Gallup: Obama reaches 50% approval

A great deal of the Right's narrative (and the punditry that pushes it) is based on low job approval for Obama with the pollster Gallup. Supposedly, the President's low job approvals make the Republican nominee look more competitive, and makes Obama vulnerable to virtually charge or flimsy scandal that the GOP puts forward.

Facts never get in the way of Republican narratives, of course.

Polling has shown that Romney is viewed unfavourably outside of the Republican base, and only grudgingly accepted within that base.Even worse, his numbers are declining. Those who see Romney rebounding after the Republican National Convention (RNC) fail to realise:

• The RNC will be very divisive, following very divisive State Conventions.
• Romney will have to go on record supporting very conservative positions, and endorsing ideas that most outside of the Republican think are kind of crazy.
• All of these statements will be on record and available for campaign ads against him.
• Romney will have to back away from these statements after the nomination.

It remains to be seen how much the Republican base will "rally" to Romney. One of the consequences of the 2010 election is that every faction of the GOP, from "sovereign citizens" to Libertarians to evangelicals, saw the results as some kind of national validation of support for their faction. Each faction sees this as "their time" and "their turn". Each faction sees some mythical Heartland majority as loyal to their agenda, and each sees their faction as the only hope to defeating Obama in the general election. Each faction sees themselves as "overdue" for its reward from the Party for its decades of support. And the strict message discipline of the GOP has been fractured for years now, with no one at the wheel. The GOP has basically been throwing out conflicting narratives for years and seeing which ones "stick", while abandoning narratives that get stale or fail to resonate. No one, including the base, knows what the GOP stands for -- other than the willingness to claim anything as indisputable truth that is seen to hurt Obama. And, how enthusiastic will this base be when Romney backs off from conservative positions in the general? Will they believe him when he winks to them, or will they remember how this guy stands for nothing at all?

Meanwhile, Obama is essentially a "known quantity". Outside of the Republican base, people are not afraid of him, do not hate him, and do not want to punish him. They wish he had been more successful, and they had higher hopes for his first term. That doesn't mean that "anyone" is seen as an acceptable alternative to him.

It's now clear that there will be no magical, hugely popular, messiah from the Republican Party who can fix everything with a wave of his hand. It's going to be Romney, and Romney is a blank slate. With selective reading of his shifting positions, he can either be a guy who believes in everything that you believe in, or nothing that you believe in. And, given the electorate's disenchantment with politicians (as well as the Republican Party), guess which of those two options most will go for.

In fact, the same cynical disappointment with Obama that the GOP is depending on is also the thing that makes voters project their worst assumption upon Romney's blank slate.

Now we get to see the very same pundits, strategists, and shills (who have invoked Gallup for years) go to great lengths to ignore Gallup's results.

GALLUP DAILY

Apr 3-5, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval

50%  +1

Obama Disapproval

43%  -3

 So far, for the month of April, the President has polled at least 47% job approval nationally with Gallup.
The current figure of 50% approval is the highest all year. This is happening as the Republican primaries are testing out their attack narratives, and as the nation is supposed to be concentrating on what a 'failure' Obama is supposed to have been.

Actually, you would have to go back to late May 2011 to find a higher job approval rating, or early June 2011 to find a lower disapproval with Gallup. State polling from other pollsters has also shown Obama's "favourables" improving over that time frame. His positions in match-ups has also improved for states that are considered to be "in play".

There is a sharp drop-off in negative opinion of Obama between conservatives and moderates, and the Republican base is increasingly isolated in opinion compared with the rest of the electorate. There is almost a palpable scorn, a "you are either with or against us" attitude, coming from conservatives toward non-conservatives.

One of the consequences of so much of the Republican electoral strength being limited to solid "red" States is that these Republican voters live in a world where no one supports the President. This reinforces the mistaken idea that they are much more popular than they really are, and encourages them to dismiss those outside of the Republican base as a small minority that will be steamrollered in the general election. This fist-shaking rage, and the implied promises of "payback" for not jumping on the bandwagon, just serve to drive Independents and swing voters away from them and towards the President.

Gallup: Obama leads nationally by 4

Gallup has been the most pessimistic pollster for Obama this election cycle, with Rasmussen now relegated to the role of noise-maker. Gallup doesn't do a "daily tracker" of election match-ups, just daily Presidential approval. So, when Gallup does a national match-up, it's worth looking at. And, when Gallup shows Obama leading, it means something. At the very least, it should mean something to right-wing pundits who have placed such emphasis on Gallup's results.

Gallup's latest national poll (901 RV, ±4% MoE, 3/25 - 3-26) shows Obama leading Romney 49/45. They also surveyed twelve swing states, which I will examine after looking at the national poll. We see that Romney is at his lowest percentage in the match-up since 8/11, in spite of a national primary campaign that has given him dramatic media exposure, and Super PAC-funded ad campaigns in many states.

Obama leads both Romney and Santorum among independent voters, faring slightly better against Santorum than he does against Romney. Romney and Santorum currently fare about equally well among Republican voters.

 In fact, Independent voters are breaking 48/40 in Obama's favour in this poll.

And, let's look at today's daily job approval figures from Gallup:

GALLUP DAILY

Mar 30-Apr 1, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval

47%  +1

Obama Disapproval

44%  -1

Once again, the President is on positive ground in job approval nationally. 

I've written about Romney's "soft support" previously. The numbers of those who say they would vote for him in a match-up are higher (by double digits) than those who say that they have a favourable opinion of him. Most worrisome, perhaps, is this gap among men, voters over the age of 65, and white voters. These are usually core demographics for the GOP, but Romney's numbers do not show strong support from those who are willing to vote for him. Usually, this means lower enthusiasm for a candidate with "soft support".

Unsurprisingly, Gallup finds that Romney's supporters are losing enthusiasm:

Forty-two percent of registered voters nationwide say they are "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" about voting for president in this year's election. That is down significantly from 52% in January and 47% and 48% in December and October, respectively.

The decline is especially apparent among Romney voters, whose enthusiasm has fallen 13 percentage points from January, and now is on par with Obama voters' enthusiasm. Prior to the latest poll, at least half of Romney voters were extremely or very enthusiastic about voting, and their enthusiasm exceeded that of Obama voters.

 Okay, so even the people who say they will vote for Romney in November are less enthusiastic, and there are fewer of them than before. Gallup finds that Democratic enthusiasm has dropped seven points over the same period, but Obama's match-up numbers have gone up in response.

Now let's look at the match-ups in the twelve swing states. Gallup polled (933 RV, ±4% MoE, 3/20 - 3/26) CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA, and WI as a composite.

Obama has a 51% to 42% lead over Romney in USA Today/Gallup polling of registered voters in 12 key swing states, conducted March 20-26. This is the first time in five measurements that Obama has held an advantage over Romney in those states.

That's a nine-point lead, with only 7% undecided. These results from the swing states are even more impressive than the national polling results, because the strong majority of states are already solidly on one side or the other. The margins of victory in those solid states is meaningless to the electoral vote (EV) count, but the 12 states that Gallup polled are still "in play". Some are more "in play" than others, however. WI and MI, for example, have been found solidly for Obama already by other pollsters, Still, these twelve states are the ones that will basically decide the election. Together, they total 139 EV out of 270 needed to win. Polling has shown Obama to be competitive in all of them, when examined individually. He has shown leads in most of them in surveys by various pollsters.

And now Gallup, the pollster that Beltway pundits and Republican strategists have been clinging to for several months, is saying that Romney is currently losing those twelve states. 

Conventional wisdom says that Obama can't win with his current low job approval numbers. For example, Ann Selzer wrote:

No president has been re-elected with a national approval rating under 49 percent, according to Gallup polling dating to 1964. It’s a watershed mark, and about 8½ months from the election, Gallup national polling Saturday had Obama at 46 percent — underwater.

Selzer, of course, did not take into account that Romney's "favourables" are much lower than Obama's. Nor did she consider that Romney's "favourables" are on the decline, while Obama's are on the rise. Gallup, in fact, says:

The momentum in the 2012 U.S. presidential election appears to be going in Obama's favor; he now enjoys his best positioning against likely Republican nominee Romney nationally and in key swing states to this point in the campaign. Obama's improved standing may result from Americans' improving confidence in the economy and satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States.

So far in March, Obama has been above water (approval higher than disapproval) more than he has been underwater. In the period that this survey was conducted, Obama had job approvals of 47% and 48%, while he wins 49% in the match-up with Romney. That leaves a negligible amount of "soft support" for the President.

Certainly, things can change. But I am at a loss to see how Romney's position will improve significantly after he wins the nomination. The Republican base may "rally to him", but he's already got 84% of Republicans breaking for him in this poll.  Even if he wins the remaining 16% of Republicans, that's only about 5% of the general electorate. And Romney's losing Independents by eight points. Why should Independent voters "rally" to Romney once he is nominated? They aren't Republicans. And, whatever it would take to win that remaining 16% of Republicans is almost certain to alienate Independent voters. The Super PACs can run ads, but everything that they are going to repeat ad nauseum has already been said before, and it hasn't made a difference. 

This is the same stupid assumption that McCain made in 2008. If only the Republicans scream that Obama is a terrorist Muslim radical who will take away your guns...blah, blah, blah... then the voters will side with McCain. We saw how that worked. You can say the words "failed President" all that you want, but people have already heard that, and they are still breaking for Obama. The "magic words" that Republicans are relying on just don't work on people outside of the Republican base.

Gallup: Obama job approval 48/44

Gallup has been much more pessimistic when it comes to Obama's job approval than other pollsters. Because of that, right-leaning pundits and analysts tend to rely on Gallup's figures a lot to make their cases. This might get harder, as Obama's job approvals with Gallup have been improving. Twice last week, Obama hit 49% approval - 49/44 two days straight. And the last results showed him narrowly "above water" at 47/46.

