. The moderates that do support Romney show five points of soft support.

Conservatives, as one would expect, are Romney's biggest supporters. Those who describe themselves as "somewhat conservative" break overwhelmingly for Romney in a match-up 67/25 (9% undecided). Unfortunately for Romney, 67% of the 22% of the electorate that describe themselves as "somewhat conservative" is only 14.7%. He gains less than 15% from this overwhelming margin toward his 43% support. And only 59% of this demographic has a favourable opinion of Romney, which leaves him with eight points of soft support among those "somewhat conservative" voters.

For those describing themselves as "very conservative", the situation is much the same. Romney wins them by an even larger margin (79/15, 5% undecided). However, this only nets him another 15% of the electorate. Out of his 43 points of support, nearly 30 points (69%) of his support is from conservatives. The price of this is losing moderates steeply to Obama. And only 65% of those "very conservative" voters have a favourable opinion of Romney. That leaves a considerable 14% of soft support with this demographic.

Let's look at Obama's soft support. Among moderates, 58% have a favourable opinion of him -- two points more than break for him. Actually, with these subgroups, these small margins are meaningless. Among women, 53% are favourable (negligible two points soft support). Among white voters, 44% have a favourable opinion, leaving three points of soft support. Obama's senior supporters are solid at 47% favourable, compared with his 45% share of the demographic. Independent voters break for him at  43%, while 41% approve. Even the 25% of "somewhat conservative" voters breaking for Obama show 23% favourable opinions of him. He shows five points of soft support among "somewhat liberal" voters, but he's solid with "very liberal" voters (for what their 9% of the electorate is worth).

With Obama's support being so firm, it's unlikely that negative attacks will be effective against him. Romney, however, is vulnerable to depressed enthusiasm among his base -- especially among the "very conservative" voters showing considerable soft support for him.

Even worse, Romney's team has shown no ability to make Romney himself look better. Instead, they have concentrated on trying to make Obama look bad.

PPP: Obama leads VA by 8

Virginia is a crucial swing state, and one that Romney supporters continue to assert the Republicans will win. Actually, they assert this because there is no realistic path to 270 EV for Romney if he loses VA's 13 EV. Rasmussen, of course, found VA as a virtual tie, but this was mostly a propaganda piece to support the narrative that Romney is seeing dramatic improvement after winning the nomination. It should be interesting to see how Rasmussen walks this back as we get close to the election, since he gave Obama a nine-point lead one month earlier. For Obama, winning VA opens up several different paths to 270 EV, and it would be very difficult for Romney to block all of them. 

PPP's latest survey of Virginia (680 RV, ±3.8% MoE, 4/26 - 4/29) shows Obama ahead 51/43. 

Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling notes: 

Obama's approval rating in Virginia is 50% with 46% of voters disapproving of him. This marks just the 3rd time in our polling of the state since he took office that Obama's hit 50% on that front. Meanwhile Romney continues to be pretty unpopular with only 38% of voters rating him favorably while 52% hold a negative opinion.

Remember, this is weeks after Santorum dropped out. The poll was in the field while Gingrich virtually dropped out. Romney is the nominee, for all intents and purposes. We've been told of the impending surge (or "rally") for Romney once his primary opponents were defeated. It hasn't really materialised. In fact, undecided Republicans are only 2.2% of the electorate in VA. How do you overcome an eight-point lead by picking up 2.2% of the electorate? Magical thinking, that's how. Why is Romney still so unpopular if Republicans are "rallying" to him? 

This isn't some one-time phenomenon. Obama has showed a lead in VA of four points or more since 11/10:

Romney has held steady in the low 40's, while Obama has been moving into a slender majority. And this has happened during a bad economy with the GOP mercilessly attacking him. Yet, Republicans think that mercilessly attacking Obama, combined with a bad economy, will win the State for them. How? Magical thinking, that's how.

Tom Jensen again: 

Obama's winning 57-33 with voters under 30, which is not unusual. But he's also up 56-37 with voters between 30 and 45 which suggests the GOP has a problem in Virginia not just with the very young but also with the somewhat young. That generational gap speaks to the days of Virginia as a solid red state in Presidential elections probably being over.

 How about Ron Paul?

Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 39%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Ron Paul even loses those who voted for McCain in 2008 by 36/46 to Obama. He loses moderates 61/24 to the President. He loses women 55/35 in a match-up. He loses all age groups from anywhere from 7 to 13 points. Yeah, he's the one to save the day. 

In a match-up with Romney, Obama's worst case is a split with voters over 45. He splits Independent voters 44/46 (R +2), and wins women voters 55/38. Male voters aren't particularly strong for Romney, either. He splits them 47/48 (R +1), which is not a good way to overcome a gender gap. Obama also strongly wins over moderates in a match-up 62/28. Moderates were 31% of the sample, meaning that Obama gets 19.2% of the VA electorate here alone. 

Comparatively, Romney wins "somewhat conservative" voters (24% of the sample) very strongly in a match-up - 19/73. That accounts for 17.5% of the VA electorate. And "very conservative" voters (17% of the sample) break a bit more strongly for Romney - 13/82. But that's only about 14% of the VA electorate. So winning conservatives gets Romney 31.5% of the electorate, which is the bulk of his support. He really can't squeeze much more out of the conservative base. Undecided "very conservative" voters are less than 1% of the electorate (0.7%) in VA, and undecided "somewhat conservative" voters are only about 2% of the electorate. Even if Romney won over every single undecided moderate, that would only yield 3.1% of the vote. Add it up: 5.8% potential gain if Romney won every single undecided moderate, somewhat conservative, and very conservative voter. 

Even with this very unrealistic scenario, Obama would still narrowly win. 

With no strong advantage with any age group, either gender, Independent voters, or race, Romney is left with his base. He wins only a slim majority of white voters (51/42) for a mere nine-point lead in this crucial Republican base demographic. His "favourables" with white voters are 44/46, which means he already has 7% of white voters breaking for him who don't really like him. That's soft support. 

Obama's favourables with white voters are 41/55, which means that all of Obama's white supporters have a favourable opinion of him. That's strong support, even though it's less than Romney's. Take away that 7% of Romney's white supporters who don't like him, and Obama virtually breaks even with the demographic.

