polls and trends

This is a look at a few polls.

• Here in Minnesota, Norm Coleman is slipping and Al Franken is rising in the latest MPR poll (pdf). Republicans have been incredibly smug about Coleman's 'strong' numbers, which have been around 50% favourability, which is lousy for an incumbent. The new poll shows Coleman at 40% against Franken's 43.2% in an election match-up, with an eerie 3.2% margin of error. Last May, MPR pegged it as 54/32 in favour of Coleman. Also in May, Coleman's favourability rating was 48%, down from 52% in 1/04. Now he's at 50% again. The Democratic senator from Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar, had a 66% favourability figure, which should worry Republicans.
  
• Bush's job ratings have dropped. The Fox News poll gives higher numbers for Bush than several other national polls, but now they have Bush's job rating at 33% with 60% disapproval. Fox's last survey in December was 36/57. In support, the late January NBC poll had Bush (very positive or somewhat positive) at 32% and disapproval (somewhat negative or very negative) at 57%. The "very negative" assessment was 40% of those polled, and has been 40% or above since last March.
• Fox has Congress at 22/66 (favourable/unfavourable) in late January. Wingnuts often point to these numbers with glee, since Congress is lower than Bush in the polls. However, Pew has Democrats in Congress at 31/53 in mid-January. The last poll for Congressional Republicans was in December at 26/68. So the Democratic Congresspeople are about as popular as Bush, with the Republican Congresspeople rated even lower than Bush. Further, I think it's safe to say that the dissatisfaction with Democrats is that they have not stood up to Bush enough, so it's hardly some kind of vindication.
• Harris shows in 2007 that 26% of the country identified themselves as Republicans, while 35% identified themselves as Democrats. This 9% lead also appeared in 2006, and is the strongest lead for the Democrats since 1998.
  
• Last week's NBC poll showed that the country wants Congress to set policy, not Bush. 21% said Bush should set policy, with 62% saying Congress should do that. So much for the unitary executive being popular. Only a neocon would see a mandate in those numbers. In December a CNN poll said that 53% thought it was good that Democrats controlled Congress, with 37% saying it was bad. Those low Congressional approval rating don't look so good for the wingnuts now, do they?

I'd also like to note that 28 Republican House members have to date announced retirement and will not seek re-election. Some very senior and important positions are in those 28. While this by no means signifies Democrats' picking up those seats, it is a substantial weakening of the GOP in the House. The Senate is less clear, which is why it's so important for Norm Coleman to get shown the door. If a Democrat wins the White House, there will be no more worries of over-riding Presidential vetoes, but the Republicans will still be able to gum up the works in the Senate. Without the White House to keep them in line, with a House more hostile to their agenda, and nervously looking at their re-elections, those Republican senators will be difficult to control and it will be very hard to make them dance to any kind of neocon tune. Their Party is fracturing all around them. The days when any idiot (such as Coleman) can get elected merely by being associated with the Bush Team are gone.

The Republicans have associated themselves with Bush heavily, and they are paying the political price. Meanwhile, Bush's agenda is frozen and all he can do is stop the Democrats from carrying out their own agenda. Sure, he can keep his wars going for the remainder of his term. They aren't helping him or his Party, though, so it's hard to see that as some kind of big achievement other than to keep the flow of tax dollars to defence contractors. Afghanistan is not going well, Pakistan is coming undone, Iraq could come apart any day now, and the world isn't chomping at the bit for a new war in Iran, Lebanon, or Syria. Nothing has gone the way Bush said it would, and the public is always supposed show to more patience with his schemes. And as the economy sours, change is going to look better and better. The only change Republicans are offering is the name of the person who will continue to carry out Bush's policies. The wealthy simply haven't stepped up to the plate and made the economy grow. They've instead off-shored American jobs. They haven't even contributed to the GOP, with Democrats (DSCC) rasing almost twice as much as the Republicans (NRSC) in December.