Gallup: Obama reaches 50% approval

A great deal of the Right's narrative (and the punditry that pushes it) is based on low job approval for Obama with the pollster Gallup. Supposedly, the President's low job approvals make the Republican nominee look more competitive, and makes Obama vulnerable to virtually charge or flimsy scandal that the GOP puts forward.

Facts never get in the way of Republican narratives, of course.

Polling has shown that Romney is viewed unfavourably outside of the Republican base, and only grudgingly accepted within that base.Even worse, his numbers are declining. Those who see Romney rebounding after the Republican National Convention (RNC) fail to realise:

• The RNC will be very divisive, following very divisive State Conventions.
• Romney will have to go on record supporting very conservative positions, and endorsing ideas that most outside of the Republican think are kind of crazy.
• All of these statements will be on record and available for campaign ads against him.
• Romney will have to back away from these statements after the nomination.

It remains to be seen how much the Republican base will "rally" to Romney. One of the consequences of the 2010 election is that every faction of the GOP, from "sovereign citizens" to Libertarians to evangelicals, saw the results as some kind of national validation of support for their faction. Each faction sees this as "their time" and "their turn". Each faction sees some mythical Heartland majority as loyal to their agenda, and each sees their faction as the only hope to defeating Obama in the general election. Each faction sees themselves as "overdue" for its reward from the Party for its decades of support. And the strict message discipline of the GOP has been fractured for years now, with no one at the wheel. The GOP has basically been throwing out conflicting narratives for years and seeing which ones "stick", while abandoning narratives that get stale or fail to resonate. No one, including the base, knows what the GOP stands for -- other than the willingness to claim anything as indisputable truth that is seen to hurt Obama. And, how enthusiastic will this base be when Romney backs off from conservative positions in the general? Will they believe him when he winks to them, or will they remember how this guy stands for nothing at all?

Meanwhile, Obama is essentially a "known quantity". Outside of the Republican base, people are not afraid of him, do not hate him, and do not want to punish him. They wish he had been more successful, and they had higher hopes for his first term. That doesn't mean that "anyone" is seen as an acceptable alternative to him.

It's now clear that there will be no magical, hugely popular, messiah from the Republican Party who can fix everything with a wave of his hand. It's going to be Romney, and Romney is a blank slate. With selective reading of his shifting positions, he can either be a guy who believes in everything that you believe in, or nothing that you believe in. And, given the electorate's disenchantment with politicians (as well as the Republican Party), guess which of those two options most will go for.

In fact, the same cynical disappointment with Obama that the GOP is depending on is also the thing that makes voters project their worst assumption upon Romney's blank slate.

Now we get to see the very same pundits, strategists, and shills (who have invoked Gallup for years) go to great lengths to ignore Gallup's results.

GALLUP DAILY

Apr 3-5, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval

50%  +1

Obama Disapproval

43%  -3

 So far, for the month of April, the President has polled at least 47% job approval nationally with Gallup.
The current figure of 50% approval is the highest all year. This is happening as the Republican primaries are testing out their attack narratives, and as the nation is supposed to be concentrating on what a 'failure' Obama is supposed to have been.

Actually, you would have to go back to late May 2011 to find a higher job approval rating, or early June 2011 to find a lower disapproval with Gallup. State polling from other pollsters has also shown Obama's "favourables" improving over that time frame. His positions in match-ups has also improved for states that are considered to be "in play".

There is a sharp drop-off in negative opinion of Obama between conservatives and moderates, and the Republican base is increasingly isolated in opinion compared with the rest of the electorate. There is almost a palpable scorn, a "you are either with or against us" attitude, coming from conservatives toward non-conservatives.

One of the consequences of so much of the Republican electoral strength being limited to solid "red" States is that these Republican voters live in a world where no one supports the President. This reinforces the mistaken idea that they are much more popular than they really are, and encourages them to dismiss those outside of the Republican base as a small minority that will be steamrollered in the general election. This fist-shaking rage, and the implied promises of "payback" for not jumping on the bandwagon, just serve to drive Independents and swing voters away from them and towards the President.

Gallup: Obama leads nationally by 4

Gallup has been the most pessimistic pollster for Obama this election cycle, with Rasmussen now relegated to the role of noise-maker. Gallup doesn't do a "daily tracker" of election match-ups, just daily Presidential approval. So, when Gallup does a national match-up, it's worth looking at. And, when Gallup shows Obama leading, it means something. At the very least, it should mean something to right-wing pundits who have placed such emphasis on Gallup's results.

Gallup's latest national poll (901 RV, ±4% MoE, 3/25 - 3-26) shows Obama leading Romney 49/45. They also surveyed twelve swing states, which I will examine after looking at the national poll. We see that Romney is at his lowest percentage in the match-up since 8/11, in spite of a national primary campaign that has given him dramatic media exposure, and Super PAC-funded ad campaigns in many states.

Obama leads both Romney and Santorum among independent voters, faring slightly better against Santorum than he does against Romney. Romney and Santorum currently fare about equally well among Republican voters.

 In fact, Independent voters are breaking 48/40 in Obama's favour in this poll.