Even though Ann Romney thinks that she scored big over Rosen-gate, Romney's favourables with both genders are underwater. Women in VA see Romney unfavourably (35/44), as do men (42/50). That means that 6% of men break for Romney, although they don't like him.

For Obama, however, women see him favourably 53/41. Obama still has 2% of women that he could win over, at least in theory. The margin of error for these subgroups blurs these small distinctions. He doesn't even do badly with male VA voters in his "favorables" (47/50), which means that all of his male supporters see him favourably. No soft support at all with either gender.

This poll changes the average in HuffPo's electoral map to a narrow +3 lead for Obama in VA. If Rasmussen's results are removed from the average, Obama would show a 4.4% lead. 

If Obama holds all of the States that lean for him (WI, MI, OH, PA, and VA), he wins the election with 282 EV. He could lose every single "toss up" State, and still win. Even in those "toss up" States, Obama has shown leads in most of them in PPP's surveys. For example, PPP polled Obama with a five-point lead in FL (29 EV) less than three weeks ago. And PPP polled CO (9 EV) with 13 point Obama lead less than a month ago.

PPP: Obama improves in NV, leads by eight

Nevada is a State that Obama won 55/43 in 2008 against McCain. It was "icing on the cake" as far as electoral votes (EV) went, with NV providing six of Obama's 365 EV. 

However, polling done by PPP in 2011 showed Obama's "favourables" down and "underwater" in NV. He was only tying Romney 46/46 in 10/11. In fact, PPP noted:

“There aren’t many states Barack Obama won in 2008 where he has fallen as far as Nevada,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “What was an easy win last time looks like it will be a very tough hold in 2012.”

Not even six months later, the situation has dramatically changed. PPP's latest poll of NV (553 RV, ±4.2% MoE, 3/29 - 4/1) shows Obama prevailing in a match-up with Romney 51/43. 

October 2011 Nevada Results:

April 2012 Nevada Results:

PPP sums up this survey in a more optimistic tone:

Nevada, more than any other state, symbolizes how much the Presidential race has changed over the last six months.

In October Barack Obama was unpopular there, with a 44/53 approval rating. That was the story in our Nevada polling through most of last year. In July Obama was at 47/50 and in April he was at 45/52.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, polled much better with voters in Nevada than he did in most of the rest of the country. His favorability on our last poll there was narrowly positive at 45/44, and he managed to tie Obama at 46% in a state where the President won by 12 points in 2008. PPP's other polls in the state in 2011 showed a similarly close Obama/Romney race- a 1 point lead for Obama in July, a 3 point lead for Romney in April, and a 1 point lead for Obama in January.

That's not the case anymore. Over the last 5 months Obama's approval numbers have recovered, Romney's favorability numbers have taken a strong turn in the wrong direction, and Obama's opened up an 8 point lead in the state at 51-43.

 Obama now shows a 50/46 job approval in NV. Romney is currently polling as well as McCain, who lost. Nevada already held their Republican caucus on 2/4, and Romney won. This did not result in Republicans "rallying" to Romney, nor did the campaign sway voters outside of the base. In fact, the opposite happened. Oddly, this same scenario, which did not materialise in NV, is what Republicans are counting on to happen nationally to turn things around for their nominee. PPP notes:

Romney's net favorability meanwhile has dropped by 14 points to -13 with 38% of voters seeing him positively to 51% with a negative opinion. Part of his strength in Nevada had been an unusual number of Democrats seeing him favorably, but that crossover appeal has dropped from 27% to 18%. With independents his favorability is 36/54.

 The Right's latest head-spinning narrative is that all of this will change after the RNC. Republicans will "rally" to Romney, and I would assume that this narrative sees Independent voters as eager to jump on the bandwagon at that point. Romney will, according to this narrative, take more moderate positions to broaden his base of support. The base will nod knowingly as Romney winks to them, as they 'know' that he believes none of it. And, of course, there will be massive ad campaigns telling voters that Obama is dangerous, too powerful, and not powerful enough. In spite of these ads simply repeating the same things that the GOP has been saying for years, this time it will change everyone's mind. Democrats will be overwhelmed by this onslaught, will sulk, and will decide not to vote. Romney wins, and the evil "libs" are defeated. If this sounds delusional, it is. 

The strongest selling point of this narrative is that it buys the GOP another five months until they have to seriously evaluate things. Until 8/27, at least, no one can disprove this narrative. And this supposed "rallying" could take a month to 'solidify', so now we are up to late September.

Let's look at the results of the 4/12 PPP NV survey.  The sample is 42% conservative and 71% white.

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 10%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 17%
Moderate......................................................... 30%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 26%
Very conservative ........................................... 16%

Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 15%
White .............................................................. 71%
African-American ............................................ 8%
Other............................................................... 6%

 These are the highlights:

• Among moderates (30% of the sample), Obama's job approvals are strongly positive (63/32) with 5% unsure. Romney breaks negatively (32/56) among this same group. Outside of the Republican base, Obama is seen pretty favourably.
• Among voters who describe themselves as "very conservative" Romney has positive "favourables" (55/35). This is probably the floor for Romney, and it's not strong.
• Romney, among all registered voters, breaks negatively 38/51 with 10% unsure. As the campaign progresses, both candidates will see temporary dips in popularity as well as sudden rises. By starting with such high disapprovals, Romney can't afford the dips in his "favourables".
• Ron Paul is seen about as favourably (35/53) as Romney is, which is not a good position to be in. He's negative with moderates (50/36), and barely popular with "very conservative" voters (51/39).
• In the match-up with Romney, voters who describe themselves as "moderate" break strongly for Obama (67/29). Obama even picks up 21% of voters who describe themselves as "somewhat conservative". This leaves only 4% of "soft support" with moderates: 67% vote for you, 63% approve of you.
• There isn't really a "gender gap" in these numbers. A slim majority of both men (51/41) and women (51/44) break for Obama in a match-up with Romney. The "favourables" for Obama with men (52/46) and women (48/45) don't leave more than 2% "soft support" compared with the match-up.
• Romney is seen a bit less favourably by men (36/56) than women (40/47). There aren't enough "undecided" voters to sway for Romney to get him in positive territory with a single gender.
• Independent voters see Obama positively (50/46), and they break for him more strongly than that (54/39). There's still 4% "soft support", but Romney's in no position to take advantage of it by breaking negatively (36/54) in approval with Independent voters.
• Republicans break for Romney 78/12, with 10% undecided. Republicans are 39% of the polling sample. That means if Romney won every single Republican in a "rally", it would only gain him 8.6% of the general electorate, assuming 100% voter turnout. The best that Romney can hope for is a "toss-up" here, and he really needs the EV. Obama can spare them.
• Hispanics see Obama favourably (65/32), and favour him in a match-up with Romney (69/30). Only 1% are undecided, which doesn't leave a lot of room for Romney work with.
• If you think that Obama's job approval (50/42) is bad, how good is Romney breaking 50/42 with white voters in a match-up against Obama? This is the core demographic for Republican candidates, and he's not even winning a majority. With 8% undecided, the best that Romney can get is 6% of the general electorate - not enough to win.
• Obama is viewed negatively by voters over 65 (45/52), but this is another core demographic for Republicans where they barely show a majority. The match-up is almost identical (51/45), with Romney six points ahead. Romney is also seen negatively by this demographic (44/49), so it would seem that his support is not quite enthusiastic.
• Voters aged 18-29 see Romney somewhat positively (44/41), though they end up strongly breaking for Obama 62/35 in a match-up. Obama's approval of 59/32 with the youth vote aligns pretty closely with the match-up results. Only 3% are undecided in the match-up at this point. 

