PPP: Obama improves in NV, leads by eight

Nevada is a State that Obama won 55/43 in 2008 against McCain. It was "icing on the cake" as far as electoral votes (EV) went, with NV providing six of Obama's 365 EV. 

However, polling done by PPP in 2011 showed Obama's "favourables" down and "underwater" in NV. He was only tying Romney 46/46 in 10/11. In fact, PPP noted:

“There aren’t many states Barack Obama won in 2008 where he has fallen as far as Nevada,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “What was an easy win last time looks like it will be a very tough hold in 2012.”

Not even six months later, the situation has dramatically changed. PPP's latest poll of NV (553 RV, ±4.2% MoE, 3/29 - 4/1) shows Obama prevailing in a match-up with Romney 51/43. 

October 2011 Nevada Results:

April 2012 Nevada Results:

PPP sums up this survey in a more optimistic tone:

Nevada, more than any other state, symbolizes how much the Presidential race has changed over the last six months.

In October Barack Obama was unpopular there, with a 44/53 approval rating. That was the story in our Nevada polling through most of last year. In July Obama was at 47/50 and in April he was at 45/52.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, polled much better with voters in Nevada than he did in most of the rest of the country. His favorability on our last poll there was narrowly positive at 45/44, and he managed to tie Obama at 46% in a state where the President won by 12 points in 2008. PPP's other polls in the state in 2011 showed a similarly close Obama/Romney race- a 1 point lead for Obama in July, a 3 point lead for Romney in April, and a 1 point lead for Obama in January.

That's not the case anymore. Over the last 5 months Obama's approval numbers have recovered, Romney's favorability numbers have taken a strong turn in the wrong direction, and Obama's opened up an 8 point lead in the state at 51-43.

 Obama now shows a 50/46 job approval in NV. Romney is currently polling as well as McCain, who lost. Nevada already held their Republican caucus on 2/4, and Romney won. This did not result in Republicans "rallying" to Romney, nor did the campaign sway voters outside of the base. In fact, the opposite happened. Oddly, this same scenario, which did not materialise in NV, is what Republicans are counting on to happen nationally to turn things around for their nominee. PPP notes:

Romney's net favorability meanwhile has dropped by 14 points to -13 with 38% of voters seeing him positively to 51% with a negative opinion. Part of his strength in Nevada had been an unusual number of Democrats seeing him favorably, but that crossover appeal has dropped from 27% to 18%. With independents his favorability is 36/54.

 The Right's latest head-spinning narrative is that all of this will change after the RNC. Republicans will "rally" to Romney, and I would assume that this narrative sees Independent voters as eager to jump on the bandwagon at that point. Romney will, according to this narrative, take more moderate positions to broaden his base of support. The base will nod knowingly as Romney winks to them, as they 'know' that he believes none of it. And, of course, there will be massive ad campaigns telling voters that Obama is dangerous, too powerful, and not powerful enough. In spite of these ads simply repeating the same things that the GOP has been saying for years, this time it will change everyone's mind. Democrats will be overwhelmed by this onslaught, will sulk, and will decide not to vote. Romney wins, and the evil "libs" are defeated. If this sounds delusional, it is. 

The strongest selling point of this narrative is that it buys the GOP another five months until they have to seriously evaluate things. Until 8/27, at least, no one can disprove this narrative. And this supposed "rallying" could take a month to 'solidify', so now we are up to late September.

Let's look at the results of the 4/12 PPP NV survey.  The sample is 42% conservative and 71% white.

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 10%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 17%
Moderate......................................................... 30%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 26%
Very conservative ........................................... 16%

Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 15%
White .............................................................. 71%
African-American ............................................ 8%
Other............................................................... 6%

 These are the highlights:

• Among moderates (30% of the sample), Obama's job approvals are strongly positive (63/32) with 5% unsure. Romney breaks negatively (32/56) among this same group. Outside of the Republican base, Obama is seen pretty favourably.
• Among voters who describe themselves as "very conservative" Romney has positive "favourables" (55/35). This is probably the floor for Romney, and it's not strong.
• Romney, among all registered voters, breaks negatively 38/51 with 10% unsure. As the campaign progresses, both candidates will see temporary dips in popularity as well as sudden rises. By starting with such high disapprovals, Romney can't afford the dips in his "favourables".
• Ron Paul is seen about as favourably (35/53) as Romney is, which is not a good position to be in. He's negative with moderates (50/36), and barely popular with "very conservative" voters (51/39).
• In the match-up with Romney, voters who describe themselves as "moderate" break strongly for Obama (67/29). Obama even picks up 21% of voters who describe themselves as "somewhat conservative". This leaves only 4% of "soft support" with moderates: 67% vote for you, 63% approve of you.
• There isn't really a "gender gap" in these numbers. A slim majority of both men (51/41) and women (51/44) break for Obama in a match-up with Romney. The "favourables" for Obama with men (52/46) and women (48/45) don't leave more than 2% "soft support" compared with the match-up.
• Romney is seen a bit less favourably by men (36/56) than women (40/47). There aren't enough "undecided" voters to sway for Romney to get him in positive territory with a single gender.
• Independent voters see Obama positively (50/46), and they break for him more strongly than that (54/39). There's still 4% "soft support", but Romney's in no position to take advantage of it by breaking negatively (36/54) in approval with Independent voters.
• Republicans break for Romney 78/12, with 10% undecided. Republicans are 39% of the polling sample. That means if Romney won every single Republican in a "rally", it would only gain him 8.6% of the general electorate, assuming 100% voter turnout. The best that Romney can hope for is a "toss-up" here, and he really needs the EV. Obama can spare them.
• Hispanics see Obama favourably (65/32), and favour him in a match-up with Romney (69/30). Only 1% are undecided, which doesn't leave a lot of room for Romney work with.
• If you think that Obama's job approval (50/42) is bad, how good is Romney breaking 50/42 with white voters in a match-up against Obama? This is the core demographic for Republican candidates, and he's not even winning a majority. With 8% undecided, the best that Romney can get is 6% of the general electorate - not enough to win.
• Obama is viewed negatively by voters over 65 (45/52), but this is another core demographic for Republicans where they barely show a majority. The match-up is almost identical (51/45), with Romney six points ahead. Romney is also seen negatively by this demographic (44/49), so it would seem that his support is not quite enthusiastic.
• Voters aged 18-29 see Romney somewhat positively (44/41), though they end up strongly breaking for Obama 62/35 in a match-up. Obama's approval of 59/32 with the youth vote aligns pretty closely with the match-up results. Only 3% are undecided in the match-up at this point. 