And, let's look at today's daily job approval figures from Gallup:

GALLUP DAILY

Mar 30-Apr 1, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval

47%  +1

Obama Disapproval

44%  -1

Once again, the President is on positive ground in job approval nationally. 

I've written about Romney's "soft support" previously. The numbers of those who say they would vote for him in a match-up are higher (by double digits) than those who say that they have a favourable opinion of him. Most worrisome, perhaps, is this gap among men, voters over the age of 65, and white voters. These are usually core demographics for the GOP, but Romney's numbers do not show strong support from those who are willing to vote for him. Usually, this means lower enthusiasm for a candidate with "soft support".

Unsurprisingly, Gallup finds that Romney's supporters are losing enthusiasm:

Forty-two percent of registered voters nationwide say they are "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" about voting for president in this year's election. That is down significantly from 52% in January and 47% and 48% in December and October, respectively.

The decline is especially apparent among Romney voters, whose enthusiasm has fallen 13 percentage points from January, and now is on par with Obama voters' enthusiasm. Prior to the latest poll, at least half of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting, and their enthusiasm exceeded that of Obama voters.

 Okay, so even the people who say they will vote for Romney in November are less enthusiastic, and there are fewer of them than before. Gallup finds that Democratic enthusiasm has dropped seven points over the same period, but Obama's match-up numbers have gone up in response.

Now let's look at the match-ups in the twelve swing states. Gallup polled (933 RV, ±4% MoE, 3/20 - 3/26) CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA, and WI as a composite.

Obama has a 51% to 42% lead over Romney in USA Today/Gallup polling of registered voters in 12 key swing states, conducted March 20-26. This is the first time in five measurements that Obama has held an advantage over Romney in those states.

That's a nine-point lead, with only 7% undecided. These results from the swing states are even more impressive than the national polling results, because the strong majority of states are already solidly on one side or the other. The margins of victory in those solid states is meaningless to the electoral vote (EV) count, but the 12 states that Gallup polled are still "in play". Some are more "in play" than others, however. WI and MI, for example, have been found solidly for Obama already by other pollsters, Still, these twelve states are the ones that will basically decide the election. Together, they total 139 EV out of 270 needed to win. Polling has shown Obama to be competitive in all of them, when examined individually. He has shown leads in most of them in surveys by various pollsters.

And now Gallup, the pollster that Beltway pundits and Republican strategists have been clinging to for several months, is saying that Romney is currently losing those twelve states. 

Conventional wisdom says that Obama can't win with his current low job approval numbers. For example, Ann Selzer wrote:

No president has been re-elected with a national approval rating under 49 percent, according to Gallup polling dating to 1964. It’s a watershed mark, and about 8½ months from the election, Gallup national polling Saturday had Obama at 46 percent — underwater.

Selzer, of course, did not take into account that Romney's "favourables" are much lower than Obama's. Nor did she consider that Romney's "favourables" are on the decline, while Obama's are on the rise. Gallup, in fact, says:

The momentum in the 2012 U.S. presidential election appears to be going in Obama's favor; he now enjoys his best positioning against likely Republican nominee Romney nationally and in key swing states to this point in the campaign. Obama's improved standing may result from Americans' improving confidence in the economy and satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States.

So far in March, Obama has been above water (approval higher than disapproval) more than he has been underwater. In the period that this survey was conducted, Obama had job approvals of 47% and 48%, while he wins 49% in the match-up with Romney. That leaves a negligible amount of "soft support" for the President.

Certainly, things can change. But I am at a loss to see how Romney's position will improve significantly after he wins the nomination. The Republican base may "rally to him", but he's already got 84% of Republicans breaking for him in this poll.  Even if he wins the remaining 16% of Republicans, that's only about 5% of the general electorate. And Romney's losing Independents by eight points. Why should Independent voters "rally" to Romney once he is nominated? They aren't Republicans. And, whatever it would take to win that remaining 16% of Republicans is almost certain to alienate Independent voters. The Super PACs can run ads, but everything that they are going to repeat ad nauseum has already been said before, and it hasn't made a difference. 

This is the same stupid assumption that McCain made in 2008. If only the Republicans scream that Obama is a terrorist Muslim radical who will take away your guns...blah, blah, blah... then the voters will side with McCain. We saw how that worked. You can say the words "failed President" all that you want, but people have already heard that, and they are still breaking for Obama. The "magic words" that Republicans are relying on just don't work on people outside of the Republican base.

Is Obama too liberal? Survey says "not really"

While wingnuts have devoted years to telling everyone with ears that Obama is some kind of "Far Left" Marxist figure, it might be useful to look at actual polling to see if the general electorate agrees with them on that characterization.

PPP (1000 RV, ±3.1% MoE, 3/22 - 3/25) did just that. 

Do you think Barack Obama is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

	Too liberal	Too conservative	About right	Not sure
All	44	9	43	4
Women	42	8	46	4
Men	45	11	40	4
Democrat	15	13	71	2
Republican	77	7	12	5
Independent/Other	45	7	40	8

If you consider those who think Obama is "too conservative", a slim majority of 53% would say that Obama is not "too liberal". This holds true for both men and women. Among Independent voters, it's largely an even break of 45/47.This seems to be a Republican phenomenon.

