New MN polling is bad news for the wingnuts

New polling is out by PPP on Minnesota. They last polled the State in June.

• Dayton, Generic Legislative Ballot, SSM Amendment
• Presidential race, Republican caucus 
• Bachmann, Pawlenty, Klobuchar 

Quick summary: Gov. Dayton is popular, Democrats lead by 9 on the GLB, and the SSM Amendment is close.
Gingrich leads the (non-binding) Republican caucus, and loses to Obama by 15. Romney loses to Obama by 10 points. Bachmann and Pawlenty are not popular at all, with Bachmann seeing particularly bad statewide numbers. Klobuchar is a lock for re-election.

Just how bad are Bachmann's numbers? PPP's Tom Jensen reports:

Voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann by a 34-57 margin, including a 29-59 rating among Independents. 57% of Minnesota voters also say Bachmann should not run for reelection to the House of Representatives while just 37% think she should. 59% of Independents and even 20% of Republicans say Bachmann should not run for reelection.

 So it's bad, then.
Bachmann wins strong approval (85%) from those voters who consider themselves "very conservative", but they are only 16% of the electorate. Those who say they are "somewhat conservative" favour her with a less-impressive 56% support. Pretty weak for your "base". This "somewhat conservative" category holds 22% of the electorate. That's a total of 38% of the electorate with any kind of significant appeal for her. Moderates break highly unfavourably against her by more than 4-to-1. In other words, she has no appeal outside of that narrow conservative demographic.
This doesn't say anything about her chances of holding on to her House seat. The re-districting is still up in the air. Currently, Bachmann is living in the potential new district that includes St.Paul, and she has no hope of winning there. If the re-districting gives her her old district back, then her chances look good. But that district would be an isolated pocket of concentrated wingnuts that Bachmann could have trouble appealing to as time goes by.

One thing is sure: she has no hope outside of that district or in the State as a whole. Moderates, by more than 3-to-1, say she should not run for re-election. 22% of Minnesotans who voted for McCain in 2008 also do not want her to run again. Even worse, a majority of all age demographics say the same thing. And 59% of Independent voters don't want her to run for the House a fourth time, either.
Basically, the State of Minnesota is really tired of her.

The days when wingnuts could pretend that Bachmann is some kind of insurgent truth-teller who would "blow the minds" of the "urban liberals" are GONE. She is a punchline, not an evangelist for the conservative cause in Minnesota. She's done nothing for her district. And, from the St. Cloud Times:

Bachmann missed almost 59 percent of House roll-call votes in the third quarter of 2011, and more than 91 percent of votes in the fourth quarter.

At some point, the MN GOP will realise that she is not the best face for their cause, that she is a liability, and a very expensive candidate that sucks up donations that could be better spent elsewhere. Right now, though, the MN GOP is in the thrall of the evangelical Religious Right, and Bachmann is their poster child.

For the DFL, it is probably wiser not to contest her strongly, and focus instead on regaining the 8th CD from Cravaak, and defending Walz from a very "insider" challenge. Let Bachmann be the face of the MN GOP, and remind MN voters constantly of what the alternative to the DFL is.

As far as Pawlenty:

Q9 Would you support Tim Pawlenty for statewide
office in the future, or not?
Would support Pawlenty for statewide office .. 39%
Would not........................................................ 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

That "would not" figure includes 50% of the 65+ age demographic, 15% of Republicans, 52% of women, 56% of moderates, and 52% of Independents. He only wins about 2/3 of that conservative 38% on this question, which is not strong when looking at your base. Remember, Pawlenty primarily won office by portraying himself as a moderate who down-played his evangelical beliefs. As the Tea Party rose, he transformed himself into a strong 10th Amendment advocate, a vitriolic hater of Obama, and an unquestioning pawn of the Religious Right. Look where it got him. Only 68% of "very conservative" MN voters want him to run for statewide office.