Maine (ME) is another of the solid bloc of electoral votes (EV) that Obama starts with on the path to 270 EV.
It is a State that was presumed solid based on PPP's October poll and their 3/11 poll. Now we have a new survey from PPP (1256 RV, ±2.8% MoE, 3/2 - 3/4) showing both job approval increases and larger leads for the President in ME:
President Obama leads each of his potential Republican challengers in Maine by 15 points or more, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. The President leads Mitt Romney in Maine 58-35 (up from 49-38 the last time PPP polled the matchup in October), leads Rick Santorum 58-35, and leads Newt Gingrich 60-32 (up from 55-35 compared to last October). Ron Paul actually performs best against Obama but still loses by 16 points, 54-38.
Now, that's a 23-point lead over Romney. And we also find that this "hated tyrant" is far more popular with ME voters than the Republican alternatives:
The Republican candidates suffer from horrific favorability ratings. Mitt Romney is viewed favorably by just 30% of voters compared to 63% who view him unfavorably (down from 38-49 last October). Rick Santorum sits at 29% favorable and 63% unfavorable. Newt Gingrich sees the worst favorability rating of the group at 17% favorable and 74% unfavorable (somehow down even further compared to where he was last October at 25-63). Ron Paul once again performs best, with a 34% favorable and 54% unfavorable opinion rating (up slightly from 24-57 last October).
Meanwhile President Obama enjoys a healthy 55-41 positive job approval rating in Maine, up sharply from 47-48 the last time PPP polled Maine in October.
Strong majorities disapprove of the Republican alternatives to the "Kenyan socialist", while a majority approves of the "unpopular" President.
Let's look at the ideological breakdown of the poll for further clues:
Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 14%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 21%
Moderate......................................................... 31%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 21%
Very conservative ........................................... 14%
35% of ME voters are at least "somewhat conservative". That's the same percentage that breaks for Romney and Santorum. Again we see that the Republican candidates' appeal is limited to the GOP base. Maine just had their Republican caucus last month (2/11), and presumably voters were exposed to Republican ad campaigns. This undermines the Right's fist-shaking contention that, once the general election gets going, voters will be swayed by a Super PAC-funded ad blitz.
What could that future ad blitz focus on that would sway voters so much? A bad economy? Surely voters are aware of the bad economy already. Socialism? Haven't we heard that non-stop for years now? Gas prices? Polling shows that Congress (and Republicans in Congress, specifically) get the blame for that from the voters. Scary conspiracies? Haven't we had these non-stop for years already?
As far as the idea that Republicans will rally to the nominee once he is selected, all I can say is, "So what?".
The GOP can't win with just their base, and they are working hard to turn off everyone outside of it. On top of that, they are living in a bubble reality in which it's still 2010. They still think that their "magic words" of "liberal", "socialist", "Kenya", "failure", etc. actually work on anyone outside of the base. The GOP is still selling a "war against the libs", which is not what Independent voters want. It's not what they wanted in 2010, either. They wanted jobs, and instead they got a war against "liberals".
Let's look at the example of Maine, a State that elected a right-wing Governor (LePage) in 2010. PPP's 3/11 poll shows that 2010 is over in ME:
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Paul LePage’s job performance?
Approve................. 41%
Disapprove............ 52%
Not sure ................ 7%
Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for independent
Eliot Cutler, Republican Paul LePage, or
Democrat Libby Mitchell?
Eliot Cutler ............ 43%
Paul LePage.......... 35%
Libby Mitchell ........ 19%
Not sure ................ 3%
Q3 If there was an election for the State
Legislature today, would you generally vote for
Democratic candidates or Republicans?
Democrats............. 51%
Republicans .......... 37%
Not sure ................ 13%
If Obama is "hated" because he is under Gallup's magical 46% mark, then how popular can LePage be when he is at 41% approval? This is a State where a slim majority want to vote for a Democratic-controlled Legislature, not a "war against the libs". This is a State where Obama's job approval rating is going up, not down. How can anyone on the Right look at these numbers and think that the strategies of 2010 will continue to work in 2012?
The answer is "delusion". Conservatives have isolated themselves socially into a world where everyone agrees with them. Everyone has learned to nod or make inane responses to their crazy, out-of-touch talking points and wild conspiracies. If you don't do that, you will get a dose of spittle-flecked fury and a long, angry rant. Nobody's mind will be changed, so why not just mutter vague agreement and let these crazy geezers live in their fantasy world?
Having laid 2010 to rest, let's look at this new poll's highlights:
- Obama gets strong "favourables" from moderates (68/25), while Romney gets nearly the reverse (28/66). Moderates break more than 3-1 in Obama's favour when matched up with Romney (69/22).
- Obama has strong "favourables" with female voters (62/34), while merely breaking even with men (48/47). Males are turning out to be a key Republican demographic in this election, and breaking even is not a strong showing.
- In a match-up with Romney, Obama wins women voters strongly (64/30) and a slim majority of men (52/41). That means that 6% of men who have an unfavourable opinion of Obama still break for him in a match-up with Romney.
- A slim majority of Independent voters have a favourable opinion of Obama (54/38), and they break strongly for Obama in a match-up with Romney (57/32). Again, 6% of Independent voters with an unfavourable job approval for Obama still end up voting for him over Romney.
- Obama picks up 16% of self-identified Republicans when matched up with Romney.
- White voters (another crucial Republican demographic) break strongly for Obama over Romney (58/35).
- Voters older than 65 really do not like Romney. He has a negative 34/56 rating with this crucial Republican demographic. Obama wins the 65+ age group 58/35 in a match-up with Romney.