Let's look at the racial breakdowns: 

White	49	9	37	5
African-American	18	6	72	4
Asian	40	16	35	10
Hispanic	30	12	57	1

 White voters narrowly come down on the side of "too liberal" 49/46. But, for a demographic that the GOP is relying on, those are not strong numbers. The Republican nominee has to get at least 58% of the white vote (and probably better than that) to win. McCain got 55% and lost with that. With only 49% of the white voters believing Obama is too liberal, the GOP will have to try something else to get that other 10% or so.  In fact, this same survey shows that only 51% of white voters would go with the generic Republican candidate over Obama. Consider also that Romney polls worse than the generic Republican in most surveys.

More than two-thirds of Hispanics, however, would disagree with the "too liberal" label for Obama. Only 1% are undecided about the issue, in fact. This is odd, since the GOP hopes to use social conservative issues to win over Hispanic voters.

How about the age breakdowns? Surely the elderly see Obama as a Communist radical, don't they?

18 to 29	31	19	44	6
30 to 45	46	11	38	5
46 to 65	47	6	44	3
Older than 65	44	6	45	5

Not really. A slim majority of 51% among those aged 65+ would disagree with characterising Obama as "too liberal". In fact, no age group shows a plurality disagreeing with that. 

Let's look the breakdown based on income. The wealthy must really think that Obama is a Marxist demon, right? 

Less than $30,000	46	11	36	7
$30,000 to $50,000	43	13	38	6
$50,000 to $75,000	42	9	47	3
$75,000 to $100,000	46	7	45	2
Over $100,000	36	8	52	4

 Not so much.  

60% of those with annual incomes over $100k would disagree that Obama is "too liberal". In fact, it's the people with the lowest incomes that are most likely to think of Obama as "too liberal". The plurality of everyone with an income over $30k doesn't see Obama as "too liberal".

So, it's Republicans who see Obama as "too liberal", and obviously Republicans think that everyone agrees with them. This is just more tone-deaf messaging from a Party that truly believes that the things that work on the Republican base works on the general electorate.

Quinnipiac: Obama leads by 16 in CT

Although Connecticut is a New England State, the Right read a great deal into Lieberman's election to the Senate and the 2010 elections. Some saw CT as a possible flip and a Senate pick-up. 

They, of course, were sadly mistaken. 

The new Quinnipiac poll of CT (1230 RV, ±2.4% MoE, 3/14 - 3/19) shows Obama with a strong lead and the likely Republican Senate candidate losing badly. Obama leads Romney 53/37 in a match-up, with Obama improving by 4 points since mid-September with the same pollster. On top of that, Obama has picked up five points of "favourable" opinion since mid-September, and dropped 4 points of unfavourable opinion in that same period. Romney shows negative "favourables" at 35/43, with his "unfavourable" opinion increasing by 15 points since the previous poll. 

There isn't the familiar gender gap in these numbers, either. Obama wins slim majorities of men and women in a match-up, his "favourables" are good with both genders, and Romney is viewed about as unfavourably by both genders. Obama is even picking up 19% of self-described conservatives when matched up with Romney, and he wins Independents by 11 points over Romney. 

I don't think a big Super-PAC-funded ad campaign is going to turn the tide in CT. 

McMahon, the likely Republican Senate candidate, tried a massive ad campaign in 2010 and lost. She's still seen unfavourably by voters there (40/44), including Republicans. From TPM:

McMahon suffers from a loss of support from her own base. GOP voters are a clear minority in Connecticut, but she only sees support from three quarters of them in the poll, splitting the independent vote and only around ten percent of Democrats. On the other hand, Shays shows some real strength in general election matchups: he actuals bests Bysiewicz 42 - 40, and falls to Murphy 43 - 37. Against Bysiewicz, Shays pulls 47 percent of independent voters versus 30 for the former Secretary of State and essentially splits them against Murphy.

CT has seven electoral votes (EV), and has been seen as part of Obama's solid 239 EV base by most. A win by Shays for the Senate seat wouldn't technically be a "pick-up" for the Democrats because Lieberman ostensibly caucused with the Democrats, but it would be a far more solid vote than Lieberman's. 

Overall, this poll is good news. It shows Obama increasing his popularity and his lead over the likely Republican front-runner, and it shows a Senate win for the Democrats.

PPP: "Obama up in NC", leads by 3

I'm having to catch up with PPP's latest poll on NC (804 RV, ±3.5% MoE, 3/8 - 3/11), which places Obama three points ahead of Romney in a match-up. 

PPP's Tom Jensen writes:

Whoever the Republican nominee is Barack Obama has an advantage over him right now. Obama leads Romney by 3 points, 49-46. That's up from a 1 point lead a month ago. And Obama's ahead of Santorum by 5 points, 49-44. That's up from a 2 point lead in February. Obama's up 48-41 on Ron Paul and 51-42 on Newt Gingrich.

