Marist: Obama strong in VA

In tandem with the last post involving OH, there is another Marist poll (2518 RV, ±2.0% MoE, 2/29 - 3/2) that shows Obama winning by double digits in the crucial swing state of Virginia. 

In a match-up with Romney, Obama prevails 52/35 (O +17). A slightly wider margin is shown in a match-up with Santorum (54/32). Likewise with Ron Paul (53/32).

Also, the overwhelming majority of VA Republican primary voters think Romney will be the eventual nominee:

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will be the Republican nominee to run against President Obama?

• Mitt Romney 78%
• Rick Santorum 9%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Ron Paul 3%
• None of the above 1%
• Undecided 5%

 Also instructive, given the polling results, is this question:

Which one of the following candidates do you think has the best chance to beat President Obama?

• Mitt Romney 65%
• Rick Santorum 14%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Ron Paul 4%
• None 3%
• Undecided 5%

I examined the electoral math here and here. 

Again, assuming CO and VA are won by Obama, he only needs one of four States in his column to reach 270 electoral votes: NC, PA, FL, or OH. 

Colorado is a toss-up. 

Previously, VA has been shown tied in one poll, and Obama leading in three others:

• PPP  (48/42, O +6)
• Quinnipiac (47/43, O +4)
• Rasmussen  (49/43, O +6)

Seeing a fourth poll with the strongest lead for Obama yet is very encouraging.

In spite of three polls showing a lead, the National Journal (highly conservative) calls this new Marist poll an "outlier":

The new poll appears to be an outlier -- a conclusion that is supported by other results from the poll showing President Obama with a massive, 17-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The Roanoke College poll, on the other hand, showed Romney leading Obama by one point.

I'm not sure how four polls showing Obama ahead can mean that he's not ahead.

With VA looking more solid than ever, regardless of what the lead really is, the importance of other polling showing Obama ahead strongly in OH and PA is huge. 

FL has been polled as a tie by Quinnipiac and PPP. It's basically a coin toss, and if the Republicans lose that coin flip, it's all over for them.

NC (15 EV) is also a tie, per PPP. Those 15 EV would take Obama over the finish line if CO and VA are going along with Obama. The Republicans have a very difficult path to 270 if they fail to win NC. It's a coin toss that the GOP really must win.

Obama's solid base of 239 EV, plus VA with 13 EV, leaves us at 252 EV. 

From there, Obama only needs 18 EV to win. 

NC + NH = 19 EV.

FL = 27 EV 

OH = 20 EV 

PA = 21 EV

CO + NV + NH = 19 EV 

CO + MO = 18 EV 

CO + AZ = 18 EV 

MO, AZ, NH, and NV are all currently showing as toss-ups, though the Republican candidate is likely to have an advantage in all of them. Still, dropping two of them would be deadly. 

A possible obstacle to these plans is Iowa, and its 7 EV. 

With Selzer's outlier poll showing Obama losing IA by two points to Romney, it may be the only one of Obama's 239 EV base that is not so solid. 

This makes CO (9 EV) even more important, in order to cover the possible loss of IA. 

Still, with PA and OH looking more solid, that path alone would allow Obama to drop CO, IA, NC, NV, NH, MO, FL, and AZ and still win. 

Likewise, winning FL alone would allow Obama to drop IA, CO, and all of the other close States - and still win.

NC and either OH or PA would put Obama over 270 without needing IA or CO.

Of course, this leaves a lot of ground for the Republicans to cover. Unlimited PAC money only gets you so far, and there are Senate races, too. Polling isn't showing a lot of good opportunities for Republicans at this point, and Maine is now a new question mark. It's possible that the GOP could end up with a net loss of Senate seats. They will certainly lose on net House seats.

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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:

Marist: Obama strong in OH

A new poll of Ohio, a crucial swing state in the 2012 election, shows Obama with a strong lead.

Marist released a poll (3079 RV, ±1.8% MoE, 2/29 - 3/2) showing Obama leading Romney 50/38 in OH. 

From the release:

Obama Leads Possible GOP Rivals
How does the field of Republican candidates fare in Ohio against President Obama?