GALLUP DAILY

Mar 21-23, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval

48%

Obama Disapproval

44%

 Also, let's take a look at Pollster.com's Romney vs. Obama charts, excluding Rasmussen:

Now, let's take a look at the same chart, only including Rasmussen:

See the difference that Rasmussen makes? By swamping the pool with his daily tracker, Scotty exercises undue influence over the narrative.
Rasmussen cuts Obama's support by one point, and increases Romney's support by 1.2 points.

Gallup again shows Obama with positive favourables

As with a few days ago, Gallup is showing Obama above water in job approval (48/44).

GALLUP DAILY

Mar 6-8, 2012

Obama Approval

48%

Obama Disapproval

44%

In February, the President had an average job approval of 45% in Gallup's polling. This is getting close to the putatively magical level of 46% that Selzer finds so important.

Even Gallup admits, however, that the Republican candidates are less popular than the supposedly "hated tyrant" Obama. We have had several months now of exposure to the Republican field, and a primary campaign that has been heavily covered by the media since January. If anything, the Republicans have become even less popular with increased exposure. Even match-ups with generic Republican candidates aren't giving rosy results for the GOP any more. PPP's last weekly survey showed Obama ahead of the generic Republican 48/45. Even the last generic Congressional ballot from PPP showed Democrats and Republicans breaking even 44/44 in a match-up. Where is this huge Republican advantage, if it's still 2010 in the minds of the wingnuts?

Gallup shows Obama with positive favourables

Gallup polling has been consistent in showing lower approval ratings for Obama than many other pollsters. Rather than using a true daily tracker, Gallup uses a three-day rolling average to smooth out the day-to-day noise that plagues pollsters such as Rasmussen. Even though Gallup has been relatively pessimistic on the President's approval, the trend has been improving since October of last year.

You may recall Ann Selzer's Iowa poll showing Ron Paul winning the State, and Obama losing to both Romney and Santorum there. In justifying her outlier numbers, Selzer invoked Gallup's magical 49% approval threshold:

No president has been re-elected with a national approval rating under 49 percent, according to Gallup polling dating to 1964. It’s a watershed mark, and about 8½ months from the election, Gallup national polling Saturday had Obama at 46 percent — underwater.

 Of course, Selzer neglected to consider that even Gallup says that the Republican candidates are even less popular than Obama. 

Now Obama is creeping up to 48% approval on the Gallup tracker. He's been narrowing the gap throughout February, as well.

Feb 29-Mar 2, 2012 –

Obama Approval

48% +1

Obama Disapproval

46% -1

 We are beginning to see a divide in the polling world. A relative few have invested heavily in the notion of an unpopular President, based largely on 2010. They see, and find in their survey results, a pervasive Republican tilt. A large number of other pollsters have found that the Republican "wave" brought in a lot of people that are now unpopular, and they also find the current Republican candidates to be unpopular, too. 

It all comes down to if you believe that 2010 is over or not. Unfortunately for those on the Right, they saw 2010 as a huge Republican base overwhelming a tiny number of "libs". Instead, it was a case of a large number of Independent voters taking a gamble on Republicans, who seemed to have all of the answers in their vague plans. 

That Republican base is smaller than it was in 2010, but if you live in that world, you see that 2010 is still very much alive. Those people still see vast numbers of Independent voters cheering them on, and imagine that these Independents will join them if Republicans can just get "conservative enough". 

In order to support this delusional narrative, survey results must show an unpopular President and they must show Independent voters breaking for Republicans in match-ups. At the very least, they must show that Independents as considering the Republicans in a more favourable light than Obama. In other words, Republicans need better "favourables" than Obama among Independent voters. They also need polling to show that Republicans are winning match-ups by a larger percentage than makes up the core Republican base. So these are things to look for in any poll.

Gallup: Republican candidates are more unpopular than Obama

An interesting survey release from Gallup today: "Obama's Favorable Rating Higher Than GOP Candidates".

These ratings are from a Feb. 16-19 USA Today/Gallup poll and reflect a political landscape in which no more than half of Americans give any of these presidential contenders a positive rating.

 We often hear (e.g. Selzer) that Obama has lower favourable ratings than other Presidents at this stage of the election cycle. It's interesting to see that this year's Republican candidates are also much more unpopular than other years:

GOP Contenders Less Favorably Positioned Than in Previous Elections
This year's Republican presidential campaign has unfolded in a different fashion than previous years in which non-incumbent Republicans have run for their party's nomination. By February 2008 and February 2000, for example, the eventual GOP nominee was pretty well known. This year, the nominee won't be settled until after February. Perhaps as a result of these different timelines, none of the four Republican presidential contenders currently has an image as positive as those of previous non-incumbent GOP candidates in February of the election year. John McCain's national favorable rating was 56% in February 2008, George W. Bush's was 58% in 2000, and Bob Dole's was 49% in 1996.

The current Republican candidates are, at best, 17 points below the last Republican candidate -- who lost.