 Nevada's 6 EV have not been counted as part of Obama's solid core of 232 EV previously. If Obama only needs 38 EV above that, VA (13) and NV would be a great start. With both of the States favouring Obama by eight, that brings the target down to 19 EV. That means that Obama gets over 270 EV if he wins just one single State on this list: OH, PA, FL. He's (at least) narrowly leading in all of them, and some by as strong a margin as we see here. Just one is all he would need, and it wouldn't matter then if he lost CO (9), NH (4), NC (15), IA (7), AZ (10) or MO (11). Or, Obama could lose all three of the OH, PA, FL trio if he would win NC and CO. There are several possible paths to 270, and many fronts for Romney to defend.

Once more polling becomes available on CO, NH, MO and IA things will get considerably clearer. But, when you have "red" States like MO and AZ polling as a toss-up, it doesn't make a case for positive momentum.

Gallup: Obama leads nationally by 4

Gallup has been the most pessimistic pollster for Obama this election cycle, with Rasmussen now relegated to the role of noise-maker. Gallup doesn't do a "daily tracker" of election match-ups, just daily Presidential approval. So, when Gallup does a national match-up, it's worth looking at. And, when Gallup shows Obama leading, it means something. At the very least, it should mean something to right-wing pundits who have placed such emphasis on Gallup's results.

Gallup's latest national poll (901 RV, ±4% MoE, 3/25 - 3-26) shows Obama leading Romney 49/45. They also surveyed twelve swing states, which I will examine after looking at the national poll. We see that Romney is at his lowest percentage in the match-up since 8/11, in spite of a national primary campaign that has given him dramatic media exposure, and Super PAC-funded ad campaigns in many states.

Obama leads both Romney and Santorum among independent voters, faring slightly better against Santorum than he does against Romney. Romney and Santorum currently fare about equally well among Republican voters.

 In fact, Independent voters are breaking 48/40 in Obama's favour in this poll.

And, let's look at today's daily job approval figures from Gallup:

GALLUP DAILY

Mar 30-Apr 1, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval

47%  +1

Obama Disapproval

44%  -1

Once again, the President is on positive ground in job approval nationally. 

I've written about Romney's "soft support" previously. The numbers of those who say they would vote for him in a match-up are higher (by double digits) than those who say that they have a favourable opinion of him. Most worrisome, perhaps, is this gap among men, voters over the age of 65, and white voters. These are usually core demographics for the GOP, but Romney's numbers do not show strong support from those who are willing to vote for him. Usually, this means lower enthusiasm for a candidate with "soft support".

Unsurprisingly, Gallup finds that Romney's supporters are losing enthusiasm:

Forty-two percent of registered voters nationwide say they are "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" about voting for president in this year's election. That is down significantly from 52% in January and 47% and 48% in December and October, respectively.

The decline is especially apparent among Romney voters, whose enthusiasm has fallen 13 percentage points from January, and now is on par with Obama voters' enthusiasm. Prior to the latest poll, at least half of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting, and their enthusiasm exceeded that of Obama voters.

 Okay, so even the people who say they will vote for Romney in November are less enthusiastic, and there are fewer of them than before. Gallup finds that Democratic enthusiasm has dropped seven points over the same period, but Obama's match-up numbers have gone up in response.

Now let's look at the match-ups in the twelve swing states. Gallup polled (933 RV, ±4% MoE, 3/20 - 3/26) CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA, and WI as a composite.

Obama has a 51% to 42% lead over Romney in USA Today/Gallup polling of registered voters in 12 key swing states, conducted March 20-26. This is the first time in five measurements that Obama has held an advantage over Romney in those states.

That's a nine-point lead, with only 7% undecided. These results from the swing states are even more impressive than the national polling results, because the strong majority of states are already solidly on one side or the other. The margins of victory in those solid states is meaningless to the electoral vote (EV) count, but the 12 states that Gallup polled are still "in play". Some are more "in play" than others, however. WI and MI, for example, have been found solidly for Obama already by other pollsters, Still, these twelve states are the ones that will basically decide the election. Together, they total 139 EV out of 270 needed to win. Polling has shown Obama to be competitive in all of them, when examined individually. He has shown leads in most of them in surveys by various pollsters.

And now Gallup, the pollster that Beltway pundits and Republican strategists have been clinging to for several months, is saying that Romney is currently losing those twelve states. 

Conventional wisdom says that Obama can't win with his current low job approval numbers. For example, Ann Selzer wrote:

No president has been re-elected with a national approval rating under 49 percent, according to Gallup polling dating to 1964. It’s a watershed mark, and about 8½ months from the election, Gallup national polling Saturday had Obama at 46 percent — underwater.