 Nevada's 6 EV have not been counted as part of Obama's solid core of 232 EV previously. If Obama only needs 38 EV above that, VA (13) and NV would be a great start. With both of the States favouring Obama by eight, that brings the target down to 19 EV. That means that Obama gets over 270 EV if he wins just one single State on this list: OH, PA, FL. He's (at least) narrowly leading in all of them, and some by as strong a margin as we see here. Just one is all he would need, and it wouldn't matter then if he lost CO (9), NH (4), NC (15), IA (7), AZ (10) or MO (11). Or, Obama could lose all three of the OH, PA, FL trio if he would win NC and CO. There are several possible paths to 270, and many fronts for Romney to defend.

Once more polling becomes available on CO, NH, MO and IA things will get considerably clearer. But, when you have "red" States like MO and AZ polling as a toss-up, it doesn't make a case for positive momentum.

Is Obama too liberal? Survey says "not really"

While wingnuts have devoted years to telling everyone with ears that Obama is some kind of "Far Left" Marxist figure, it might be useful to look at actual polling to see if the general electorate agrees with them on that characterization.

PPP (1000 RV, ±3.1% MoE, 3/22 - 3/25) did just that. 

Do you think Barack Obama is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

	Too liberal	Too conservative	About right	Not sure
All	44	9	43	4
Women	42	8	46	4
Men	45	11	40	4
Democrat	15	13	71	2
Republican	77	7	12	5
Independent/Other	45	7	40	8

If you consider those who think Obama is "too conservative", a slim majority of 53% would say that Obama is not "too liberal". This holds true for both men and women. Among Independent voters, it's largely an even break of 45/47.This seems to be a Republican phenomenon.

Let's look at the racial breakdowns: 

White	49	9	37	5
African-American	18	6	72	4
Asian	40	16	35	10
Hispanic	30	12	57	1

 White voters narrowly come down on the side of "too liberal" 49/46. But, for a demographic that the GOP is relying on, those are not strong numbers. The Republican nominee has to get at least 58% of the white vote (and probably better than that) to win. McCain got 55% and lost with that. With only 49% of the white voters believing Obama is too liberal, the GOP will have to try something else to get that other 10% or so.  In fact, this same survey shows that only 51% of white voters would go with the generic Republican candidate over Obama. Consider also that Romney polls worse than the generic Republican in most surveys.

More than two-thirds of Hispanics, however, would disagree with the "too liberal" label for Obama. Only 1% are undecided about the issue, in fact. This is odd, since the GOP hopes to use social conservative issues to win over Hispanic voters.

How about the age breakdowns? Surely the elderly see Obama as a Communist radical, don't they?

18 to 29	31	19	44	6
30 to 45	46	11	38	5
46 to 65	47	6	44	3
Older than 65	44	6	45	5

Not really. A slim majority of 51% among those aged 65+ would disagree with characterising Obama as "too liberal". In fact, no age group shows a plurality disagreeing with that. 

Let's look the breakdown based on income. The wealthy must really think that Obama is a Marxist demon, right? 

Less than $30,000	46	11	36	7
$30,000 to $50,000	43	13	38	6
$50,000 to $75,000	42	9	47	3
$75,000 to $100,000	46	7	45	2
Over $100,000	36	8	52	4

 Not so much.  

60% of those with annual incomes over $100k would disagree that Obama is "too liberal". In fact, it's the people with the lowest incomes that are most likely to think of Obama as "too liberal". The plurality of everyone with an income over $30k doesn't see Obama as "too liberal".

So, it's Republicans who see Obama as "too liberal", and obviously Republicans think that everyone agrees with them. This is just more tone-deaf messaging from a Party that truly believes that the things that work on the Republican base works on the general electorate.

PPP national: Obama leads Romney by 4

National polls are broad indicators; the real action is the individual States for their electoral votes (EV). The popular vote percentage really doesn't matter in itself, but at this stage of the election cycle it can give an idea how the candidates are viewed by the voters. PPP only does monthly national polling outside of their weekly DKos/SEIU surveys, so it's worth looking at them when they are released. 

The latest PPP national poll (900 RV, ±3.3% MoE, 3/15 - 3/17) shows Obama with a small, four-point lead over Romney (48-44) in a match-up. 

PPP's Tom Jensen notes:

PPP's newest national poll finds Barack Obama leading all of his potential Republican opponents, although by slightly smaller margins than he did a month ago.

In the most likely match up Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-44. In February Obama's advantage was 7 points at 49-42. The main difference is that Romney is now taking 15% of the Democratic vote, up from 10% he was getting a month ago.

When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is included Obama's lead expands to 7 points at 46-39, with Johnson taking 7%. 39% of Johnson voters would support Romney if Johnson wasn't in the picture, while only 18% would go for Obama. I doubt Johnson will really get anywhere close to 7% in the general, but the numbers do make it clear that Obama's base is more committed to him than Romney's is and that any half serious third party bid is more likely to hurt Romney's support.