• Obama leads Paul, 48% to 38%.  13% are undecided.
• 50% support Obama compared with 38% for Romney.  12% are undecided.
• 50% of registered voters back Obama compared with 36% for Santorum.  14% are undecided.
• Obama — 51% — leads Gingrich – 36%.  13% are undecided.

Obama manages 50% in the match-up, in spite of an even break in approval:

45% of registered voters in Ohio approve of how President Obama is doing in office.  45%, however, disapprove, and 9% are unsure.

So, Romney is unable to pick up 7% of OH registered voters who are unhappy with Obama. Does that sound like a strong candidate to you?

It's even worse when you look at the party ID breakdown:

Ohio voters are more likely to identify as independents than they were in a similar poll conducted in October 2008.  35% of registered voters now consider themselves to be independent compared with 31% at that time.  Republican identification has decreased from 31% to 26%, and Democrats are little changed.  They went from 37% in 2008 to 38% now.

“President Obama’s advantage over his potential challengers in Ohio is underscored by the fact that more voters support him over the GOP field than approve of his job performance,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

So Romney is drawing 12% above his base partisan support. And Obama is drawing 12% above his partisan base support. That would be okay if Romney's partisan base of support hadn't dropped 5% since the last election - which the Republicans lost. 

Obama now has a twelve-point lead over Romney in a State that Republicans cannot afford to lose. 

Gov. Kasich is slightly underwater in his "favourables": 40/43, with 17% unsure.

And this shows the real "value" of those right track/wrong track poll metrics:

Majority Says Nation on the Wrong Track

55% of Ohio registered voters think things in the nation are off on the wrong track while 40% believe they are moving in the right direction. Five percent are unsure.

If a majority of OH registered voters believe that we are on the "wrong track", how can Obama get 50% in a match-up? Maybe this is a stupid metric to judge the President's electoral chances by. Maybe it reflects dissatisfaction with Republicans as much as it reflects a liability for Obama. 

Also, the poll shows a strong lead for the Democratic candidate in the Senate race:

If Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown were to face off against Republican challenger Josh Mandel, what are Mandel’s chances of victory? As the contest stands, Brown leads Mandel, 47% to 37%. 16% are undecided.

Ohio has 20 EV, and is a "must win" state for the Republicans. As was discussed previously,  if Obama wins OH, he is virtually guaranteed to win the needed 270 electoral votes (EV) for victory - as things stand now.

Electoral math:

Republicans must also mind their defences in MO, NV and AZ, as they are only narrowly going to the Republicans currently. They certainly can't afford to see these base States slip away, especially since Texas is only in their favour by 7 points. Texas is the "crown jewel" of the Republican election strategy. Without TX and its 34 EV, there is no hope for a Republican to win the White House. It's still solid for them now, but it might be a swing state in 2016.

Assuming Obama can win CO and VA, he then only needs to win one of these States: PA, OH, NC, or FL. We already see him ahead in OH.

Colorado looks close, and a recent poll set VA as a virtual tie. Both add up to 23 EV. Winning OH or PA would mostly offset losing the coin flip twice in CO and VA. 

Winning both OH and PA would mean that Obama would probably win the national election. 

It's a good thing that Obama is leading in both of those States, then.

Rasmussen gave leads to Obama in VA (49/43 O +6).

Republicans are in bad position at the moment. They have to basically win three coin flips in a row: CO, FL, NC. If they lose one of those, Obama wins. 

NH is another coin flip, but only has 4 EV. It might come into play if the Republicans win CO and VA, but lose PA and OH. 

This is why any polling of CO, FL, or NC will be closely watched.

Obama has a solid base of 239 EV right here:

CA (55), OR (7), WA (11), NM (5), MN (10), MI (17), IL (21), NY (31), MA (12), VT (3), ME (4), RI (4), DC (3), MD (10), DE (3), NJ (15), IA (7), WI (10), CT (7), HI (4)

Previous polling for OH:

PPP's November 2011 polling shows Obama with a 9-point lead in OH.
In 2/12 polling by PPP,  Obama leads by 6 points.
Rasmussen, for what it's worth, shows Obama with a 4 point lead over Romney and tying Santorum.

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 Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections: