Cook Report 3/23

The latest House Race Chart from Charlie Cook is up. Let's look at the changes from 3/15: 

• NY-1 moved from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic".
• NY-23 moved from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Republican".
• NY-4 moved from safe to "Likely Democratic".
• NY-26 moved from "Democratic Toss Up" to safe.
• NY-9 moved from "Republican Toss Up" to safe.
• NY-11 moved from safe to "Lean Republican".
• NY-13 moved from "Lean Republican" to "Republican Toss Up".
• NY-19 moved from "Lean Republican" to safe.
• NY-27 moved from safe to "Lean Republican".
• NY-2 and NY-22 moved from safe to "Likely Republican".
• NY-24 moved from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Democratic".
• NY-29 moved from "Likely Republican" to safe. 

As far as Minnesota House seats go, Chip Cravaack (MN-8) is still rated as a "Republican Toss Up", John Kline (MN-2) is still rated as "Likely Republican". Collin Peterson (MN-7) is still rated as "Likely Democratic". Bachmann (MN-6), Erik Paulsen (MN-3), Keith Ellison (MN-5), Betty McCollum (MN-4) and Walz (MN-1) are still considered safe.

Cook Report 3/8

The latest House Race Chart from Charlie Cook is up. Here are the changes:

• NY-22 has dropped off the radar. On 3/5 it was "Likely Democratic". This means that the seat isn't even in slight jeopardy.
• NY-26 moved downward to "Democratic Toss-up", while NY-25 moved from "Republican Toss-up" to "Lean Democratic".
• AR-4 has moved from "Lean Republican" to "Likely Republican".
• NY-19 and NY-20 have moved downward from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican".
• MI-3 is now "Likely Republican", indicating a slight drop from safe.

Chip Cravaack (MN-8) is still deemed a  "Republican Toss-up", and John Kline (MN-2) is still deemed "Likely Republican". Collin Peterson (MN-7) is still considered to be "Likely Democratic". Bachmann (MN-6) and Walz (MN-1) aren't listed, which means that their seats are considered safe. 

Walz's case is particularly interesting, since the MN GOP is involved in a contested primary race over who will get the chance to lose in 2012. Mike Parry, who has important positions in the Republican-controlled MN Senate, is vying with evangelist retread Allen Quist for the seat. 

Quist lost his race for Governor several years ago, and usually that marks one as a permanent loser in the MN GOP. Now, with the evangelicals having successfully taken over the MN GOP, Quist is getting a second chance due to his evangelical cred. For Quist, it's a last chance. 

Parry, however, has a lot to lose. Having won a special election against the execrable Sen. Dick Day, he won a full MN Senate term in 2010 - 54/46. It would be really nice to see Parry lose the race and become marked as a loser by his own Party. I am really hoping that Parry wins the primary, because the MN GOP doesn't seem to have any money to spend on campaigns, and the evangelicals have been very stingy with their money of late. All of the evangelical money seems to be going into the campaign for the Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage, with actual races left as an afterthought. 

If Quist wins the primary (and goes on to lose the race for the seat), it will be a huge warning signal that the evangelical Party takeover has big negative electoral consequences. I would think that the DFL would like the MN GOP to continue down the "social conservative " road. So, if Parry wins (and goes on to lose the race for the seat), the evangelicals can scream that their guy would have won. It would strengthen their hold on the Party, which is good for the DFL. And Parry's career would take a permanent hit, which is just a bonus for the DFL.

Minnesota's 8th CD now a "tossup"

Charlie Cook changed the status of MN-8 from "Lean Republican" to "Tossup" in his latest ratings.

This means trouble for freshman Tea Party Rep. Chip Cravaack. Already in a D+3 district, and only winning election by 1% (48/47) - 4400 votes, he was not a favourite for re-election. He's accomplished nothing for his district, and spent most of his time in NH when not in DC.

Given the latest polling by PPP in MN that shows strong "buyer's remorse" over electing Republicans to the State Legislature, I don't see a strong "incumbent advantage" for Cravaack. His strong backing of Bachmann hasn't won over Independents, as the same polling shows that Bachmann is very unpopular outside of her narrow 16% "very conservative" base and gerrymandered district.

His big issue, aside from rabid anti-choice positions, was the Clean Water Act, and most particularly H.R 5088. This was the legislation introduced by Oberstar that Cravaack railed against. Cravaack can claim a small victory by tying it up in committee, but that was merely a holding action. That fight is over, and he can't claim to have done anything for the economy by voting the Party line on legislation that had no chance of passing the Senate. His votes were completely rubber-stamp in line with instructions from the Party, so it's hard to say that he's representing his constituents. A vote for Cravaack is essentially a vote for Boehner, because that's who tells Cravaack how to vote.