...and further:

The reason Obama continues to do so well, despite voters being split on his job
performance (48% both approving and disapproving), is that the Republicans are so
strongly disliked. Santorum is the most “popular,” but only 36% have a favorable
impression of him, and 53% an unfavorable one. That is down from 39-46 in February.
Romney sits at 33-58, Paul at 30-58, and Gingrich at 28-61. Obama ties Paul with
independents but leads Romney by six, Santorum by eight, and Gingrich by 15.

 So there is a bit of concern here. Obama's lead over Romney has dropped three points in one month. Obama's job approval is 48/48, which is better than Romney's 33/58 by a long shot. If anything, this poll shows that Paul and Santorum do better than Romney in a national match-up. 

In the match-up with Romney, Obama prevails 48/44, with 8% undecided. The largest groups of undecided voters are moderates and those describing themselves as "somewhat conservative". This last group could mean trouble for Obama, of course.

Let's examine the highlights of this survey:

• Obama's job approval with moderates is strongly positive (54/41) by 13 points. With all registered voters, only 4% are "not sure" at this point.
• Romney's "favourables" with moderates are strongly negative (31/54) by 24 points. Even among "very conservative" voters, Romney breaks negative (43/58).
• The gender gap is in full display here, with women and men each breaking by about eight points as far as Obama's job approval goes. Of course, female voters break toward approval. 
• In a match-up with Romney, we see a familiar sight. Women break strongly for Obama (51/42), while men largely split in Romney's favour (47/45). Republicans must do better than a split with male voters to compensate for the women they are losing in the Culture War, but this is not what's happening.
• Obama breaks even in job approval with Independent voters (47/47), with only 6% "not sure". While this is hardly stellar for the President, Romney's "favourables" are dismal with this group (29/58), and 13% of Independent voters are "not sure" about him.
• The match-up with Independent voters between Obama and Romney shows Romney beating his "favourables" with the group, but losing to Obama 48/42 (10% undecided). That means that 13% of Independents don't like Romney, but break for him against Obama - which is "soft support". Obama's break is right in line with his approval, indicating much more solid support. Considering this, the only slight drop of only 3% in undecided voters may indicate that Romney has a ceiling here with Independents.
• Romney is seen negatively by white voters (36/55), and he only breaks 52/39 in a match-up against Obama with these voters. Romney has to do much better than this with white voters, and the percentage of undecided voters is virtually unchanged in the match up compared with his "favourables". Again, there is a 16-point gap between white voters who like Romney, and those who break for him in a match-up. Soft support.
• Hispanic voters break strongly for Obama (64/26), as we've seen in all polling. Obama has 67% approval from Hispanics, which shows solid support. He has 3% of Hispanics that he can still pick up. 
• Among voters over 65 in age, Romney is seen quite negatively (35/54). Compare this with Obama's negative break with this same group at 45/50. In a match-up, Obama breaks even with elderly voters 47/46. Again, Romney has 11% of these voters break for him who don't like him. Soft support.
• Young voters (18-29) break for Obama by nearly 3-1 in a match-up with Romney (64/22). Obama has 69% approval with this group, so he has a potential 5% more voters to pick up. 
• No age demographic shows Romney leading by more than 5 points, and none of them show a significant difference from the overall percentage of undecided voters in that demographic. Romney's "favourables" with these age demographics are all worse than his break in the match-up, indicating soft support.

At this point, we see that Obama's supporters are solid, while Romney's are more reluctant. Yet, the right-wing narrative is that Obama's supporters won't show up to vote, while Romney's will. Those undecided in their opinion of Romney aren't breaking for him in match-ups right now, either. 

While only 39% of white voters have a favourable job approval for Obama, he picks up all 39% of them in a match-up. Likewise, with female voters, Obama has 52% job approval and he picks up 51% in a match-up. With voters over 65, he has 45% job approval, and he wins 47% in a match-up. Hispanics and voters under 29 are the same. Among voters 45-65, Obama only wins 45% job approval, but he picks up 44% of them in a match-up. 

That's solid support, as compared with Romney winning voters in match-ups who don't like him.

PPP: Obama up by 23 in MA

A new PPP survey of Massachusetts (936 RV, ±3.2% MoE, 3/16 - 3/18) shows Obama leading Romney in a match-up 58/35. 

Barack Obama has drastically improved his approval rating and performance against the Republican field in Massachusetts since last fall and now leads all Republican challengers by 23 points or more, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds.

Obama leads Newt Gingrich by a whopping 34 points in Massachusetts, 62-28 (up from 58-31 last September); he leads Rick Santorum by 32 points, 61-29; and leads Ron Paul by 28 points, 58-30 (up from 55-30 last September). Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney performs best in a head to head matchup versus Obama but still loses by 23 points, 58-35 (down from 53-40 last September).

MA went for Obama 62/36 in 2008. PPP's sample for this poll shows:

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 32%
Barack Obama................................................ 57%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 11%

This makes five points less for Obama, and four points less for McCain than the actual results. The sample narrowly leans Democratic by one point. One point in the sample cannot make up for a 23 point lead. 

Also, Obama has positive "favourables" in MA:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 57%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

 MA has 12 EV, and is part of Obama's solid base of 239 EV.

PPP national 3/8 results, Obama up by 3

I should take some time to examine the 3/8 PPP (Dkos/SEIU) national poll. 

First, personal approval for Obama:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Not sure
All	48	47	4
Women	54	42	4
Men	43	52	5
Democrat	86	10	5
Republican	10	88	2
Independent/Other	40	52	7

We see Obama essentially breaking even with the general electorate, while losing Independents by 12. We also see the now-familiar gender gap, with Obama coming out ahead in the net (+12 women, -9 men). 

This is a noticeable improvement over last week's breakdown (3/1):

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Not sure
All	47	49	4
Women	52	43	4
Men	41	55	4
Democrat	83	14	3
Republican	9	89	2
Independent/Other	43	49	8

 Most important is the small closing of the gender gap in Obama's favour, and a slight increase in his base support. 