Selzer, of course, did not take into account that Romney's "favourables" are much lower than Obama's. Nor did she consider that Romney's "favourables" are on the decline, while Obama's are on the rise. Gallup, in fact, says:

The momentum in the 2012 U.S. presidential election appears to be going in Obama's favor; he now enjoys his best positioning against likely Republican nominee Romney nationally and in key swing states to this point in the campaign. Obama's improved standing may result from Americans' improving confidence in the economy and satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States.

So far in March, Obama has been above water (approval higher than disapproval) more than he has been underwater. In the period that this survey was conducted, Obama had job approvals of 47% and 48%, while he wins 49% in the match-up with Romney. That leaves a negligible amount of "soft support" for the President.

Certainly, things can change. But I am at a loss to see how Romney's position will improve significantly after he wins the nomination. The Republican base may "rally to him", but he's already got 84% of Republicans breaking for him in this poll.  Even if he wins the remaining 16% of Republicans, that's only about 5% of the general electorate. And Romney's losing Independents by eight points. Why should Independent voters "rally" to Romney once he is nominated? They aren't Republicans. And, whatever it would take to win that remaining 16% of Republicans is almost certain to alienate Independent voters. The Super PACs can run ads, but everything that they are going to repeat ad nauseum has already been said before, and it hasn't made a difference. 

This is the same stupid assumption that McCain made in 2008. If only the Republicans scream that Obama is a terrorist Muslim radical who will take away your guns...blah, blah, blah... then the voters will side with McCain. We saw how that worked. You can say the words "failed President" all that you want, but people have already heard that, and they are still breaking for Obama. The "magic words" that Republicans are relying on just don't work on people outside of the Republican base.

PPP: "Obama up in NC", leads by 3

I'm having to catch up with PPP's latest poll on NC (804 RV, ±3.5% MoE, 3/8 - 3/11), which places Obama three points ahead of Romney in a match-up. 

PPP's Tom Jensen writes:

Whoever the Republican nominee is Barack Obama has an advantage over him right now. Obama leads Romney by 3 points, 49-46. That's up from a 1 point lead a month ago. And Obama's ahead of Santorum by 5 points, 49-44. That's up from a 2 point lead in February. Obama's up 48-41 on Ron Paul and 51-42 on Newt Gingrich.

Obama's breaking even on his approval numbers in the state with 49% giving him good marks and 49% poor ones. This is the first time since last June Obama hasn't been under water in North Carolina. Obama hit a low water mark in September 43/53. He's seen modest improvement with Democrats and Republicans since then, but the really big shift is with independents. He's gone from 31/62 with them to 46/51- they're still not fond of him but he's coming a lot closer to breaking even now than he did six months ago. 

Part of Obama's good numbers in North Carolina are a function of his own improved popularity, but he's also benefiting from the poor image of his opponents. As we're finding in most swing states Mitt Romney is very unpopular with only 31% of voters seeing him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. Rick Santorum doesn't do much better- his favorability spread is 36/52.

As much as the Republican base screeches about the unpopular President, it's clear in poll after poll that their front-runner is even more unpopular. 

Let's look at the ideological breakdown of this poll's sample:

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 25%
Very conservative ........................................... 20%

Using simple arithmetic, we can see that self-described conservatives are 45% of the sample, and only 27% are liberal. Of course, this has not prevented partisan wingnuts from dismissing this poll as biased toward "the Far Left". With the largest group describing themselves as "moderates", I guess the new definition of "Far Left" is "moderate". Because, in the mind of a wingnut, any poll showing Republicans losing is "biased". 

 

As we see above, the race in 2008 was very close for NC. Let's look at PPP's Dustin Ingalls' response to a critic for an explanation of what, exactly, has changed in NC since 2008 (emphasis added):

Mark: You obviously don't know anything about NC, which is one of the fastest-growing states in the country, and has been for 20 years. Some estimate that a third of the state's population did not live here four years ago. Most of the voters who move here are more liberal than the natives and more educated. We asked in a poll one month last year when respondents first lived in NC, and those who moved here or were born 20 years ago or after were going for Obama by 20 points over Romney. (Tom Jensen and I are among this group.) That was a huge chunk of the electorate, and this was when Obama was in worse shape than he is now.

So Obama's decline with independents and and moderate/conservative Dems is buffered by the sheer demographic shifts taking place in this state, plus his continuing popularity with black and Hispanic voters (and growing popularity with the latter because of Republican rhetoric on immigration). That's why you see him holding his ground or even improving in other growing, diverse states like VA, CO, NM, and AZ relative to states which are declining in population and which are older and whiter, like OH, PA, NH, and most of the Midwest.

I recall, during the 2008 election, dealing with conservatives fixated on the results of 2004 (and even 2000) in states to "prove" that Obama couldn't win. In the response above, "Mark" claims that, since Obama is now 'known', he cannot win over any Republican. Sadly, this is a pretty standard level of 'analysis' from conservatives. Voter demographics change, and time is not on the side of the GOP. By tying themselves to a 1950's-style morality and mindset, dismissing virtually all Hispanics as "illegals", and virtually all African-American votes as "fraudulent", the Republicans have locked themselves into an older, whiter voting base. And they aren't even strongly carrying that older and whiter demographic. 

Let's look at the highlights of this poll: 

• In job approval, Obama wins moderates by more than 2-to-1 (67/30). Romney's "favourables" with moderates are reversed (24/65). Yet, per the wingnut narrative, Obama is on the "Far Left". 
• In a a match-up with Romney, Obama carries moderates by more than 2-to-1 (64/28).
• Obama's job approval numbers show a strong gender gap. Women view him more favourably (55/42), while males are the opposite (41/56). Males are turning out to be a crucial demographic in the Republican base in this election.
• Romney's "favourables", however, are lousy for both genders. Women break a negative 28/57, while men break a negative 34/55. This means that Romney is viewed less favourably by men than Obama is.
• When matched up with Romney, these male favourables go out the window. Women break in Obama's favour 55/39, which is in line with their approvals. Men break in Romney's favour 54/42, although only 34% of men have a favourable opinion of Romney. This is classic "soft support", with males breaking along the lines of their approval of the incumbent, rather than the alternative. 
• Obama's job approval with Independents (as mentioned by Jensen) are negative (46/51), but their  view of Romney is even worse (36/53). 
• Independents, however, break for Romney is a match-up (44/49). That leaves 8% of Independents breaking for a candidate (Romney) that they don't view favourably. Again, soft support.
• Romney wins white voters 57/37, but Republicans will have to do better than 57% of this crucial demographic in order to win.
• Obama wins a majority of voters 45 or younger when matched up with Romney. Romney, however, only breaks even with voters over 45. 

In summary, we see that the conservative base (despite being 45% of the sample) is isolated in public opinion. There is a strong breaking point between moderates (and liberals, of course) and those who consider themselves to be more conservative. Romney (and the other candidates) simply fail to appeal beyond the conservative base in significant percentages. 

We also see soft support for Romney among males and Independent voters. Voting demographics with soft support usually do not donate money or volunteer for a campaign, and they do not "talk up" a candidate to to others in their peer group. Rather than swinging to the other side, they tend to sit out elections if their opinion of their candidate sours further - or if their view of the opponent becomes more favourable. Undecided voters in demographics showing soft support are also much less likely to show up at the polls.

Older voters are also unreliable for Romney. He's underwater with voters 45 or older by more than 20 points, and only breaking even in a match-up. 14% of his match-up support among voters 65+ doesn't view him favourably. This hardly seems like a solid base to build a culture war upon.

North Carolina is a crucial State for the Republican path to 270 electoral votes (EV), which is what it takes to win the Presidency. Without NC and its 15 EV, the GOP has to win every toss-up State. Even then, it's a dicey proposition to get to 270 EV. For Obama, winning NC opens up several possibilities to reach 270 EV. 

If CO and VA go to Obama, the addition of NC would allow him to lose FL, PA, OH, NH, and all of the Republican-leaning toss-up States - while still winning re-election. 

With PA currently polling Obama ahead, PA + NC would allow Obama to lose CO, IA, FL, OH, NH and all of the Republican-leaning toss-ups - and still reach 270 EV. 

So the Republican effort to win the White House pretty much hangs on which way NC goes, and Republican partisans are reduced to crowing over a possible tie within the margin of error (MoE), or dismissing the polling completely as 'biased'. I fail to see how having an election depend on a virtual coin toss in NC is a positive thing for the GOP, but that seems to be their current optimistic scenario. 

Also, having Obama showing positive momentum in NC with Independents is hardly a good omen for Republicans. Voters are unlikely to be convinced that Obama is scary at this point. The key is for Romney to be seen more favourably, but the extended primary is making that less and less likely by the day. With the rabid Republican base pushing Romney further and further toward the Right, these numbers we are seeing now could easily become the Republican high-water mark in NC for 2012.

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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections: 
 

PPP: "Obama Leading Republicans Big in Michigan"

Conservatives can't seem to help themselves when it comes to misinterpreting polling results. It's far too common for them to point to primary polling as an indication of a general election outcome.

In spite of the recent 'excitement' over Santorum's rise in the primary polling for Michigan, Public Policy Polling just released new survey results that show Obama winning the State handily. (560 RV, +/- 4.14% MoE, 2/10-2/12)

                   

President Obama leads all Republican challengers in Michigan by double digits, while Republicans are suffering from high unfavorability ratings among voters. Obama leads Mitt Romney by 16 points (54-38), leads Newt Gingrich by 22 points (56-34), leads Rick Santorum by 11 points (50-39) and leads Ron Paul by 18 points (52-34). Last July, we found that Obama led Romney by just 5 points (47-42).

Obama’s job approval rating in Michigan stands at 52% approval and 44% disapproval, an improvement from last July when Obama was at 50/46. 53% of voters say that Barack Obama’s leadership has been “good for Michigan’s economy” while 41% think it’s been
bad.

Republican presidential candidates are suffering from horrific favorability ratings in Michigan – less than one-third of voters have favorable opinions of Mitt Romney (29/58), Newt Gingrich (21/66) or Ron Paul (31/54). Only Rick Santorum is liked by more than one-third of voters and disliked by less than half of voters (40/47).

While the Republican narrative is that Obama is some kind of hated figure, and "anybody" could beat him, we see that he is much more liked than any of the Republican candidates.

If the most liked Republican (Santorum) only has 40% of Michigan registered voters indicating a favourable opinion of him, what does that say about the "hated" Obama showing 52% approval? Doesn't it mean that Republicans are more "hated" than Obama? How does this support the idea that the electorate would vote for "anybody but Obama"? More importantly, how does this support the idea that voters won't turn out for the more popular Obama, but they will show up to vote for the less popular Republican?

Previously, I did a preliminary assessment of the likely electoral vote totals from States that Obama led in polling. Michigan has 17 EV, and they look even more likely to go to Obama than they did when that post was written. Obama has more than doubled his lead over the past seven months in the State. 

This poll also undermines the Republican narrative that a bad economy will hurt Obama. We have a bad economy right now, and Obama is running away with a State that was hard hit in the downturn. A slight majority of registered voters are even saying that Obama has been “good for Michigan’s economy”. Isn't it weird how the number of those disapproving of Obama's impact on the Michigan economy seems to be right around the number of those voting for and (approving of) Republican candidates? 

It also seems to dovetail with Rasmussen's perpetual 40% that "Strongly Disapprove" of Obama.

