Quinnipiac: Obama leads by 16 in CT

Although Connecticut is a New England State, the Right read a great deal into Lieberman's election to the Senate and the 2010 elections. Some saw CT as a possible flip and a Senate pick-up. 

They, of course, were sadly mistaken. 

The new Quinnipiac poll of CT (1230 RV, ±2.4% MoE, 3/14 - 3/19) shows Obama with a strong lead and the likely Republican Senate candidate losing badly. Obama leads Romney 53/37 in a match-up, with Obama improving by 4 points since mid-September with the same pollster. On top of that, Obama has picked up five points of "favourable" opinion since mid-September, and dropped 4 points of unfavourable opinion in that same period. Romney shows negative "favourables" at 35/43, with his "unfavourable" opinion increasing by 15 points since the previous poll. 

There isn't the familiar gender gap in these numbers, either. Obama wins slim majorities of men and women in a match-up, his "favourables" are good with both genders, and Romney is viewed about as unfavourably by both genders. Obama is even picking up 19% of self-described conservatives when matched up with Romney, and he wins Independents by 11 points over Romney. 

I don't think a big Super-PAC-funded ad campaign is going to turn the tide in CT. 

McMahon, the likely Republican Senate candidate, tried a massive ad campaign in 2010 and lost. She's still seen unfavourably by voters there (40/44), including Republicans. From TPM:

McMahon suffers from a loss of support from her own base. GOP voters are a clear minority in Connecticut, but she only sees support from three quarters of them in the poll, splitting the independent vote and only around ten percent of Democrats. On the other hand, Shays shows some real strength in general election matchups: he actuals bests Bysiewicz 42 - 40, and falls to Murphy 43 - 37. Against Bysiewicz, Shays pulls 47 percent of independent voters versus 30 for the former Secretary of State and essentially splits them against Murphy.

CT has seven electoral votes (EV), and has been seen as part of Obama's solid 239 EV base by most. A win by Shays for the Senate seat wouldn't technically be a "pick-up" for the Democrats because Lieberman ostensibly caucused with the Democrats, but it would be a far more solid vote than Lieberman's. 

Overall, this poll is good news. It shows Obama increasing his popularity and his lead over the likely Republican front-runner, and it shows a Senate win for the Democrats.