Minnesota's 8th CD now a "tossup"

Charlie Cook changed the status of MN-8 from "Lean Republican" to "Tossup" in his latest ratings.

This means trouble for freshman Tea Party Rep. Chip Cravaack. Already in a D+3 district, and only winning election by 1% (48/47) - 4400 votes, he was not a favourite for re-election. He's accomplished nothing for his district, and spent most of his time in NH when not in DC.

Given the latest polling by PPP in MN that shows strong "buyer's remorse" over electing Republicans to the State Legislature, I don't see a strong "incumbent advantage" for Cravaack. His strong backing of Bachmann hasn't won over Independents, as the same polling shows that Bachmann is very unpopular outside of her narrow 16% "very conservative" base and gerrymandered district.

His big issue, aside from rabid anti-choice positions, was the Clean Water Act, and most particularly H.R 5088. This was the legislation introduced by Oberstar that Cravaack railed against. Cravaack can claim a small victory by tying it up in committee, but that was merely a holding action. That fight is over, and he can't claim to have done anything for the economy by voting the Party line on legislation that had no chance of passing the Senate. His votes were completely rubber-stamp in line with instructions from the Party, so it's hard to say that he's representing his constituents. A vote for Cravaack is essentially a vote for Boehner, because that's who tells Cravaack how to vote.

Meanwhile, Cook rates Democrat Tim Walz's seat as "Likely Democratic", though it's R+1. He held on to his seat against Randy Demmer, in spite of high wingnut hopes, and won by 5% in a great Republican year. Now Allen Quist and Mike Parry will battle over the chance to take on Walz in 2012. It will probably be Parry, who is the typical angry, crazy Tea Party-inspired kind of guy that the electorate is tired of. Quist is a really boring Religious Right bozo who embraced the Tea Party late in the game, and who is notable for failing to win his bid for Governor many years ago. If Quist wins, he'd be one of the few cases of the MN GOP recycling a loser, and he's probably only being considered because the MN Republican Party has been taken completely over by the evangelicals.

There hasn't been a dramatic shift to the Left in Minnesota, as much as there's been a massive and broad-based shudder of revulsion over what the Republicans have turned themselves into. And nothing right now is looking like they are backing away from their image of enraged, hateful, over-the-top, completely interchangeable nuts who all say the exact same thing.