Obama's breaking even on his approval numbers in the state with 49% giving him good marks and 49% poor ones. This is the first time since last June Obama hasn't been under water in North Carolina. Obama hit a low water mark in September 43/53. He's seen modest improvement with Democrats and Republicans since then, but the really big shift is with independents. He's gone from 31/62 with them to 46/51- they're still not fond of him but he's coming a lot closer to breaking even now than he did six months ago. 

Part of Obama's good numbers in North Carolina are a function of his own improved popularity, but he's also benefiting from the poor image of his opponents. As we're finding in most swing states Mitt Romney is very unpopular with only 31% of voters seeing him favorably to 56% with a negative opinion. Rick Santorum doesn't do much better- his favorability spread is 36/52.

As much as the Republican base screeches about the unpopular President, it's clear in poll after poll that their front-runner is even more unpopular. 

Let's look at the ideological breakdown of this poll's sample:

Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 29%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 25%
Very conservative ........................................... 20%

Using simple arithmetic, we can see that self-described conservatives are 45% of the sample, and only 27% are liberal. Of course, this has not prevented partisan wingnuts from dismissing this poll as biased toward "the Far Left". With the largest group describing themselves as "moderates", I guess the new definition of "Far Left" is "moderate". Because, in the mind of a wingnut, any poll showing Republicans losing is "biased". 

 

As we see above, the race in 2008 was very close for NC. Let's look at PPP's Dustin Ingalls' response to a critic for an explanation of what, exactly, has changed in NC since 2008 (emphasis added):

Mark: You obviously don't know anything about NC, which is one of the fastest-growing states in the country, and has been for 20 years. Some estimate that a third of the state's population did not live here four years ago. Most of the voters who move here are more liberal than the natives and more educated. We asked in a poll one month last year when respondents first lived in NC, and those who moved here or were born 20 years ago or after were going for Obama by 20 points over Romney. (Tom Jensen and I are among this group.) That was a huge chunk of the electorate, and this was when Obama was in worse shape than he is now.

So Obama's decline with independents and and moderate/conservative Dems is buffered by the sheer demographic shifts taking place in this state, plus his continuing popularity with black and Hispanic voters (and growing popularity with the latter because of Republican rhetoric on immigration). That's why you see him holding his ground or even improving in other growing, diverse states like VA, CO, NM, and AZ relative to states which are declining in population and which are older and whiter, like OH, PA, NH, and most of the Midwest.

I recall, during the 2008 election, dealing with conservatives fixated on the results of 2004 (and even 2000) in states to "prove" that Obama couldn't win. In the response above, "Mark" claims that, since Obama is now 'known', he cannot win over any Republican. Sadly, this is a pretty standard level of 'analysis' from conservatives. Voter demographics change, and time is not on the side of the GOP. By tying themselves to a 1950's-style morality and mindset, dismissing virtually all Hispanics as "illegals", and virtually all African-American votes as "fraudulent", the Republicans have locked themselves into an older, whiter voting base. And they aren't even strongly carrying that older and whiter demographic. 

Let's look at the highlights of this poll: 

• In job approval, Obama wins moderates by more than 2-to-1 (67/30). Romney's "favourables" with moderates are reversed (24/65). Yet, per the wingnut narrative, Obama is on the "Far Left". 
• In a a match-up with Romney, Obama carries moderates by more than 2-to-1 (64/28).
• Obama's job approval numbers show a strong gender gap. Women view him more favourably (55/42), while males are the opposite (41/56). Males are turning out to be a crucial demographic in the Republican base in this election.
• Romney's "favourables", however, are lousy for both genders. Women break a negative 28/57, while men break a negative 34/55. This means that Romney is viewed less favourably by men than Obama is.
• When matched up with Romney, these male favourables go out the window. Women break in Obama's favour 55/39, which is in line with their approvals. Men break in Romney's favour 54/42, although only 34% of men have a favourable opinion of Romney. This is classic "soft support", with males breaking along the lines of their approval of the incumbent, rather than the alternative. 
• Obama's job approval with Independents (as mentioned by Jensen) are negative (46/51), but their  view of Romney is even worse (36/53). 
• Independents, however, break for Romney is a match-up (44/49). That leaves 8% of Independents breaking for a candidate (Romney) that they don't view favourably. Again, soft support.
• Romney wins white voters 57/37, but Republicans will have to do better than 57% of this crucial demographic in order to win.
• Obama wins a majority of voters 45 or younger when matched up with Romney. Romney, however, only breaks even with voters over 45. 

In summary, we see that the conservative base (despite being 45% of the sample) is isolated in public opinion. There is a strong breaking point between moderates (and liberals, of course) and those who consider themselves to be more conservative. Romney (and the other candidates) simply fail to appeal beyond the conservative base in significant percentages. 

We also see soft support for Romney among males and Independent voters. Voting demographics with soft support usually do not donate money or volunteer for a campaign, and they do not "talk up" a candidate to to others in their peer group. Rather than swinging to the other side, they tend to sit out elections if their opinion of their candidate sours further - or if their view of the opponent becomes more favourable. Undecided voters in demographics showing soft support are also much less likely to show up at the polls.

Older voters are also unreliable for Romney. He's underwater with voters 45 or older by more than 20 points, and only breaking even in a match-up. 14% of his match-up support among voters 65+ doesn't view him favourably. This hardly seems like a solid base to build a culture war upon.

