Iraq occupation still unpopular

I came across this war-supporter's blog and was surprised by two of his assertions about the Iraq occupation:

• public opposition to the war is not high
• being "opposed to the war" means you want to lose the war

So, it took me a few seconds to find the latest Gallup Poll. Surprisingly, it says the public is still opposed to the war, and have been for some time.

Only about one-third of Americans say the recent U.S. troop surge is making the situation in Iraq better, and the majority of Americans continue to say it was a mistake to send troops there in the first place. Although Americans are pessimistic about progress in the war, a slim majority still believe the United States is likely to win -- a slight improvement since mid-January, but similar to measures in early January and in 2006.

So I guess the issue is if you think that someone who says it was mistake to go into Iraq in the first place is "opposed" to the "war" (which is really an occupation at this point). However you slice the semantics of it, it sure isn't enthusiasm. People can't stop it, but they think it's a bad idea. And these people also think (by a slim majority, that is) that we will "win", so they obviously don't 'want to lose'.

Let's take a look at those numbers:

The public's assessment of the surge has not shown much change since August, but in April and July polls, Americans were slightly more negative in their assessments.

Hmmm. So 64% either think the surge isn't making much difference or think it's making things worse. But they somehow don't "oppose" it. And things have been this way for a while now.

Gallup has asked this question six times since the start of the war. Immediately after the United States invaded Baghdad in April 2003, more than 9 in 10 Americans said it was likely that the United States would win the war. When the question was next updated, in March 2006 -- three years after the start of the war -- opinions had become less positive, with just 54% saying victory was likely or certain. The results have been stable since that time.

Now, we all know that, to Republicans, any kind of rational, sober, objective assessment of the the Iraq effort is really just another way of saying that you want terrorists to kill your family and our soldiers to die in a bloodbath. Maybe that's why they are polling so low, by the way. Either way, I look at only 19% of the public being "certain we will win" as pretty lukewarm support. And that number isn't swinging upward, either.

When Petraeus made his report in September, Republicans expected a big swing in favour of the Iraq occupation and the surge. Right-wing blogs crowed that this was the proof America finally needed, and that Bush would be vindicated. The truth is that there is virtually no change at all in opinion:

28. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

	Yes	No	No opinion
	%	%	%
2007 Nov 2-4	58	39	3
2007 Oct 12-14	60	37	2
2007 Sep 14-16	58	41	1
2007 Sep 7-8	54	44	2
2007 Aug 3-5	57	42	2

As you can see, the Republicans picked up a statistically-insignificant 2% who merely said that it wasn't a mistake to go into Iraq. Not that they like how it's been handled, or are happy how it's going, but just that it wasn't a mistake. A statistically-significant 19% more think that it was a mistake to go into Iraq in the first place, and that number seems stable.

The surge was supposed to disarm the militas and bring political stability to Iraq. That's what the public bought, anyway. Instead we are arming the "good" terrorists and the political situation is unchanged. Provincial elections are still unscheduled. Basra is floundering. Kurdistan is not only seeing increasing violence, but Turkey is threatening an invasion. Corpses showing signs of torture show up on Baghdad streets every day. The country is segregated into walled communities. The water, health care, and electricity infrastructres have collapsed. Malnutrition is a serious crisis. Syria is kicking out Iraqis and they are returning to become homeless. Huge amounts of oil are disappearing without being accounted for. Iraqi prisons are places where torture is common. It's not only a mess, it's an insanely expensive mess.

So we see that the right-wing blogger alluded to at the start of the post is living in his own little world.

Let's look at Bush's approval numbers. From the Washington Post/ABC News poll (11/4):

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

-------- Approve --------   ------- Disapprove ------     No
           NET   Strongly   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Strongly   opinion
11/1/07      33       17         16      64       13         50        3
9/30/07      33       15         18      64       14         49        3
9/7/07       33       16         17      64       15         49        3 

The guy has strong disapproval from half of the country. Only half of his supporters are strong supporters. Almost four times as many strongly disapprove than "somewhat disapprove".

2. Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?

                 Right     Wrong     No
             direction   track   opinion
11/1/07           24        74        2
6/1/07            25        73        2
1/19/07           26        71        3 

...and Republicans are just offering to continue Bush's policies.