You could look at these numbers and say that Obama has a solid 40% of Michigan voters firmly against him. 

I'd concede that readily. But that number has not grown over the past seven months, while the number supporting Obama against Romney has grown... by 7 points. Obama is even over the putatively magical 50% mark when matched up with Romney in Michigan. 

Seven months ago, conservatives were pointing to the President's 5-point lead in Michigan and saying that it was within the MoE, and that it would come down as the general electorate saw more of Romney in the primary campaigns. Well, the race is no longer within the MoE, and those numbers for Romney have slightly declined, while Obama's have gone up. Are we surprised that conservatives are wrong? They are living in a bubble world in which it is still 2010. 

Let's examine the cross-tabs in this survey:

• Santorum, the 'most popular' Republican candidate, only gets a 67% favourable opinion among those who voted for McCain in 2008. That's the Republican base, folks. 
• In a match-up with Obama, Santorum only draws 78% of McCain voters, while Obama draws 82% of those who voted for him in 2008. And Santorum is the one who does the best in this metric.
• Moderates break more than 3-1 against Romney, and 60/21 against Santorum. There's that "extreme" agenda showing up again. 
• Santorum breaks positively 17 / 68 / 15 against Obama among those who self-identify as "somewhat conservative", and Santorum does the best of all the Republicans in this metric as well. Only 68% of a crucial Republican base demographic that is 21% of the electorate? Does that sound like enthusiasm?
• Obama wins women voters by a full 30% over Romney (61/31), while Santorum "only" loses women voters by 25 points. Romney breaks even with men, while Santorum carries them by a mere 5%. With males turning out to be a crucial base demographic for Republicans, this breakdown is not encouraging.
• Romney breaks strongly negative in favourable opinion with Independents (32/52), while Santorum breaks even (43/44). In match-ups with Obama, however, Obama wins Independents by 12 over Romney and six over Santorum. Favourable opinions do not seem to have a strong bearing on the match-up results here.
• Obama wins white voters by 7 points over Romney (wow!) in a match-up, while whites essentially break even with Santorum (45/43, O+2). That's another crucial Republican base demographic.
• In favourable opinion, Romney loses voters aged 65+ by 23 points (34/57), with Santorum settling for an even break at 44/42. Match-ups are different once again, though. Voters aged 65+ go for Obama over Romney by 7 points, with Santorum narrowly losing them by 4. Another crucial Republican demographic fails to line up with the Party.
• Obama strongly prevails in match-ups with the 18-29 age demographic. He beats both Santorum and Romney by at least 2-1. Romney loses these voters 66/26, and Santorum loses them 60/30. Ron Paul, with his much flaunted "youth vote appeal" loses this age group 62/26 over Obama.

 With Republican candidates showing relatively poorly with their own base in these match-ups, it really shows the inherent weakness in trying to run a scare campaign against Obama. We've already had at least four years (including the 2008 campaign) of virtually non-stop fear-mongering by the Right against the President. How will more of the same turn the tide? Republicans have a solid base of 40% right now, and they can't win with that. Making that solid 40% even more solid isn't going to do them any good. 

At least in Michigan, it seems clear that Obama isn't despised, he isn't scary, and he isn't a "failed President". These are the points most likely to be hammered on in the Republican primary, and they seem to only resonate with that 40% Republican base.

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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:


  
 

Ras Trax 2/14, PPP national

Today's journey into the world of Rasmussen brings us the hint of old Scotty's "things changed" narrative. He seems to be insinuating that Romney's negative campaigning in FL is the "event" that "changed" the race. In Rasmussen's (fixed and bogus) polling, Romney was tied before FL. Now he is seven points down on Obama. Santorum, in yet another dizzying shift, is down nine in a match-up with Obama. Weird how Santorum was a point ahead of the President (in Rasmussen's fixed figures) when it was convenient to boost Santorum's "electability" narrative. It's also strange how Romney showed a six-point lead in December (in Rasmussen's fixed figures), but now is behind by seven in the same match-up against the President.

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 49% to 42% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  The numbers are very similar if former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee. In that case, the president leads 49% to 41%. Among unaffiliated voters, the president leads Romney by 10 and Santorum by 16.

One week before the Florida primary, Romney and Obama were tied. In the week leading up to that event, Romney fell behind by margins ranging from two to six points. The GOP hopeful has fallen further behind since that time. Over the past week, he has trailed the president by margins ranging from four to ten points (see tracking history for all candidates).

Overall, 51% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) at least somewhat disapprove. 

Also, Obama is back above 50% in approval, which is also strange. Rasmussen just told us that 50% of likely voters were pissed off at Obama over the Catholic / birth control issue.

Gallup just released a poll that says even Catholics themselves aren't that upset about the issue: 

              

PRINCETON, NJ -- Catholics' views of President Obama were little changed during a week in which the administration battled publicly with Catholic leaders over whether church-affiliated employers should have to pay for contraception as part of their employees' health plans. An average of 46% of Catholics approved of the job Obama was doing as president last week, compared with 49% the prior week, a change within the margin of sampling error.

And the latest CBS/NYT poll fails to back up old Scotty Rasmussen:

                          

The number is similar among self-professed Catholics surveyed: 61 percent said they support the Obama administration's rule, while 32 percent oppose it.

Sounds like a losing issue for Republicans. PPP also polled the issue, and didn't find Rasmussen's 50% opposed. Oh, yeah: "likely voters". Sure. 