North Carolina is a crucial State for the Republican path to 270 electoral votes (EV), which is what it takes to win the Presidency. Without NC and its 15 EV, the GOP has to win every toss-up State. Even then, it's a dicey proposition to get to 270 EV. For Obama, winning NC opens up several possibilities to reach 270 EV. 

If CO and VA go to Obama, the addition of NC would allow him to lose FL, PA, OH, NH, and all of the Republican-leaning toss-up States - while still winning re-election. 

With PA currently polling Obama ahead, PA + NC would allow Obama to lose CO, IA, FL, OH, NH and all of the Republican-leaning toss-ups - and still reach 270 EV. 

So the Republican effort to win the White House pretty much hangs on which way NC goes, and Republican partisans are reduced to crowing over a possible tie within the margin of error (MoE), or dismissing the polling completely as 'biased'. I fail to see how having an election depend on a virtual coin toss in NC is a positive thing for the GOP, but that seems to be their current optimistic scenario. 

Also, having Obama showing positive momentum in NC with Independents is hardly a good omen for Republicans. Voters are unlikely to be convinced that Obama is scary at this point. The key is for Romney to be seen more favourably, but the extended primary is making that less and less likely by the day. With the rabid Republican base pushing Romney further and further toward the Right, these numbers we are seeing now could easily become the Republican high-water mark in NC for 2012.

 -------------------------
Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections: 
 

Gallup again shows Obama with positive favourables

As with a few days ago, Gallup is showing Obama above water in job approval (48/44).

GALLUP DAILY

Mar 6-8, 2012

Obama Approval

48%

Obama Disapproval

44%

In February, the President had an average job approval of 45% in Gallup's polling. This is getting close to the putatively magical level of 46% that Selzer finds so important.

Even Gallup admits, however, that the Republican candidates are less popular than the supposedly "hated tyrant" Obama. We have had several months now of exposure to the Republican field, and a primary campaign that has been heavily covered by the media since January. If anything, the Republicans have become even less popular with increased exposure. Even match-ups with generic Republican candidates aren't giving rosy results for the GOP any more. PPP's last weekly survey showed Obama ahead of the generic Republican 48/45. Even the last generic Congressional ballot from PPP showed Democrats and Republicans breaking even 44/44 in a match-up. Where is this huge Republican advantage, if it's still 2010 in the minds of the wingnuts?

Gallup shows Obama with positive favourables

Gallup polling has been consistent in showing lower approval ratings for Obama than many other pollsters. Rather than using a true daily tracker, Gallup uses a three-day rolling average to smooth out the day-to-day noise that plagues pollsters such as Rasmussen. Even though Gallup has been relatively pessimistic on the President's approval, the trend has been improving since October of last year.

You may recall Ann Selzer's Iowa poll showing Ron Paul winning the State, and Obama losing to both Romney and Santorum there. In justifying her outlier numbers, Selzer invoked Gallup's magical 49% approval threshold:

No president has been re-elected with a national approval rating under 49 percent, according to Gallup polling dating to 1964. It’s a watershed mark, and about 8½ months from the election, Gallup national polling Saturday had Obama at 46 percent — underwater.

 Of course, Selzer neglected to consider that even Gallup says that the Republican candidates are even less popular than Obama. 

Now Obama is creeping up to 48% approval on the Gallup tracker. He's been narrowing the gap throughout February, as well.

Feb 29-Mar 2, 2012 –

Obama Approval

48% +1

Obama Disapproval

46% -1

 We are beginning to see a divide in the polling world. A relative few have invested heavily in the notion of an unpopular President, based largely on 2010. They see, and find in their survey results, a pervasive Republican tilt. A large number of other pollsters have found that the Republican "wave" brought in a lot of people that are now unpopular, and they also find the current Republican candidates to be unpopular, too. 

It all comes down to if you believe that 2010 is over or not. Unfortunately for those on the Right, they saw 2010 as a huge Republican base overwhelming a tiny number of "libs". Instead, it was a case of a large number of Independent voters taking a gamble on Republicans, who seemed to have all of the answers in their vague plans. 

That Republican base is smaller than it was in 2010, but if you live in that world, you see that 2010 is still very much alive. Those people still see vast numbers of Independent voters cheering them on, and imagine that these Independents will join them if Republicans can just get "conservative enough". 

In order to support this delusional narrative, survey results must show an unpopular President and they must show Independent voters breaking for Republicans in match-ups. At the very least, they must show that Independents as considering the Republicans in a more favourable light than Obama. In other words, Republicans need better "favourables" than Obama among Independent voters. They also need polling to show that Republicans are winning match-ups by a larger percentage than makes up the core Republican base. So these are things to look for in any poll.

Ras Trax 2/14, PPP national

Today's journey into the world of Rasmussen brings us the hint of old Scotty's "things changed" narrative. He seems to be insinuating that Romney's negative campaigning in FL is the "event" that "changed" the race. In Rasmussen's (fixed and bogus) polling, Romney was tied before FL. Now he is seven points down on Obama. Santorum, in yet another dizzying shift, is down nine in a match-up with Obama. Weird how Santorum was a point ahead of the President (in Rasmussen's fixed figures) when it was convenient to boost Santorum's "electability" narrative. It's also strange how Romney showed a six-point lead in December (in Rasmussen's fixed figures), but now is behind by seven in the same match-up against the President.

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 49% to 42% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  The numbers are very similar if former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee. In that case, the president leads 49% to 41%. Among unaffiliated voters, the president leads Romney by 10 and Santorum by 16.

One week before the Florida primary, Romney and Obama were tied. In the week leading up to that event, Romney fell behind by margins ranging from two to six points. The GOP hopeful has fallen further behind since that time. Over the past week, he has trailed the president by margins ranging from four to ten points (see tracking history for all candidates).

Overall, 51% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) at least somewhat disapprove. 

Also, Obama is back above 50% in approval, which is also strange. Rasmussen just told us that 50% of likely voters were pissed off at Obama over the Catholic / birth control issue.

Gallup just released a poll that says even Catholics themselves aren't that upset about the issue: 

              

PRINCETON, NJ -- Catholics' views of President Obama were little changed during a week in which the administration battled publicly with Catholic leaders over whether church-affiliated employers should have to pay for contraception as part of their employees' health plans. An average of 46% of Catholics approved of the job Obama was doing as president last week, compared with 49% the prior week, a change within the margin of sampling error.

And the latest CBS/NYT poll fails to back up old Scotty Rasmussen:

                          

The number is similar among self-professed Catholics surveyed: 61 percent said they support the Obama administration's rule, while 32 percent oppose it.

Sounds like a losing issue for Republicans. PPP also polled the issue, and didn't find Rasmussen's 50% opposed. Oh, yeah: "likely voters". Sure. 

Also in polling, PPP released their new national survey. (1200 RV, 2/9-2/12, MoE +/- 2.8%)

Romney trails 49-42, down two points from 49-44 last month. Santorum has improved three points on the margin from a 50-42 deficit to only 49-44 now. President Obama has inched up three points versus Ron Paul (from 47-42 to 49-41), and five over Newt Gingrich (from 49-42 to 52-40). Obama leads Paul by one, Santorum by four, Romney by nine, and Gingrich by 19 points with independents. Santorum is the strongest of the Republicans with the GOP, but still loses 12% of them to Obama, while Obama cedes only 8-11% of his party versus any opponent.

Q13 Do you think the economy is improving, getting
worse, or staying about the same?
Improving........................................................ 41%
Getting worse.................................................. 31%
Staying about the same .................................. 27%
Not sure .......................................................... 1%

•  In a match-up with Obama, Santorum loses females 53/40 and breaks even with men 46/48. Romney is pretty much the same, but Obama edges out men 46/43 in that case.
• Gender seems to make no difference on the question about the economy improving.
• Ron Paul wins the white vote 48/40/12 in a match-up with Obama. Romney wins them 50/41/9. Santorum does best with whites: 52/41/ 7. That's getting into interesting territory with Santorum. If he pulls half of the undecided whites, he moves up to nearly 55%. This is what McCain got, but it's still higher than I would like to see.
• Paul loses the 18-29 demographic to Obama 56/35/10. Even if he wins all of the undecideds, he loses that age group. So much for the Paul "youth vote" narrative. Romney does even worse with the demographic: 59/29/13. And Santorum is dismal at 63/29/8.
• In a match-up with Obama, Santorum wins the 65+ age demographic by eight: 42/50/8. Romney does a bit worse at 43/46/11.

We can only wonder if Santorum's numbers will go down as voters become more familiar with him. 

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Ras Trax 2/13, Pew sees Romney drop

Eight point leads nationally for Obama over both Santorum and Romney in today's Rasmussen daily tracking poll. This poll period is outside of the caucus wins that Santorum had 2/7. It's somewhat humorous that Rasmussen points out the flakiness of his polling by referring to his previous ridiculous leads over Obama by other "flare candidates". Are we really supposed to believe that Santorum dropped nine points over four days in national match-ups? That Santorum lead was another of Rasmussen's phony build-ups of Romney alternatives to make them seem far more electable in a general election than they really are.

In a potential Election 2012 matchup, the president posts a 48% to 42% lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.  Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum trails the president by eight, 49% to 41%. 

This is the first time since February 3, shortly after the Florida primary, that Romney has been closer to the president than Santorum (see tracking history). In polling conducted February 2-3, Santorum had a one-point advantage over the president. However, he quickly fell back and has now joined Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich who led the president once in a single poll but could not sustain it.

So now Romney and Santorum are both behind by 8, with a statistically-meaningless single point difference in the numbers. And Rasmussen continues to be the joke of the polling world.

Pew released a new poll today, showing bad news for the Republicans in the Presidential race. While the main focus is on Santorum's rise against Romney, Pew also shows an eight-point lead for Obama:

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Feb. 8-12 among 1,501 adults, including 1172 registered voters and 552 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, finds that Barack Obama holds sizable leads over Santorum, Romney and Newt Gingrich in general election match-ups. Obama leads Santorum by 10 points among all registered voters (53% to 43%) and his lead over Romney is nearly as large (52% to 44%). Romney ran about even with Obama in November and mid-January.

                                       

Quite a trend there for Obama against Romney. And the new-found enthusiasm from the Republican base over Rick Santorum isn't helping him in the general election match-ups. Maybe that's because what sells big in the Republican bubble really isn't that appealing outside of the bubble. If Rasmussen is correct in his numbers (big "if"), then 35% of the electorate is Republican - and likely voters are even higher than that. Best case is that Santorum is pulling only 8% of the voters that do not already self-identify as Republicans. And Romney's only pulling 9% outside of the base - unless that 4% who "Don't Know" are all Republicans. 

So, how is Romney doing with Independent voters?

                                

                        

Romney has turned a 12-point lead with Independents into an 8-point deficit, in one quarter. And now we are going to see social conservative issues dominate the Republican primary campaign, which always turn off Independents. Both Santorum and Romney have been harsh, strident, and unequivocal in their constant denunciations of Obama - and Obama has been improving his standing.

The Republican delusion is that, once the RNC is over, the Republicans will join as one and denounce Obama with even scarier, crazier, and more vicious attacks than ever. 

And, naturally, since the nation takes the opinion of the Republican Party very seriously, the voters all gasp in horror that they ever could have considered voting for someone the Republicans hate that much. Obama loses. 

The bottom line is that everyone has heard this crap before. If you didn't believe it before, you won't believe it now. Judging by Pew's polling results, these attacks currently are believed by ...44% of the country. And that number seems to be declining. 

Maybe it's because the socialist Muslim hell that the Republicans all swore would happen, really didn't. Everything isn't nationalized, there are no FEMA "death camps", nobody is rounding up gun owners or taking their guns away, there is no hyper-inflation caused by Stimulus spending, there is no tyrannical government regulating every aspect of your life, and people aren't being forced into "collectives". Obama hasn't turned out to be dictator. 

So we've heard all of that scary crap before. The conservatives, the Tea Party, the entire wingnut radio industry, and the Republican elected officials all were completely wrong. No Apocalypse. No dictatorship. At no point did these things even threaten to be concerns, much less accurately depict the current reality. 

And Republicans are just going to recycle this same crap? "We were pretty off-base before on our scary predictions, but this time we're sure.!" Really? And this strategy has brought Obama to an 8-point lead over the Republicans, but it's gonna start working real good any day now, right? Money doesn't help when your message is the same narrative that has already been rejected.

Rasmussen finally begins state polling

Two polls so far: FL and OH. Rasmussen is already showing the obligatory narrative-bolstering rise of Santorum in these polls. Neither poll is very good ammunition for delusional wingnuts bent on disproving PPP's numbers.

Florida:

Rasmussen
2/9/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2012 President
47% Obama (D), 44% Romney (R)
47% Obama (D), 46% Santorum (R)

Ohio:

Rasmussen
2/8/12; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2012 President
45% Obama (D), 41% Romney (R)
44% Obama (D), 44% Santorum (R)

According to PPP's rough electoral vote analysis, Obama will win the needed 270 electoral votes (EV) if he can win either OH or FL.

The fact that you can take the same set of polls and use them to put Obama at either 337 or 255 electoral votes speaks to how up in the air this year's Presidential race is. But Obama should find this heartening- he has 255 electoral votes locked up in states where we found him with at least a 5 point average poll lead in 2011.  If he can win just one out of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina that puts him over 270.

 And now Rasmussen is showing Obama with a weasel-lead in both States, over both the "inevitable" Romney as well as the "insurgent" Santorum. Actually, Santorum only ties Obama in Ohio in Rasmussen's world. But Ohio is a must-win State for Republicans.

PPP shows Obama winning OH by six or seven points, depending on the Republican candidate.

NC is pretty much a tie as PPP polls it.

In November, PPP showed a tie in PA.

Back in January, Quinnipiac showed a tie in FL against Romney:

Quinnipiac
1/19-23/12; 1,518 registered voters, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
Quinnipiac release
Florida
2012 President
45% Obama (D), 45% Romney (R)
49% Obama (D), 40% Santorum (R)
47% Obama (D), 39% Paul (R)
50% Obama (D), 39% Gingrich (R)

 So Obama either leads or ties in all four States, and Republicans really must win all of these toss-ups. On top of that, MO is now a toss-up, and Republicans must win that State to get 270 EV.

Of course, the wingnuts shriek, "It's only February! It can all turn around!!!!"

Okay, it could. But what is the big issue that Republicans see is going to turn the race around?

A bad economy? Hey, it's bad now, and Obama is winning. And it seems to be improving.

"Socialism"? I'm too lazy to even yawn at that one. Obama's already the biggest "socialist" EVER, if you believe wingnuts - and he's still winning.

Birth control? Really? Rasmussen is alone in showing that issue to be even marginally beneficial to the GOP.