Meanwhile, Cook rates Democrat Tim Walz's seat as "Likely Democratic", though it's R+1. He held on to his seat against Randy Demmer, in spite of high wingnut hopes, and won by 5% in a great Republican year. Now Allen Quist and Mike Parry will battle over the chance to take on Walz in 2012. It will probably be Parry, who is the typical angry, crazy Tea Party-inspired kind of guy that the electorate is tired of. Quist is a really boring Religious Right bozo who embraced the Tea Party late in the game, and who is notable for failing to win his bid for Governor many years ago. If Quist wins, he'd be one of the few cases of the MN GOP recycling a loser, and he's probably only being considered because the MN Republican Party has been taken completely over by the evangelicals.

There hasn't been a dramatic shift to the Left in Minnesota, as much as there's been a massive and broad-based shudder of revulsion over what the Republicans have turned themselves into. And nothing right now is looking like they are backing away from their image of enraged, hateful, over-the-top, completely interchangeable nuts who all say the exact same thing.

New MN polling is bad news for the wingnuts

New polling is out by PPP on Minnesota. They last polled the State in June.

• Dayton, Generic Legislative Ballot, SSM Amendment
• Presidential race, Republican caucus 
• Bachmann, Pawlenty, Klobuchar 

Quick summary: Gov. Dayton is popular, Democrats lead by 9 on the GLB, and the SSM Amendment is close.
Gingrich leads the (non-binding) Republican caucus, and loses to Obama by 15. Romney loses to Obama by 10 points. Bachmann and Pawlenty are not popular at all, with Bachmann seeing particularly bad statewide numbers. Klobuchar is a lock for re-election.

Just how bad are Bachmann's numbers? PPP's Tom Jensen reports:

Voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann by a 34-57 margin, including a 29-59 rating among Independents. 57% of Minnesota voters also say Bachmann should not run for reelection to the House of Representatives while just 37% think she should. 59% of Independents and even 20% of Republicans say Bachmann should not run for reelection.

 So it's bad, then.
Bachmann wins strong approval (85%) from those voters who consider themselves "very conservative", but they are only 16% of the electorate. Those who say they are "somewhat conservative" favour her with a less-impressive 56% support. Pretty weak for your "base". This "somewhat conservative" category holds 22% of the electorate. That's a total of 38% of the electorate with any kind of significant appeal for her. Moderates break highly unfavourably against her by more than 4-to-1. In other words, she has no appeal outside of that narrow conservative demographic.
This doesn't say anything about her chances of holding on to her House seat. The re-districting is still up in the air. Currently, Bachmann is living in the potential new district that includes St.Paul, and she has no hope of winning there. If the re-districting gives her her old district back, then her chances look good. But that district would be an isolated pocket of concentrated wingnuts that Bachmann could have trouble appealing to as time goes by.

One thing is sure: she has no hope outside of that district or in the State as a whole. Moderates, by more than 3-to-1, say she should not run for re-election. 22% of Minnesotans who voted for McCain in 2008 also do not want her to run again. Even worse, a majority of all age demographics say the same thing. And 59% of Independent voters don't want her to run for the House a fourth time, either.
Basically, the State of Minnesota is really tired of her.

The days when wingnuts could pretend that Bachmann is some kind of insurgent truth-teller who would "blow the minds" of the "urban liberals" are GONE. She is a punchline, not an evangelist for the conservative cause in Minnesota. She's done nothing for her district. And, from the St. Cloud Times:

Bachmann missed almost 59 percent of House roll-call votes in the third quarter of 2011, and more than 91 percent of votes in the fourth quarter.

At some point, the MN GOP will realise that she is not the best face for their cause, that she is a liability, and a very expensive candidate that sucks up donations that could be better spent elsewhere. Right now, though, the MN GOP is in the thrall of the evangelical Religious Right, and Bachmann is their poster child.

For the DFL, it is probably wiser not to contest her strongly, and focus instead on regaining the 8th CD from Cravaak, and defending Walz from a very "insider" challenge. Let Bachmann be the face of the MN GOP, and remind MN voters constantly of what the alternative to the DFL is.

As far as Pawlenty:

Q9 Would you support Tim Pawlenty for statewide
office in the future, or not?
Would support Pawlenty for statewide office .. 39%
Would not........................................................ 51%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

That "would not" figure includes 50% of the 65+ age demographic, 15% of Republicans, 52% of women, 56% of moderates, and 52% of Independents. He only wins about 2/3 of that conservative 38% on this question, which is not strong when looking at your base. Remember, Pawlenty primarily won office by portraying himself as a moderate who down-played his evangelical beliefs. As the Tea Party rose, he transformed himself into a strong 10th Amendment advocate, a vitriolic hater of Obama, and an unquestioning pawn of the Religious Right. Look where it got him. Only 68% of "very conservative" MN voters want him to run for statewide office.