Also in polling, PPP released their new national survey. (1200 RV, 2/9-2/12, MoE +/- 2.8%)

Romney trails 49-42, down two points from 49-44 last month. Santorum has improved three points on the margin from a 50-42 deficit to only 49-44 now. President Obama has inched up three points versus Ron Paul (from 47-42 to 49-41), and five over Newt Gingrich (from 49-42 to 52-40). Obama leads Paul by one, Santorum by four, Romney by nine, and Gingrich by 19 points with independents. Santorum is the strongest of the Republicans with the GOP, but still loses 12% of them to Obama, while Obama cedes only 8-11% of his party versus any opponent.

Q13 Do you think the economy is improving, getting
worse, or staying about the same?
Improving........................................................ 41%
Getting worse.................................................. 31%
Staying about the same .................................. 27%
Not sure .......................................................... 1%

•  In a match-up with Obama, Santorum loses females 53/40 and breaks even with men 46/48. Romney is pretty much the same, but Obama edges out men 46/43 in that case.
• Gender seems to make no difference on the question about the economy improving.
• Ron Paul wins the white vote 48/40/12 in a match-up with Obama. Romney wins them 50/41/9. Santorum does best with whites: 52/41/ 7. That's getting into interesting territory with Santorum. If he pulls half of the undecided whites, he moves up to nearly 55%. This is what McCain got, but it's still higher than I would like to see.
• Paul loses the 18-29 demographic to Obama 56/35/10. Even if he wins all of the undecideds, he loses that age group. So much for the Paul "youth vote" narrative. Romney does even worse with the demographic: 59/29/13. And Santorum is dismal at 63/29/8.
• In a match-up with Obama, Santorum wins the 65+ age demographic by eight: 42/50/8. Romney does a bit worse at 43/46/11.

We can only wonder if Santorum's numbers will go down as voters become more familiar with him. 

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Ras Trax 2/13, Pew sees Romney drop

Eight point leads nationally for Obama over both Santorum and Romney in today's Rasmussen daily tracking poll. This poll period is outside of the caucus wins that Santorum had 2/7. It's somewhat humorous that Rasmussen points out the flakiness of his polling by referring to his previous ridiculous leads over Obama by other "flare candidates". Are we really supposed to believe that Santorum dropped nine points over four days in national match-ups? That Santorum lead was another of Rasmussen's phony build-ups of Romney alternatives to make them seem far more electable in a general election than they really are.

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 48% to 42% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum trails the president by eight, 49% to 41%. 

This is the first time since February 3, shortly after the Florida primary, that Romney has been closer to the president than Santorum (see tracking history). In polling conducted February 2-3, Santorum had a one-point advantage over the president. However, he quickly fell back and has now joined Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich who led the president once in a single poll but could not sustain it.

So now Romney and Santorum are both behind by 8, with a statistically-meaningless single point difference in the numbers. And Rasmussen continues to be the joke of the polling world.

Pew released a new poll today, showing bad news for the Republicans in the Presidential race. While the main focus is on Santorum's rise against Romney, Pew also shows an eight-point lead for Obama:

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Feb. 8-12 among 1,501 adults, including 1172 registered voters and 552 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, finds that Barack Obama holds sizable leads over Santorum, Romney and Newt Gingrich in general election match-ups. Obama leads Santorum by 10 points among all registered voters (53% to 43%) and his lead over Romney is nearly as large (52% to 44%). Romney ran about even with Obama in November and mid-January.

                                       

Quite a trend there for Obama against Romney. And the new-found enthusiasm from the Republican base over Rick Santorum isn't helping him in the general election match-ups. Maybe that's because what sells big in the Republican bubble really isn't that appealing outside of the bubble. If Rasmussen is correct in his numbers (big "if"), then 35% of the electorate is Republican - and likely voters are even higher than that. Best case is that Santorum is pulling only 8% of the voters that do not already self-identify as Republicans. And Romney's only pulling 9% outside of the base - unless that 4% who "Don't Know" are all Republicans. 

So, how is Romney doing with Independent voters?

                                

                        

Romney has turned a 12-point lead with Independents into an 8-point deficit, in one quarter. And now we are going to see social conservative issues dominate the Republican primary campaign, which always turn off Independents. Both Santorum and Romney have been harsh, strident, and unequivocal in their constant denunciations of Obama - and Obama has been improving his standing.

The Republican delusion is that, once the RNC is over, the Republicans will join as one and denounce Obama with even scarier, crazier, and more vicious attacks than ever. 

And, naturally, since the nation takes the opinion of the Republican Party very seriously, the voters all gasp in horror that they ever could have considered voting for someone the Republicans hate that much. Obama loses. 

The bottom line is that everyone has heard this crap before. If you didn't believe it before, you won't believe it now. Judging by Pew's polling results, these attacks currently are believed by ...44% of the country. And that number seems to be declining. 

Maybe it's because the socialist Muslim hell that the Republicans all swore would happen, really didn't. Everything isn't nationalized, there are no FEMA "death camps", nobody is rounding up gun owners or taking their guns away, there is no hyper-inflation caused by Stimulus spending, there is no tyrannical government regulating every aspect of your life, and people aren't being forced into "collectives". Obama hasn't turned out to be dictator. 

So we've heard all of that scary crap before. The conservatives, the Tea Party, the entire wingnut radio industry, and the Republican elected officials all were completely wrong. No Apocalypse. No dictatorship. At no point did these things even threaten to be concerns, much less accurately depict the current reality. 

And Republicans are just going to recycle this same crap? "We were pretty off-base before on our scary predictions, but this time we're sure.!" Really? And this strategy has brought Obama to an 8-point lead over the Republicans, but it's gonna start working real good any day now, right? Money doesn't help when your message is the same narrative that has already been rejected.