If the 'big issue' is really just going to be that conservatives hate Obama, then the Republicans are screwed. Look, wingnuts, if someone isn't already part of your movement, they aren't particularly impressed by your opinion of the President - or much of anything, to be fair. There aren't millions of swing voters holding off their decision on who to vote for until the conservatives weigh in and tell them what to think. If the arguments and narratives that conservatives put forward haven't already worked on someone, it's unlikely these things will suddenly be effective and influential over them - and sway for them for another eight months or so. Either you believe the people who say Obama is a Muslim, or you don't. There's not a huge amount of analysis that needs to be done by the person hearing the narrative. It's about the credibility of the person telling you that Obama is a Muslim. If that same person tells you the same thing one thousand times, it doesn't become more credible; it just gets more annoying. After the past four years, it's pretty clear in the minds of the electorate what the Republican "message" is. People just don't buy the ever-shifting definitions, premises, and conclusions of that "message". So the Republicans are left with "social issues" (e.g. abortion, SSM, drug prohibition, War On Christmas, etc.).

Social issues really are only effective on the base, and those voters are already "in the bag" for whoever is the Republican nominee. Santorum is all about the social issues, so he brings no new voters to the Republican side with that strategy. In fact, he turns off Independents with that stuff. There is no way that the GOP is going to flip FIVE toss-up States with social issues.

Maybe Democrats won't vote. It doesn't look like it right now, though.

Our last national survey for Daily Kos found that 58% of Democrats were 'very excited' about voting this fall, compared to 54% of Republicans. Six months ago the figures were 48% of Democrats 'very excited' and Republicans at the same 54%. Generally you would expect voters to get more excited as the election gets nearer. That trend is occurring on the Democratic side, but not for the GOP.

Going deeper inside the numbers:
-25% of conservatives are not at all excited to vote this fall, compared to only 16% of liberals.
-The percentage of Tea Party voters 'very excited' about voting in November has declined from 73% to 62% since late July.
-The single group of voters most enthused about turning this year are African Americans, 72% of whom say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots.

Back again

I'm back again after a sojourn in the blogosphere wilderness.
I've been a reader and commenter on other blogs that I don't usually frequent in an effort to broaden my perspective. This has also brought me into contact with quite a few Republican and right-wing trolls, which is refreshing because it shows that their movement is bankrupt.
A few of my observations:

• Obama's lead dropping even a point on any given day somehow means that McCain is "winning". To most people, if your candidate is still behind, it means they are losing.
• There is always something, some minor event, which is allegedly going to "break things wide open" for McCain. Perhaps a GOP hack makes a disparaging remark about Obama. OMG! McCain is gonna win now fer sure! Or Regnery Press releases another one of their slimy character assassination books ("ObamaNation") - now the public is going to find out the "truth" about Obama and he is going down in flames. It never dawns on these fools that they said the same thing two weeks ago, and Obama is still ahead.
• Republicans still think the public believes every unsubstantiated assertion they utter. Apparently the GOP has immense credibility to the nation at large, at least in the minds of these partisans.
• If a state has a military base within its borders, it means that state will vote for McCain. Obviously (to the wingnuts) voting for Obama means that you don't support the troops, and the presence of a military base means that the vast majority of the state's residents support endless war.
• Obama wants our troops to die at the hands of terrorists, per wingnut CW. This is so incredibly obvious that Obama won't even try to deny it, which is "proof". Yeah.
• Spending a few days (seven years ago) in a rural part of a state that holds less than 10% of the state's population gives you a keen insight into how that state will vote. Thus, there is "no way" that Michigan will vote for Obama - polls be damned.
• Likewise, if a wingnut polls a half dozen people in the rural area of a Deep Red state where he lives, you can easily infer from that "poll" that Obama doesn't have a chance to win on the national stage. 'Nuff said.
• One wingnut heard from another wingnut, who heard from their pastor, that Obama is a "socialist". Again, the result is that McCain will win "in a landslide".
• Unless Obama himself explicitly denies something, then it's completely true. And if he does deny something, he's a liar, so it's true anyway.
• Everybody hates liberals, and the only way they ever get elected is because illegal immigrants vote them in. Uh-huh. Likewise, numbers of registered voters don't matter because Democrats don't vote - they are too busy watching TV and doing drugs. That's why McCain wins this time.
• Everybody hates popular people. Nobody is excited about McCain, so that unpopularity means that he wins. Obvious, isn't it?

Overall, Republicans are deeply stuck in a world where it is 2002 forever, and 2006 never happened. Rush Limbaugh and Bill Kristol are believed by everyone. The "success" in Iraq proves that America wants yet another war, as long as this means a lot of Muslims will die. Christians are a persecuted minority, but yet they are so strong and numerous that this is a "Christian Nation" that shouldn't tolerate Muslims.

One would also think that the current portrayal of Obama as the Antichrist would be a good way to get evangelicals to vote for him. If Obama wins, that means the Rapture is at hand, and the evangelicals claim to want that. Sadly, the fundamentalist hypocrisy is so deep that they don't even see the contradiction. If they truly believed that Obama was the Antichrist and that the End Times are at hand, wouldn't they be repenting and selling their possessions to donate to the poor? Instead, it's just another opportunity for slander in the name of being a good Christian.

So, I'm back from the wilderness to tell you that the GOP is screwed.
They are delusional victims of their own rhetoric, resting on their laurels and hoping for legions of imaginary voters to heed the Idiot Call and follow their orders.