Approval from moderates increased by six points from the 3/1 results, whites increased by 3, while Hispanics showed a steep 20% drop in approval while remaining in positive territory (53/36). Obama also picked up 3 points of approval in the South, and 7 points from the 18-29 age demographic.

In the generic match-up, Obama leads by 3 (49/46):

Generally speaking, if there was an election today would you vote to re-elect Barack Obama, or would you vote for his Republican opponent?

	Barack Obama	Republican opponent	Not sure
All	49	46	5
Women	56	40	4
Men	42	51	6
Democrat	87	10	4
Republican	8	87	5
Independent/Other	44	48	8

Once again, the net effect of the gender gap is positive for Obama (+16 for women, -9 for men). Democratic support is right up at the level of approval, which shows strength. Independents break more in favour of Obama than their approval would indicate, which shows weakness with those voters. Not surprisingly, Independent voters show more uncertainty than other demographics. 

Bear in mind, though, that this generic match-up represents the best-case scenario for Republicans. When it comes down to a match-up with actual, named candidates, Obama does much better.

Hispanic voters, in spite of their approval drop, still break strongly for Obama in this generic match-up (56/33). This is virtually the same as the last poll (2/23), in which Hispanics broke 59/34 in Obama's favour. 

Voters in the South moved only very slightly more toward Obama in net: 46/49 from a previous 44/50. Voters in the Midwest showed negligible change: 45/48 from 45/46.

When it comes to voting enthusiasm, the national average went up: 81% from the previous (2/23) 77%. Of that 81% who are at least "somewhat excited" to vote, 54% are "very excited". These numbers are the standards by which other demographics are judged to "above average" or not. 

Both Democratic and Republican partisans are above average in enthusiasm, but the Democrats have the advantage: 62% "very excited" to the Republicans' 57% "very excited". 

Independent voters show a depressed enthusiasm, with only 69% excited and only 35% of them "very excited" to vote. These numbers are well below the national average, though only 8% are disinterested. Women are about average at 79% (53% "very excited"), those aged 65+ are just slightly below average at 78% (50% "very excited"), and likewise for white voters at 79% excited (50% "very excited"). Men are about average at 82% (54% "very excited"). When you include the 21% of women who are "not at all excited", compared to the men's 18% "not at all excited", we see a slight advantage for the males in possible turnout at this early stage. 

The Tea Party is average in total at 81%, but show a much higher 60% who are "very excited". Those outside the Tea Party, for comparison, show an 82% enthusiasm with a lower (but still average) 53% "very excited". The Tea Party, per the demographics, is only 29% of the electorate. Those outside it are 60%, with 11% "not sure". Since you can't vote with an exclamation point, the 6% "very excited" advantage seems to wash out in proportion to the size of the Tea Party's vote. Added to that is an identical 19% "not at all excited" for both those in and out of the Tea Party, and you see that a significant number of those Tea Party members may not even turn out at all. Those "not sure" about their Tea Party affiliation break strongly for the generic Republican (62/28), but approximately one-quarter of them are uninterested in voting at this point, and those that are show only a very below-average 42% "very excited" figure. 

Moderates, too, show depressed enthusiasm. Only 78% are excited (3% below average), but more telling is that only 48% (6% below average) are "very excited" and 21% are disinterested. While this demographic breaks strongly for Obama (66/29), actual turnout may not be strong. 

In terms of actual job approval for Obama: 

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

	Approve	Disapprove	Not sure
All	48	49	3
Women	53	44	3
Men	43	55	2
Democrat	84	12	3
Republican	10	89	2
Independent/Other	42	56	3

Independents are breaking for Obama 6 points above their approval. There is less uncertainty about approval than there is about the choices in the match-up. 3% isn't much room for Republicans to work an effective scare campaign against Obama, nor a "failed President" narrative. The 8% of unsure Independents provides some hope for the GOP, though this is just under 2% of the electorate, and the enthusiasm of this demographic is not encouraging for such an effort.

On the recent Rush Limbaugh controversy, the poll results are not encouraging for the Republicans:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rush Limbaugh?

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Not sure
All	26	58	16
Women	22	61	17
Men	30	56	14
Democrat	8	83	10
Republican	52	27	21
Independent/Other	20	61	19

 If you want an issue that could potentially sway Independent voters, this is it. And Limbaugh has a lot more of the same vitriol to release at ill-timed moments.

Did you think the comments Rush Limbaugh made about Sandra Fluke last week were appropriate or inappropriate?

	Appropriate	Inappropriate	Not sure
All	16	70	14
Women	11	71	18
Men	21	70	9
Democrat	7	84	9
Republican	28	55	17
Independent/Other	14	69	17

 Not much in the way of support for the GOP's crusade. Keep digging that hole, Republicans.

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party?

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Not sure
All	31	56	12
Women	28	58	14
Men	35	55	10
Democrat	7	84	9
Republican	68	20	12
Independent/Other	19	62	19

Does this look like the nation's voters are clamouring for Republican 'solutions'?

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party?

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Not sure
All	44	47	9
Women	51	39	10
Men	38	54	9
Democrat	82	11	7
Republican	8	86	6
Independent/Other	31	51	18

 Is is pretty safe to say that The Republican Party wishes that it were as popular as those "unpopular" Democrats? Even that crucial male demographic sees the Democratic Party about as favourably as the Republicans. It also looks like it would be an easier task to swing Independents toward the Democrats than it would be to swing them toward the Republicans. And there's a lot fewer people that are "unsure" about the Democratic Party than the GOP.

The "Rasmussen Effect" on polling averages

Pollster.com aggregates a multitude of polls and averages them out to show a composite view of the election.

Their composite average of the match-up between Obama and Romney currently puts Obama up by 2.9%.

This is the graph if we include all pollster's results (including Rasmussen):

This is the graph if we exclude Rasmussen: 

This is the graph if we exclude all of PPP's polling (and the DKos results):

It's clear that Rasmussen's polling reduces Obama's numbers by nearly a point (0.9%), and artificially inflates Romney's numbers by the same amount.

PPP's polling, however, inflates Obama by a mere 0.1% and actually inflates Romney by 0.2%!

Yet, Republicans (and the pundits who routinely shill for them) dismiss PPP as some kind of radical, left-leaning pollster who deliberately suppresses Republican support in their results. This simple comparison shows that PPP favours the Republican front-runner, however slightly.

