Democrat ranks swell, Republican ranks dip

I know that, since the polls have all turned against them, Republicans dismiss any polling out of hand. The exception is any poll that shows Congress has low approval numbers, and even then they leave out the fact that the Republican members of Congress are considerably more unpopular than the Democratic members.

The tide has turned against Republicans so profoundly, yet since they live in a delusional world fueled by Fox News and talk radio, they still really believe that the public supports Bush. The Main Stream Media (MSM) is merely twisting the facts, or so they believe. Others are slightly more candid, and opine that the public has turned against them, but that people have simply been "misled" by the MSM, and that all it will take is exposure to 'the truth' and the public will rub their eyes and come out of their hypnotic state. The 'truth' is generally defined as talk about the "success" in Iraq, scary stories about an Islamic takeover of America, soldiers reading from scripts they rehearsed with their CO, and lots of flags and eagles. The unsaid 'truth' involves a copious amount of hatred, charges of treason, and bragging about torture. Another invasion (or possibly two) is also bandied about as a good way to bring the public around to the Republican view of things.

With the Decider slipping to 19% in polls, and national polls showing McCain losing to Obama at this stage, the usual dose of Republican Kool-Aid has been increased to alarming levels in order to fend off reality. Now, with the Gallup Poll shown below, they will need an IV for the stuff.

Despite the snarling neocon assertion that Americans despise the Democrats and everything they stand for (with those "things they stand for" being selectively defined by the aforementioned snarling neocon), the numbers of Americans describing themselves as Republicans has dropped over the past two months. This isn't the MSM defining people as Republicans, it's people themselves describing themselves as Republicans. On top of that, more than half of the country now has an unfavourable view of the GOP.

While the numbers of those who call themselves Independents have dropped substantially over the past few months, the major beneficiary has been the Democrats - or more precisely, those who call themselves Democrats.

40% of the American public now describe themselves as Democrats.
More than half of the country has a favourable view of the Democratic Party,
Likewise, more than half of the country feels that the Democrats "can bring about the changes this country needs", that they are "able to manage the federal government effectively", and that they have "mostly honest and ethical members in Congress".

The Presidential election, however, is not determined by popular vote. It is determined by the Electoral College (or by the Supreme Court, in Bush's case). The Republicans, by virtue of being the Party in power, still hold substantial sway over the MSM and the "punditocracy", but their message is having a declining effect. The divisions within the GOP, at the current time, also send "mixed signals" to the sheep. The vast majority of Democrats, however, would be happy with either candidate, at least according to exit polling in several primaries. Democratic turnout for the primaries has exceeded Republican turnout, even in the South. This is good news for Congressional elections, since they are not affected by the Electoral College. It is not outrageous to assume that nearly all of those who voted in the primary are likely to vote in the general election. As of right now, the Democrats hold the lead in potential electoral votes if the election were held today.

In one sense, at least, the continuing fight for the Democratic nomination is an advantage for the Democrats. By not having a single person to target, Republicans are forced to delay their slander campaigns. On the Republican side, McCain is increasingly associating himself with the stained and odious Bush legacy, which should hurt him over the coming months. The other sleeper factor is the economy. A declining economy virtually always works against the incumbent Party.

from the Gallup Poll

February 21, 2008

Democrats Have Significant Identification, Image Advantage

Percentage identifying as Democrats near Gallup high

by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans are now more likely to identify themselves as Democrats than at any time since 2000.

Forty percent of Americans in the Feb. 11-14 Gallup Poll -- in response to the question, "In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?" -- said they identified with the Democratic Party, while 26% identified with the Republican Party and 34% with neither (most of these considered themselves independents).

The 40% Democratic identification figure is unusually high. The last time 40% of Americans identified as Democrats was August 2000. Before that, there have been just a handful of Gallup Poll telephone surveys -- going back to 1985 -- in which 40% or more of Americans identified as Democrats. The highest Democratic identification in a Gallup telephone poll was 42% in July 1987.

The gap between Democratic and Republican identification -- now at 14 percentage points -- is also almost a record high. The gap was higher only in December 1998 -- immediately after President Bill Clinton had been impeached by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives -- when 41% of Americans identified as Democrats and only 20% as Republicans.

The highest level of identification with the Republican Party, 39%, has been reached at three points: in May 1991 (a few months after the first Persian Gulf War), December 2003 (in a poll in the field at the time of Saddam Hussein's capture), and September 2004 (after a successful Republican convention at which George W. Bush was nominated for a second term in office).

Last year, as often happens in a year in which there is no national election, Americans were increasingly likely to identify as independents. This year, as presidential election voting has begun in primaries and caucuses, the Democrats have been the beneficiary as Americans have become more likely to express identification with a party. As 2007 ended, an average of two Gallup Polls conducted in December showed 32.5% of Americans identifying as Democrats, 37.5% as independents, and 28.5% as Republicans. Now, the shift is evident. Identification with the Republican Party and with no party have slipped slightly, while identification with the Democratic Party has gained.

There are several other indications that the Democratic Party is riding high at the moment. First, the percentage of Americans with a favorable image of the Democratic Party (56%) is significantly higher than is the case for the Republican Party (41%).

In addition, a Feb. 8-10 USA Today/Gallup poll asked Americans to say whether three specific dimensions applied or did not apply to the two parties. The dimensions were: 1) can bring about the changes this country needs; 2) is able to manage the federal government effectively, and 3) has mostly honest and ethical members in Congress.

In each instance, the American public was more likely to say the characteristic applies to the Democratic Party than to the Republican Party. The biggest difference -- almost 20 points -- is on the dimension of bringing about change, perhaps not surprising given the strong emphasis on change in Barack Obama's campaign (and, to some degree, that of Hillary Clinton). Also, because there has been a Republican administration in the White House since 2001, it may be natural for Americans to say the Democratic Party would be most able to bring about change were its standard-bearer to move into the White House.

Bottom Line

The data reviewed here underscore the strong position of the Democratic Party at this point in the election year. A near-record number of Americans indicate that they currently identify as Democrats; the image of Democratic Party is much more favorable than that of the Republican Party; and Americans say the Democratic Party is better positioned to bring about change and is more likely to be able to manage the government effectively.