Cook Report 3/8

The latest House Race Chart from Charlie Cook is up. Here are the changes:

• NY-22 has dropped off the radar. On 3/5 it was "Likely Democratic". This means that the seat isn't even in slight jeopardy.
• NY-26 moved downward to "Democratic Toss-up", while NY-25 moved from "Republican Toss-up" to "Lean Democratic".
• AR-4 has moved from "Lean Republican" to "Likely Republican".
• NY-19 and NY-20 have moved downward from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican".
• MI-3 is now "Likely Republican", indicating a slight drop from safe.

Chip Cravaack (MN-8) is still deemed a  "Republican Toss-up", and John Kline (MN-2) is still deemed "Likely Republican". Collin Peterson (MN-7) is still considered to be "Likely Democratic". Bachmann (MN-6) and Walz (MN-1) aren't listed, which means that their seats are considered safe. 

Walz's case is particularly interesting, since the MN GOP is involved in a contested primary race over who will get the chance to lose in 2012. Mike Parry, who has important positions in the Republican-controlled MN Senate, is vying with evangelist retread Allen Quist for the seat. 

Quist lost his race for Governor several years ago, and usually that marks one as a permanent loser in the MN GOP. Now, with the evangelicals having successfully taken over the MN GOP, Quist is getting a second chance due to his evangelical cred. For Quist, it's a last chance. 

Parry, however, has a lot to lose. Having won a special election against the execrable Sen. Dick Day, he won a full MN Senate term in 2010 - 54/46. It would be really nice to see Parry lose the race and become marked as a loser by his own Party. I am really hoping that Parry wins the primary, because the MN GOP doesn't seem to have any money to spend on campaigns, and the evangelicals have been very stingy with their money of late. All of the evangelical money seems to be going into the campaign for the Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage, with actual races left as an afterthought. 

If Quist wins the primary (and goes on to lose the race for the seat), it will be a huge warning signal that the evangelical Party takeover has big negative electoral consequences. I would think that the DFL would like the MN GOP to continue down the "social conservative " road. So, if Parry wins (and goes on to lose the race for the seat), the evangelicals can scream that their guy would have won. It would strengthen their hold on the Party, which is good for the DFL. And Parry's career would take a permanent hit, which is just a bonus for the DFL.