Let's do this same comparison for polls since March.

First, all pollsters:

Now, let's take Rasmussen out of the mix for the same period:

Next, let's put Rasmussen back in and take out all PPP (and the DKos) results from the mix:

Again, removing Rasmussen adds nearly a full point (0.9%) to Obama's support, while reducing Romney's support by nearly a full point (0.9%). This is a net bias of nearly two points in the Republicans' favour produced by Rasmussen's skewed polling. 

And again, removing PPP hardly changes anything, because PPP isn't an outlier. Including PPP in polling averages gives Romney a false 0.2% edge, while giving Obama a mere 0.1% false edge. PPP actually gives a net 0.1% bias in the Republicans' favour. 

Consider also that Rasmussen automatically gives Republicans a 3.2% boost in his figures due to his "likely voter" screen. Do we see a 3.2% difference between "likely voters" and registered voters in these results? No, we don't. 

 -------------------------
Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:

PPP: "Obama up in NC", leads by 3

I'm having to catch up with PPP's latest poll on NC (804 RV, ±3.5% MoE, 3/8 - 3/11), which places Obama three points ahead of Romney in a match-up. 

PPP's Tom Jensen writes:

Whoever the Republican nominee is Barack Obama has an advantage over him right now. Obama leads Romney by 3 points, 49-46. That's up from a 1 point lead a month ago. And Obama's ahead of Santorum by 5 points, 49-44. That's up from a 2 point lead in February. Obama's up 48-41 on Ron Paul and 51-42 on Newt Gingrich.

Obama's breaking even on his approval numbers in the state with 49% giving him good marks and 49% poor ones. This is the first time since last June Obama hasn't been under water in North Carolina. Obama hit a low water mark in September 43/53. He's seen modest improvement with Democrats and Republicans since then, but the really big shift is with independents. He's gone from 31/62 with them to 46/51- they're still not fond of him but he's coming a lot closer to breaking even now than he did six months ago. 

Part of Obama's good numbers in North Carolina are a function of his own improved popularity, but he's also benefiting from the poor image of his opponents. As we're finding in most swing states Mitt Romney is very unpopular with only 31% of voters seeing him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. Rick Santorum doesn't do much better- his favorability spread is 36/52.

As much as the Republican base screeches about the unpopular President, it's clear in poll after poll that their front-runner is even more unpopular. 

Let's look at the ideological breakdown of this poll's sample:

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 25%
Very conservative ........................................... 20%

Using simple arithmetic, we can see that self-described conservatives are 45% of the sample, and only 27% are liberal. Of course, this has not prevented partisan wingnuts from dismissing this poll as biased toward "the Far Left". With the largest group describing themselves as "moderates", I guess the new definition of "Far Left" is "moderate". Because, in the mind of a wingnut, any poll showing Republicans losing is "biased". 

 

As we see above, the race in 2008 was very close for NC. Let's look at PPP's Dustin Ingalls' response to a critic for an explanation of what, exactly, has changed in NC since 2008 (emphasis added):

Mark: You obviously don't know anything about NC, which is one of the fastest-growing states in the country, and has been for 20 years. Some estimate that a third of the state's population did not live here four years ago. Most of the voters who move here are more liberal than the natives and more educated. We asked in a poll one month last year when respondents first lived in NC, and those who moved here or were born 20 years ago or after were going for Obama by 20 points over Romney. (Tom Jensen and I are among this group.) That was a huge chunk of the electorate, and this was when Obama was in worse shape than he is now.

So Obama's decline with independents and and moderate/conservative Dems is buffered by the sheer demographic shifts taking place in this state, plus his continuing popularity with black and Hispanic voters (and growing popularity with the latter because of Republican rhetoric on immigration). That's why you see him holding his ground or even improving in other growing, diverse states like VA, CO, NM, and AZ relative to states which are declining in population and which are older and whiter, like OH, PA, NH, and most of the Midwest.

I recall, during the 2008 election, dealing with conservatives fixated on the results of 2004 (and even 2000) in states to "prove" that Obama couldn't win. In the response above, "Mark" claims that, since Obama is now 'known', he cannot win over any Republican. Sadly, this is a pretty standard level of 'analysis' from conservatives. Voter demographics change, and time is not on the side of the GOP. By tying themselves to a 1950's-style morality and mindset, dismissing virtually all Hispanics as "illegals", and virtually all African-American votes as "fraudulent", the Republicans have locked themselves into an older, whiter voting base. And they aren't even strongly carrying that older and whiter demographic. 

Let's look at the highlights of this poll: 

• In job approval, Obama wins moderates by more than 2-to-1 (67/30). Romney's "favourables" with moderates are reversed (24/65). Yet, per the wingnut narrative, Obama is on the "Far Left". 
• In a a match-up with Romney, Obama carries moderates by more than 2-to-1 (64/28).
• Obama's job approval numbers show a strong gender gap. Women view him more favourably (55/42), while males are the opposite (41/56). Males are turning out to be a crucial demographic in the Republican base in this election.
• Romney's "favourables", however, are lousy for both genders. Women break a negative 28/57, while men break a negative 34/55. This means that Romney is viewed less favourably by men than Obama is.
• When matched up with Romney, these male favourables go out the window. Women break in Obama's favour 55/39, which is in line with their approvals. Men break in Romney's favour 54/42, although only 34% of men have a favourable opinion of Romney. This is classic "soft support", with males breaking along the lines of their approval of the incumbent, rather than the alternative. 
• Obama's job approval with Independents (as mentioned by Jensen) are negative (46/51), but their  view of Romney is even worse (36/53). 
• Independents, however, break for Romney is a match-up (44/49). That leaves 8% of Independents breaking for a candidate (Romney) that they don't view favourably. Again, soft support.
• Romney wins white voters 57/37, but Republicans will have to do better than 57% of this crucial demographic in order to win.
• Obama wins a majority of voters 45 or younger when matched up with Romney. Romney, however, only breaks even with voters over 45. 

In summary, we see that the conservative base (despite being 45% of the sample) is isolated in public opinion. There is a strong breaking point between moderates (and liberals, of course) and those who consider themselves to be more conservative. Romney (and the other candidates) simply fail to appeal beyond the conservative base in significant percentages. 

We also see soft support for Romney among males and Independent voters. Voting demographics with soft support usually do not donate money or volunteer for a campaign, and they do not "talk up" a candidate to to others in their peer group. Rather than swinging to the other side, they tend to sit out elections if their opinion of their candidate sours further - or if their view of the opponent becomes more favourable. Undecided voters in demographics showing soft support are also much less likely to show up at the polls.

Older voters are also unreliable for Romney. He's underwater with voters 45 or older by more than 20 points, and only breaking even in a match-up. 14% of his match-up support among voters 65+ doesn't view him favourably. This hardly seems like a solid base to build a culture war upon.

North Carolina is a crucial State for the Republican path to 270 electoral votes (EV), which is what it takes to win the Presidency. Without NC and its 15 EV, the GOP has to win every toss-up State. Even then, it's a dicey proposition to get to 270 EV. For Obama, winning NC opens up several possibilities to reach 270 EV. 

If CO and VA go to Obama, the addition of NC would allow him to lose FL, PA, OH, NH, and all of the Republican-leaning toss-up States - while still winning re-election. 

With PA currently polling Obama ahead, PA + NC would allow Obama to lose CO, IA, FL, OH, NH and all of the Republican-leaning toss-ups - and still reach 270 EV. 

So the Republican effort to win the White House pretty much hangs on which way NC goes, and Republican partisans are reduced to crowing over a possible tie within the margin of error (MoE), or dismissing the polling completely as 'biased'. I fail to see how having an election depend on a virtual coin toss in NC is a positive thing for the GOP, but that seems to be their current optimistic scenario. 

Also, having Obama showing positive momentum in NC with Independents is hardly a good omen for Republicans. Voters are unlikely to be convinced that Obama is scary at this point. The key is for Romney to be seen more favourably, but the extended primary is making that less and less likely by the day. With the rabid Republican base pushing Romney further and further toward the Right, these numbers we are seeing now could easily become the Republican high-water mark in NC for 2012.

 -------------------------
Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections: 
 

PPP: Obama "doing better" in PA, leads by 7 over Romney

In the crucial swing State of Pennsylvania, PPP 's latest poll (689 RV, ±3.7% MoE, 3/8/ - 3/11) finds Obama taking a lead over Romney. The President's job approval figures have improved slightly since PPP's last survey (11/11), but he only has a two-point lead over Santorum.

Barack Obama's numbers in Pennsylvania are the best they've been in 10 PPP polls of the state taken since he was elected President. He now leads Mitt Romney by a 7 point margin in the state, 49-42.

Pennsylvania voters are evenly divided on Obama's performance with 47% approving and an equal 47% disapproving of the job he's doing. That's a big improvement from Obama's numbers in the state over the course of 2011, which came in at 42/53, 46/48, 42/52, and 46/49 on our four polls of the state. Obama's numbers are up across the board when it compared to our November poll- with Democrats he's gone from 69/26 to 74/21, with Republicans he's gone from 9/85 to 15/78, and with independents he's gone from 45/53 to 52/41.

Once again, we see that the Republican front-runner, Romney, is much less popular than the supposedly hated Obama:

In addition to Obama's approval numbers improving, Romney's image has taken a hit in the state over the last 3 months. His favorability numbers were already bad at 32/51, but now they're worse at 30/60. 

 With Rasmussen having already crowned Romney as the nominee (and giving him big leads over Obama since that point in his skewed polls), it might be interesting to note that, nationally, Gallup is seeing a lack of enthusiasm for this nominee among Republicans: 

The 35% of Republicans who at this point say they would vote "enthusiastically" for Mitt Romney for president if he were to win the GOP nomination is identical to the 35% of Republicans who said the same about Romney back in late January/early February 2008.

In that same 2008 poll, however, 47% of Republicans said they would vote enthusiastically for John McCain, who ended up as that year's GOP nominee. In short, Romney's enthusiasm deficit in 2008 has carried over to his current campaign, with the difference being that none of the other nominees this year are generating any more enthusiasm among Republicans than Romney is.

This pretty much confirms what many people have been saying for a while now: Republicans are voting against Obama, not for any kind of "conservative alternative".

But, national Republican views aside, this PA poll is good news. Rasmussen posted a virtual tie in his February poll, which was mysteriously in the field for 15 days to find 438 "likely voters". Up until now, PPP's average of four polls showed basically what Rasmussen found, with the last poll (11/22/11) showing a 45/45 tie with Romney. 

Other polling for PA: 

• Franklin and Marshall (592 RV, ±4.0%, 2/14 - 2/20): Obama leads by 8 points.
• Muhlenberg (625 RV, ±4% MoE, 2/15 - 2/21): Obama leads by 11 points.
• Quinnipiac (1256 RV, ±2.8% MoE, 3/7 -3/12): Obama leads by 6 points.

Let's dig into the latest PPP poll highlights:

• Obama won PA in 2008, 55/44. In this survey we see:

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 46%
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7% 

So, the survey sample shows eight points less than reality for the Democrats, and two points stronger than reality for the Republicans. Let's not bother pretending that this is some left-wing sample here.

• Romney is seen only marginally positive by those who voted for McCain in 2008 (47/42). Yet, in a match-up with Obama, Romney wins 76% of those former McCain voters. That's soft support.
•  Obama has strong job approval from moderates, breaking 67/24. Romney has the reverse when it comes to "favourables" with moderates (23/67). 
• In a match-up with Romney, Obama wins moderates 3-1 (68/21). Outside of that conservative base, Republicans just aren't that popular. Obama even wins 24% of those who self-identify as "somewhat conservative".
• In a match-up with Romney, Obama wins women voters by 12 points (50/38), and breaks even with males (48/47). With males turning out to be a critical demographic for the Republicans this election, they can't afford to just break even with them in match-ups.
• Romney has underwater "favourables" with Republicans (40/46).
• Romney basically just breaks even with white voters (47/45), which is another crucial demographic for Republicans. 
• Romney narrowly wins voters aged 65+ (47/44, R +3). Yet another crucial demographic that looks weak.

I look at the electoral math here. 

