National polls are broad indicators; the real action is the individual States for their electoral votes (EV). The popular vote percentage really doesn't matter in itself, but at this stage of the election cycle it can give an idea how the candidates are viewed by the voters. PPP only does monthly national polling outside of their weekly DKos/SEIU surveys, so it's worth looking at them when they are released.
The latest PPP national poll (900 RV, ±3.3% MoE, 3/15 - 3/17) shows Obama with a small, four-point lead over Romney (48-44) in a match-up.
PPP's Tom Jensen notes:
PPP's newest national poll finds Barack Obama leading all of his potential Republican opponents, although by slightly smaller margins than he did a month ago.
In the most likely match up Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-44. In February Obama's advantage was 7 points at 49-42. The main difference is that Romney is now taking 15% of the Democratic vote, up from 10% he was getting a month ago.
When Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is included Obama's lead expands to 7 points at 46-39, with Johnson taking 7%. 39% of Johnson voters would support Romney if Johnson wasn't in the picture, while only 18% would go for Obama. I doubt Johnson will really get anywhere close to 7% in the general, but the numbers do make it clear that Obama's base is more committed to him than Romney's is and that any half serious third party bid is more likely to hurt Romney's support.
...and further:
The reason Obama continues to do so well, despite voters being split on his job
performance (48% both approving and disapproving), is that the Republicans are so
strongly disliked. Santorum is the most “popular,” but only 36% have a favorable
impression of him, and 53% an unfavorable one. That is down from 39-46 in February.
Romney sits at 33-58, Paul at 30-58, and Gingrich at 28-61. Obama ties Paul with
independents but leads Romney by six, Santorum by eight, and Gingrich by 15.
So there is a bit of concern here. Obama's lead over Romney has dropped three points in one month. Obama's job approval is 48/48, which is better than Romney's 33/58 by a long shot. If anything, this poll shows that Paul and Santorum do better than Romney in a national match-up.
In the match-up with Romney, Obama prevails 48/44, with 8% undecided. The largest groups of undecided voters are moderates and those describing themselves as "somewhat conservative". This last group could mean trouble for Obama, of course.
Let's examine the highlights of this survey:
- Obama's job approval with moderates is strongly positive (54/41) by 13 points. With all registered voters, only 4% are "not sure" at this point.
- Romney's "favourables" with moderates are strongly negative (31/54) by 24 points. Even among "very conservative" voters, Romney breaks negative (43/58).
- The gender gap is in full display here, with women and men each breaking by about eight points as far as Obama's job approval goes. Of course, female voters break toward approval.
- In a match-up with Romney, we see a familiar sight. Women break strongly for Obama (51/42), while men largely split in Romney's favour (47/45). Republicans must do better than a split with male voters to compensate for the women they are losing in the Culture War, but this is not what's happening.
- Obama breaks even in job approval with Independent voters (47/47), with only 6% "not sure". While this is hardly stellar for the President, Romney's "favourables" are dismal with this group (29/58), and 13% of Independent voters are "not sure" about him.
- The match-up with Independent voters between Obama and Romney shows Romney beating his "favourables" with the group, but losing to Obama 48/42 (10% undecided). That means that 13% of Independents don't like Romney, but break for him against Obama - which is "soft support". Obama's break is right in line with his approval, indicating much more solid support. Considering this, the only slight drop of only 3% in undecided voters may indicate that Romney has a ceiling here with Independents.
- Romney is seen negatively by white voters (36/55), and he only breaks 52/39 in a match-up against Obama with these voters. Romney has to do much better than this with white voters, and the percentage of undecided voters is virtually unchanged in the match up compared with his "favourables". Again, there is a 16-point gap between white voters who like Romney, and those who break for him in a match-up. Soft support.
- Hispanic voters break strongly for Obama (64/26), as we've seen in all polling. Obama has 67% approval from Hispanics, which shows solid support. He has 3% of Hispanics that he can still pick up.
- Among voters over 65 in age, Romney is seen quite negatively (35/54). Compare this with Obama's negative break with this same group at 45/50. In a match-up, Obama breaks even with elderly voters 47/46. Again, Romney has 11% of these voters break for him who don't like him. Soft support.
- Young voters (18-29) break for Obama by nearly 3-1 in a match-up with Romney (64/22). Obama has 69% approval with this group, so he has a potential 5% more voters to pick up.
- No age demographic shows Romney leading by more than 5 points, and none of them show a significant difference from the overall percentage of undecided voters in that demographic. Romney's "favourables" with these age demographics are all worse than his break in the match-up, indicating soft support.
At this point, we see that Obama's supporters are solid, while Romney's are more reluctant. Yet, the right-wing narrative is that Obama's supporters won't show up to vote, while Romney's will. Those undecided in their opinion of Romney aren't breaking for him in match-ups right now, either.
While only 39% of white voters have a favourable job approval for Obama, he picks up all 39% of them in a match-up. Likewise, with female voters, Obama has 52% job approval and he picks up 51% in a match-up. With voters over 65, he has 45% job approval, and he wins 47% in a match-up. Hispanics and voters under 29 are the same. Among voters 45-65, Obama only wins 45% job approval, but he picks up 44% of them in a match-up.
