"Signs of Improvement": Sectarian killings sharply rise

In yet another rebuke to neocon claims that "the surge is working", reports show a sharp increase in sectarian killings in the past month. Recall that this was the problem the surge was ostensibly proposed to deal with, not Al-Qaeda's presence. Many of the recent bombings in Baghdad appear to be indiscriminate, rather than being targeted at Shia to provoke a Sunni uprising. The neocon talking point is that Al-Qaeda is at the root of the sectarian violence, by killing Shia in spectacular bombings designed to encourage their fellow Sunnis to exterminate Shias. Thus, by this logic, Bush's concentration on Al-Qaeda will (eventually) calm the sectarian violence by removing the impetus. The latest bombing in Baghdad, the soccer massacre, killed both Sunni and Shia; how would this serve Al-Qaeda's aims?
Could it possibly be that the current manhunt focus of the surge is simply an attempt to ignore the intractable problem of sectarian violence while concentrating on a purely military solution? This certainly takes the focus off of the civil war, which is unpopular and difficult to solve with a military confrontation scenario. The numbers of dead bodies piling up seems to indicate that the link between Al-Qaeda and sectarian violence is weak. Again, it appears the American and Iraqi military are simply playing games with the numbers and the war supporters are eager to lap this up.
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Up to 592 unidentified bodies were found dumped in different parts of Baghdad in the period between June 18 and July 18, 2007, according to figures based on media reports compiled by Iraq Slogger. Most of the bodies found by the police – an average of 20 a day – are bound, blindfolded and shot execution style, victims of sectarian violence carried out by both Sunni and Shi’ite death squads. Many also bear signs of torture or mutilation, according to medical sources in Baghdad. Despite official Iraqi and U.S. statements to the contrary, the reports indicate that the number of unidentified bodies in the capital has risen again to pre-surge levels over the last two months.

Shia/Sunni tensions existed long before Al-Qaeda arrived in Iraq. The "nation" of Iraq is an artifical construct, held together up until recently by Saddam's authoritarian rule. Our current approach is similar to trying to end the American Civil War by going after the Undergound Railroad and telling ourselves that this will relieve the tensions between North and South. Sadly, military force is the only card the Bush Administration knows how to play: more troops or less troops, take your pick. The profound political chasms that Iraq faces are seemingly left to the feeble and incompetent Iraqi government, which seems constantly on the verge of collapse or implosion. It is completely unclear how an Oil Law that gives the vast majority of Iraq's oil wealth away to multinational oil companies will help the political situation. These oil companies are allowed to "keep the books" and determine how much they will claim is due the Iraqis. Such mysterious accounting practises are familiar to anyone who has ever had an agent representing them, but somehow in this case, the benign oil companies will "play fair" with the Iraqis. And the money that goes to the government will not be siphoned off by multiple levels of Iraqi corruption, either. And upon receiving a check for their part of whatever is left over, the Iraqis will see that their multi-generational dispute is pointless and bad for business. Once again, the best-case scenario is being presented by the Bush Administration as the only likely outcome, and once again it is the only plan. This is the land of long memories and blood feuds, where the majority of Iraqis have seen their families tortured and massacred by the "other side" for years, where corruption is part of the cost of doing business, and where political tensions have been allowed to simmer (but never boil over) for decades. Five years of occupation have taught us nothing; it is the alien American culture trying impose it's foreign logic on a land and people who do not share it. But thirty pieces of silver will solve it all, at least in Bush's mind.
But, oh yes, let's not forget: the Iraqi government has established a commission to examine possible solutions to the political chasm. This is yet another of the "great successes" the "liberal media" wants to keep us from hearing about. If only the American public knew that a commission of Iraqi politicians was trying to come up with solutions to an intractable mess, they would certainly support Bush's 'plan', wouldn't they?

The only plan that the surge really rests on is throwing enough troops at Iraq until some kind of un-anticipated miracle occurs that will produce reconciliation. Getting Sunni and Shia militias to join against the "common enemy" of Al-Qaeda is only effective when Al-Qaeda is in that particular area. Once the surge "succeeds" in pushing A-Qaeda someplace else where the military isn't concentrated, the entire reason for the "reconciliation" vanishes, and we are back to the starting point. This is essentially what has happened in Basra with the British forces. But it won't happen to us because..... um, well, because the best possible outcome is the only likely outcome, remember? So cross your fingers and dig out those rabbit's feet, because the Decider has a big plan.