In tandem with the last post involving OH, there is another Marist poll (2518 RV, ±2.0% MoE, 2/29 - 3/2) that shows Obama winning by double digits in the crucial swing state of Virginia.
In a match-up with Romney, Obama prevails 52/35 (O +17). A slightly wider margin is shown in a match-up with Santorum (54/32). Likewise with Ron Paul (53/32).
Also, the overwhelming majority of VA Republican primary voters think Romney will be the eventual nominee:
Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will be the Republican nominee to run against President Obama?
- Mitt Romney 78%
- Rick Santorum 9%
- Newt Gingrich 5%
- Ron Paul 3%
- None of the above 1%
- Undecided 5%
Also instructive, given the polling results, is this question:
Which one of the following candidates do you think has the best chance to beat President Obama?
- Mitt Romney 65%
- Rick Santorum 14%
- Newt Gingrich 9%
- Ron Paul 4%
- None 3%
- Undecided 5%
Again, assuming CO and VA are won by Obama, he only needs one of four States in his column to reach 270 electoral votes: NC, PA, FL, or OH.
Colorado is a toss-up.
Previously, VA has been shown tied in one poll, and Obama leading in three others:
- PPP (48/42, O +6)
- Quinnipiac (47/43, O +4)
- Rasmussen (49/43, O +6)
Seeing a fourth poll with the strongest lead for Obama yet is very encouraging.
In spite of three polls showing a lead, the National Journal (highly conservative) calls this new Marist poll an "outlier":
The new poll appears to be an outlier -- a conclusion that is supported by other results from the poll showing President Obama with a massive, 17-point lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The Roanoke College poll, on the other hand, showed Romney leading Obama by one point.
I'm not sure how four polls showing Obama ahead can mean that he's not ahead.
With VA looking more solid than ever, regardless of what the lead really is, the importance of other polling showing Obama ahead strongly in OH and PA is huge.
FL has been polled as a tie by Quinnipiac and PPP. It's basically a coin toss, and if the Republicans lose that coin flip, it's all over for them.
NC (15 EV) is also a tie, per PPP. Those 15 EV would take Obama over the finish line if CO and VA are going along with Obama. The Republicans have a very difficult path to 270 if they fail to win NC. It's a coin toss that the GOP really must win.
Obama's solid base of 239 EV, plus VA with 13 EV, leaves us at 252 EV.
From there, Obama only needs 18 EV to win.
NC + NH = 19 EV.
FL = 27 EV
OH = 20 EV
PA = 21 EV
CO + NV + NH = 19 EV
CO + MO = 18 EV
CO + AZ = 18 EV
MO, AZ, NH, and NV are all currently showing as toss-ups, though the Republican candidate is likely to have an advantage in all of them. Still, dropping two of them would be deadly.
A possible obstacle to these plans is Iowa, and its 7 EV.
With Selzer's outlier poll showing Obama losing IA by two points to Romney, it may be the only one of Obama's 239 EV base that is not so solid.
This makes CO (9 EV) even more important, in order to cover the possible loss of IA.
Still, with PA and OH looking more solid, that path alone would allow Obama to drop CO, IA, NC, NV, NH, MO, FL, and AZ and still win.
Likewise, winning FL alone would allow Obama to drop IA, CO, and all of the other close States - and still win.
NC and either OH or PA would put Obama over 270 without needing IA or CO.
Of course, this leaves a lot of ground for the Republicans to cover. Unlimited PAC money only gets you so far, and there are Senate races, too. Polling isn't showing a lot of good opportunities for Republicans at this point, and Maine is now a new question mark. It's possible that the GOP could end up with a net loss of Senate seats. They will certainly lose on net House seats.
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Pollster ratings from fivethirtyeight.com, based on 2010 elections:
