Tuesday, November 06, 2007

New poll shows unchanged attitudes

Despite desperate media spin on Iraq, over 60% of the American public says the Iraq effort is not worth fighting. The Republicans have completely missed the boat on Iraq. A decrease in troop deaths is not what will turn opinion around; it's far too late for that. The surge was supposed to provide the stability so the we could leave, not reduce troop deaths or allow "only" 300 civilans a month to be killed. Also, after years of 50,000 Iraqis a month fleeing the country, neocons cheer that about 3000 have returned over the last three months. Big deal. In Baghdad, the neighbourhoods are already segregated and walled off, and have been that way for some time. That's not a sign that people are getting along better; in fact, it proves the opposite. The only thing that the Iraqi government has agreed on lately is that Blackwater should go; hardly a bright spot for Bush. Quite simply, the Republicans have blown it and patience has worn out. If we left tomorrow they might be able to turn it around by the election, but we all know that won't happen.

Bush's popularity also remains at his usual 24%. I remember when he dropped to 40% and Republicans said that was 'good enough'. Now if he were work his way up to 30%, they would wildly cheer. And the Republicans still offer more of Bush's policies in their new candidates. Even spotty economic news is spun out of recognition. Payrolls increased, but those jobs were mostly in low-paying sectors. People have caught on that giving the wealty more money only means their jobs get outsourced to foreign countries, not improved by increased domestic investment. Just as the Reagan tax cuts were squandered by the wealthy in forced leveraged buyouts that produced mass layoffs, likewise Bush's cuts have been wasted.
70 % think we will be going the polls in '08 in the middle of a recession, which usually doesn't work in the Republicans' favour.

story from The New Zealand Herald

Americans want change

7:15AM Tuesday November 06, 2007

Sixty per cent of Americans want the country to change direction after nearly seven years of President George W. Bush's rule, a new poll released yesterday shows. Only 24 per cent thought the nation was on the right track.
More than six in 10 called the war in Iraq not worth fighting, and nearly two-thirds gave the economy negative marks. About seven in 10 saw an economic recession likely over the next year.
The poll indicated that the coming battle for the White House was shaping up to be another hard-fought, highly negative and closely decided contest, The Washington Post said.
At this point, Senator Hillary Clinton, the Democratic frontrunner, holds the edge in hypothetical match-ups with four of the top contenders for the Republican nomination. But her margins are far from comfortable against the two best-known Republican candidates, former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Senator John McCain, The Post said.
Not one of the leading candidates in either party has a favourable rating above 51 per cent in the new poll.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jus to let you know that there was another poll:
Results
49% no to Hillary
78% will choose Hillary over Obama
So what do you democrats think
You are just loosing it.........

Todd Dugdale said...

You are mixing the results of different polls. On top of that, it's far too early to take any primary race polling seriously. Your math is also fuzzy. You apparently arrive at the 78% figure by subtracting Obama's 21% support in the primary from 100.
The latest Rasmussen poll shows 40/21 Clinton/Obama. That is actually 39% *of Democrats* choosing Clinton over Obama. Your 49% is really the 45% negative opinion of Clinton *nationally*, meaning Democrats, Republicans, and all others.

Meanwhile the latest Gallup poll shows Bush with a 64% disaproval rating - that's not some fuzzy-math figure. It's also highly significant since, as I mentioned in the post, virtually all the Republican candidates are promising to merely continue Bush's unpopular policies. The GOP *front-runner*, Giuliani, is at 24% of *Republican voters* for the primary. And you think that sounds good. Using your fuzzy math, that means 76% of Republicans are opposed to their *own party's* front-runner. It seems you are the one that is "loosing it" {sic}. BTW, the word is "losing". "loosing" means you are setting something loose. Your math skills are on the same level as your language skills, it would seem.

Just for comparison, when Bill Clinton left office, he was in the mid-40's in the polls -- the level that Republicans said was "pretty good" when Bush hit that figure about two years ago. Bush is unlikely to break into the 30's before he leaves office. He also has another year's worth of scandals and ineptitude to break, along with the expected economic downturn that never helps the GOP. As I said, it's too early to make predictions, but I don't see much traction to be gained from the "God, guns, and gays" agenda, much less inflating fears of an Islamist takeover of America.

The Republicans have completely tied themselves to Iraq, an issue that over 60% of the public says is not worth fighting. That's a formidible barrier. Of the 40% left over, about 15% say we should be out within a year (election time). That's not "a drawdown of troops within a year", but "OUT within a year". The GOP only promises to stay in Iraq longer. I don't see a lot traction to be gained from that angle, either. And, oh yeah, the Republicans have been calling the vast majority of the public traitors for about two years or so now. That's a real winning strategy, too.
If Obama does win the nomination, you guys are screwed, because all of your efforts have been stirring up hatred of Clinton.