Rasmussen shifts, Republicans now "extreme"

Rasmussen's daily tracking is now showing Obama with a seven-point lead over both Romney and Santorum nationally. Again, these tracking polls are mostly worthless and serve to highlight the weaknesses in Rasmussen's methodology. Also, since Rasmussen is the preferred pollster of the Right, his results carry weight with movement conservatives. The "reality-based community" is sceptical, especially after his biased 2010 polling. That said, here are the results (edited for relevance):

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 48% to 41% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney .
Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum trails the president by the same margin, 48% to 41%.
Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance.  Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove.

 Obama is still breaking even on approval, and even edging into positive territory on some days. The "Strong Disapproval" is edging back up, though down from the routine 42%+ we saw in December of last year. Its rise is probably more of an indication that Rasmussen's likely voter screen is more favourable to movement conservatives. Or, if we are to believe Rasmussen, more people hate Obama and those people are also more willing to vote for him than they were before (when they didn't hate him). 

It also means that 8% of the "likely voters" disapprove of Obama (49 minus 41 voting for the Republican), but choose to vote for him over Romney or Santorum. And this is supposed to prove that "anybody but Obama" can win a general election?

Another interesting Rasmussen result was this poll. Since Rasmussen is taken seriously by the Tea Party, conservatives, right-wing punditry, and Republican insiders, these results should make them stop and think. 

The question is this:

4* Would it be more accurate to describe the agenda of Republicans in Congress as mainstream or extreme?

And 52% (of likely voters, mind you) said that Republican agenda, which is essentially the agenda of the Tea Party, is extreme.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 35% of Likely Voters say it would be more accurate to describe the agenda of Republicans in Congress as mainstream, while 52% feel extreme is a more accurate description.  Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on February 8-9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

The Tea Party narrative has always been that they represent "The People", the majority, "Real" America. 

This poll shows that they are the minority. The electorate has clearly heard the message of the Tea Party and the Republicans, and they have rejected it. 35% believing in the Republican agenda is pretty close to the number that self-identify as Republicans. Rasmussen says 34.7% of the country self-identifies as Republican. Outside of the Republican base, their ideas and their theatrics aren't well-received at all. 

We've had a Tea Party-aligned House for well over a year now, and the "message" of the Tea Party has been trumpeted across the land for at least two years now. That message isn't fundamentally different from the one used against Obama in the 2008 election: redistribution of wealth, "socialism", "job creators", etc. So, really, that's about four years of exposure to the Republican "message". It isn't some "untested narrative" that might catch on with more exposure. Right now, we have a Republican primary campaign that is pushing the core values of that agenda into the spotlight on a daily basis. It's not as if the Republican narrative is a secret or unfamiliar.

Republicans fundamentally misread the results of the 2010 election. It was not an overwhelming endorsement of Tea Party ideology. It was about an alternative offered to Independent voters, who cared about jobs - not "socialism". The Republicans virtually promised that, if they were put in charge, the economy would turn around. Instead, we got the de-funding of NPR, crazy conspiracies and rants, petty obstructionism, and criticism of the President. The result is that Independents swung back to where they largely were before 2010. Those Independents are what produced the "Tea Party wave", not the reliably-Republican Tea Party voters. And those Independents overlooked your crazy stuff, not endorsed it. In the big picture, Independents pretty much break even on voting for Obama. 

But Independents really don't like social issues, and it appears that we are moving into a new phase of the Republican primaries where the Right's positions on social issues are going to be highlighted. Santorum is all about the social issues. Romney has turned into some kind of crusader against the oppression of Catholics, over contraception. Is birth-control really the hill that Republicans want to die on? It's stuff like this that reminds Independents that there's a whole lotta crazy back there behind the tax cuts and "jobs", and it's a package deal. 

On this "religious freedom" issue and its perils for Obama, a very recent PPP survey is relevant. 

Tom Jensen's post (2/10) on the poll results is very interesting: 

-Only 39% of voters support an exemption for Catholic hospitals and universities from providing the benefit, while 57% are opposed to one.

-There is a major disconnect between the leadership of the Catholic Church and rank and file Catholic voters on this issue. We did an over sample of almost 400 Catholics and found that they support the benefit overall, 53-44, and oppose an exception for Catholic hospitals and universities, 53-45. The Bishops really are not speaking for Catholics as a whole on this issue.

-Republican agitating on this issue could cause themselves trouble at the polls this year. 40% of voters say Mitt Romney's stance makes them less likely to vote for him, while only 23% consider it a positive.  With the Catholic oversample it's 46% less likely and 28% more likely. And Congressional Republicans are imperiling themselves as well. 58% of voters oppose them trying to take the benefit away, while only 33% are supportive.

Republicans will win this fall if they can convince voters that the economy stinks and it's Barack Obama's fault and putting them in power will fix the problem. If they want to make it about social issues and making it easy and affordable for women to access birth control, Democrats win.

Tom Jensen is, of course, one of the primary minds behind Public Policy Polling.

So we can see how Rasmussen could find so many people who think the Republicans are extreme, and get them past his "likely voter" screen. These conservative social positions are death for the Republicans, as well as the Tea Party. If anything, the Tea Party and the Fundamentalist evangelicals have converged and morphed into some kind of generic Obama-hating macro, virtually indistinguishable in the minds of the public. 

The same poll shows that 56% of Independents oppose Republicans in Congress trying to take away the birth control benefit. Believe me now?

Isn't it interesting how close the percentage supporting the Republican position in the PPP survey is to the number in Rasmussen's survey of those who think the Republicans are "mainstream" in their agenda? Those numbers are also close to the percentage that Rasmussen finds "Strongly Disapprove" of Obama. 39/35/39. This is the ceiling for the Republican narrative, in practical terms. Nobody new is buying in, you can only lose people and become more "pure". Beyond that ceiling is a twilight zone of uncertainty where moderation is called for. 

Again, making red States redder is not going to win an election for Republicans. The "great minds" of the Right's narrative-cobbling industry are showing division, but all signs invariably point to the right in any consensus. Romney is falling victim to the same process that McCain was subjected to. The Party chooses a "moderate" to appeal to swing voters, and then they drag that moderate into the hard right fever swamps. But in this case, there is an extra layer of stupidity: the base rejects the "moderate", starts off to the right, and moves farther right. The base isn't co-operating with the Party's desperate scheme, and the guy who is leading is the guy without the money (Santorum). The Party has only marginal leverage, and some factions see right now as the moment to "make their move" in the pecking order. 

The evangelical faction of the Right had to drop Bachmann over the "more electable" Romney. Likewise with Perry. Then it started to look like Romney was, at best, a tie with Obama. If Romney isn't a sure bet to beat Obama, then the evangelicals are going to take their chances on Santorum. They aren't going to give up another one of "their own" for the sake of "electability". 

The Tea Party faction has shown itself to be remarkably fickle, too. They didn't support Bachmann, but instead "fell in line" over the "electability issue", though not for Romney. Now, Gingrich is going down in flames. The Tea Party has to choose between Paul and Santorum. If they go with Romney, they will lose their identity and become mere footsoldiers for the Party elite. If their candidate loses, the value of maintaining their approval drops considerably. 

The Ron Paul faction is in for a rude awakening in May and June. The State Party Conventions will be held during that time, and Paul will not get delegates from the non-binding caucuses. They did the same thing in 2008; why won't they do it again? The more that the Paul faction builds its image into that of a "menace that will not be appeased", the more determined will the Party elites become to freeze them out of the process. The Party holds all of the cards. The write the rules, they enforce the rules, and they aren't particularly obliged to even listen to anyone else. They also know, quite frankly, that the faction's only alternative is to vote for Obama anyway. So fall in line or go to over the commies, Paultard.

Ras: Santorum drops, Romney collapses

Rasmussen's daily tracking polls are generally worthless, and more of an indication of Scott Rasmussen's shifting biases and the uncertain Republican base than an accurate reflection of the electoral race. So, for entertainment purposes, I present the tracking poll for 2/10/12:

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president attracts 50% of the vote and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 40%. This is the largest lead the president has enjoyed against Romney in regular polling going back more than a year. It’s also the first time that the president has reached the 50% level of support against Romney.

Rick Santorum now trails the president by four percentage points, 46% to 42%. Rasmussen Reports will now be tracking the Obama-Santorum race on a daily basis.

Santorum, who just days ago led the President by one point in Rasmussen's polling,  now trails by four.
Romney now trails Obama by ten nationally, which would be astounding if it were supported by any other polling firm.

As I've said before, Rasmussen's sampling (and his "likely voter" screen) is heavily skewed toward Republicans. What these numbers show is what's happening in the Republican base, not in the broader electorate, because it's based on Rasmussen's belief that Democrats won't vote unless they are really unhappy with Obama. Bearing that in mind, we can see that Romney is losing the mantle of "most electable" among the base and Santorum is becoming the new favourite. Naturally, as the new favourite, he must be polling better than Romney. If not, then the Republican base would not be the dominant political force that Rasmussen believes it to be, and they definitely would not be wise and politically savvy geniuses that he "knows" they are.

Also in Rasmussen World, Obama has cracked the 50% approval barrier that is so important to people that think the nation would vote for any idiot over a President they disliked. These people are generally known as right-wing pundits and the fools who take their pronouncements as gospel.

51% now at least somewhat approve of Obama job performance, and 49% disapprove. 37% "strongly disapprove", and that number is dropping down into the range of Republican Party identification.

In Fox News polling (1110 RV including cell), Obama has a job approval of 48%, 45% disapprove, 7% undecided. While that's below the putatively magical 50% mark, it puts Obama above water into positive territory.
Obama leads Romney 47/42.
Obama leads Santorum 50/38.
Obama leads Paul 48/38.
Obama also defeats the hypothetical "white knight" candidate Jeb Bush 50/36. So much for that idea.

Another interesting bit of information comes in the question of how enthusiastic would the respondent be if a particular candidate won.

• In the "extremely enthusiastic" category, all of the Republican candidates score in the single digits with Romney leading at 9%. Obama scores 20% in this same category. 
• In the category of "Pleased" if that person won, Romney and Santorum both get 19%. This is only slightly worse than Obama's 21% pleased.
• In the category of "Scared" if that person won, Gingrich is the clear leader at 33%. Romney as President scares 20%, and Santorum 22%. Obama in a second term scares 27%. This kind of contradicts the wingnut narrative of a scary Obama losing to an imperfect, but not-scary, Republican candidate. Apparently, a 7% difference (at best) between the two options is enough to base an electoral strategy on.

So, if Obama wins we have 41% happy / 27% scared. If the Republican wins, we have 28% happy / 20% scared. That's the big divide in popular opinion that the Right hopes to capitalise on.
That 27% that is scared of Obama just happens to be identical to the "crazification factor" in the American electorate. Even during Bush's darkest hours, you could always find at least 27% of the electorate supporting him. And we are somehow supposed to let those people become the arbiters of an acceptable President.

Let's not forget the Republican primary race. 41% of likely Republican primary voters nationally think that "one or more of the Republican candidates" should drop out, and Ron Paul is the 'favourite' to be that person at 43%. Note to Ron Paul fans with poor reading skills: this means that a considerable number of Republican primary voters want Paul to drop out, not that they prefer him.

So Fox News polling isn't seeing Rasmussen's remarkable 10-point lead for Obama over Romney, nor are they seeing a close race between Obama and Santorum. Weird. It's almost as if Rasmussen is some kind of outlier pollster that nobody really takes seriously.