Basically, if Obama can win VA, then winning PA (21 EV) will put him over 270 electoral votes (EV), which means that he wins. That assumes that he wins IA, which Ann Selzer's recent poll might call into question. 

It's a good thing, then, that PPP just polled NC (15 EV) with a three-point lead for Obama. That allows him to lose IA and CO, and still win. 

On top of that, Obama leads in OH (20 EV) currently. And FL is a coin flip; if the Republicans lose that coin toss, they lose everything.

PPP: Obama "crushing" GOP in Maine

Maine (ME) is another of the solid bloc of electoral votes (EV) that Obama starts with on the path to 270 EV. 

It is a State that was presumed solid based on PPP's October poll and their 3/11 poll. Now we have a new survey from PPP (1256 RV, ±2.8% MoE, 3/2 - 3/4) showing both job approval increases and larger leads for the President in ME:

President Obama leads each of his potential Republican challengers in Maine by 15 points or more, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. The President leads Mitt Romney in Maine 58-35 (up from 49-38 the last time PPP polled the matchup in October), leads Rick Santorum 58-35, and leads Newt Gingrich 60-32 (up from 55-35 compared to last October).  Ron Paul actually performs best against Obama but still loses by 16 points, 54-38.

Now, that's a 23-point lead over Romney. And we also find that this "hated tyrant" is far more popular with ME voters than the Republican alternatives:

The Republican candidates suffer from horrific favorability ratings. Mitt Romney is viewed favorably by just 30% of voters compared to 63% who view him unfavorably (down from 38-49 last October). Rick Santorum sits at 29% favorable and 63% unfavorable. Newt Gingrich sees the worst favorability rating of the group at 17% favorable and 74% unfavorable (somehow down even further compared to where he was last October at 25-63). Ron Paul once again performs best, with a 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable opinion rating (up slightly from 24-57 last October).

Meanwhile President Obama enjoys a healthy 55-41 positive job approval rating in Maine, up sharply from 47-48 the last time PPP polled Maine in October.

Strong majorities disapprove of the Republican alternatives to the "Kenyan socialist", while a majority approves of the "unpopular" President.

Let's look at the ideological breakdown of the poll for further clues:

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 14%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 21%
Moderate......................................................... 31%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 21%
Very conservative ........................................... 14%

 35% of ME voters are at least "somewhat conservative". That's the same percentage that breaks for Romney and Santorum. Again we see that the Republican candidates' appeal is limited to the GOP base. Maine just had their Republican caucus last month (2/11), and presumably voters were exposed to Republican ad campaigns. This undermines the Right's fist-shaking contention that, once the general election gets going, voters will be swayed by a Super PAC-funded ad blitz. 

What could that future ad blitz focus on that would sway voters so much? A bad economy? Surely voters are aware of the bad economy already. Socialism? Haven't we heard that non-stop for years now? Gas prices? Polling shows that Congress (and Republicans in Congress, specifically) get the blame for that from the voters. Scary conspiracies? Haven't we had these non-stop for years already? 

As far as the idea that Republicans will rally to the nominee once he is selected, all I can say is, "So what?". 

The GOP can't win with just their base, and they are working hard to turn off everyone outside of it. On top of that, they are living in a bubble reality in which it's still 2010. They still think that their "magic words" of "liberal", "socialist", "Kenya", "failure", etc. actually work on anyone outside of the base. The GOP is still selling a "war against the libs", which is not what Independent voters want. It's not what they wanted in 2010, either. They wanted jobs, and instead they got a war against "liberals". 

Let's look at the example of Maine, a State that elected a right-wing Governor (LePage) in 2010. PPP's 3/11 poll shows that 2010 is over in ME:

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve................. 41%
Disapprove............ 52%
Not sure ................ 7%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for independent
Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul LePage, or
Democrat Libby Mitchell?
Eliot Cutler ............ 43%
Paul LePage.......... 35%
Libby Mitchell ........ 19%
Not sure ................ 3%

Q3 If there was an election for the State
Legislature today, would you generally vote for
Democratic candidates or Republicans?
Democrats............. 51%
Republicans .......... 37%
Not sure ................ 13%

 If Obama is "hated" because he is under Gallup's magical 46% mark, then how popular can LePage be when he is at 41% approval? This is a State where a slim majority want to vote for a Democratic-controlled Legislature, not a "war against the libs". This is a State where Obama's job approval rating is going up, not down. How can anyone on the Right look at these numbers and think that the strategies of 2010 will continue to work in 2012? 

The answer is "delusion". Conservatives have isolated themselves socially into a world where everyone agrees with them. Everyone has learned to nod or make inane responses to their crazy, out-of-touch talking points and wild conspiracies. If you don't do that, you will get a dose of spittle-flecked fury and a long, angry rant. Nobody's mind will be changed, so why not just mutter vague agreement and let these crazy geezers live in their fantasy world? 

Having laid 2010 to rest, let's look at this new poll's highlights:

• Obama gets strong "favourables" from moderates (68/25), while Romney gets nearly the reverse (28/66). Moderates break more than 3-1 in Obama's favour when matched up with Romney (69/22).
• Obama has strong "favourables" with female voters (62/34), while merely breaking even with men (48/47). Males are turning out to be a key Republican demographic in this election, and breaking even is not a strong showing.
• In a match-up with Romney, Obama wins women voters strongly (64/30) and a slim majority of men (52/41). That means that 6% of men who have an unfavourable opinion of Obama still break for him in a match-up with Romney. 
• A slim majority of Independent voters have a favourable opinion of Obama (54/38), and they break strongly for Obama in a match-up with Romney (57/32). Again, 6% of Independent voters with an unfavourable job approval for Obama still end up voting for him over Romney.
• Obama picks up 16% of self-identified Republicans when matched up with Romney. 
• White voters (another crucial Republican demographic) break strongly for Obama over Romney (58/35).
• Voters older than 65 really do not like Romney. He has a negative 34/56 rating with this crucial Republican demographic. Obama wins the 65+ age group 58/35 in a match-up with Romney.

Maine has only 4 EV, and went for Obama 58/40 in 2008. While delusional wingnuts will likely continue to point to 2010's mid-term election as a sign that the GOP is competitive in ME, it seems that three polls over the course of one year dispute that narrative.