Rasmussen struggling with their narrative

Rasmussen's Presidential approval ratings are slipping away from the wingnut narrative.

In December, Rasmussen was able to regularly scrounge up around 45% "strong disapproval" for Obama. In January, though they are struggling to find 40% "strong disapproval". December began with 43% SD, and steadily moved up to a peak of 49% just before Christmas. That's also when Rasmussen chose to do their match-ups, showing Obama down six(!). This result was a glaring outlier among pollster, but it was their last chance to get some ridiculous numbers out there before moving into 2012 - when "things changed".

And a president who struggled to get 1/5 "strong approval" in December now is moving into 1/4 SA. And only a bare majority of 51% now disapprove of Obama (1/28) in Rasmussen's crazy, skewed, right-wing sampling world.

This entire "strong approval / strong disapproval" thing was implemented by Rasmussen when Obama took office. Previously, this category didn't matter to Rasmussen. But when Obama took over from Bush, it was suddenly very important how intensely people disliked Obama. It's part of his whole "Democrats don't really vote" narrative, which influences his "likely voter" screen. It's weird how, two years before an election, Rasmussen can determine who is "likely" to turn out. Even at eight months out (now), it would be considered too unreliable to employ LV screens by most pollsters. By manipulating this LV screen and his "panel" of hand-picked internet voters, he can pretty much come up with any numbers he wishes to. But he's accurate! Sure, except for 2010, and only when you get within 40 days of an election. Outside of that 40-day window, he's free to publish results that are contrary to everyone else. Once inside the 40-day window, "things change" and the wingnuts are left to despair that their hero pollster has been "taken in by the liberal media".

On 12/28/11 Rasmussen released a poll that I will hold him to: Romney defeats Obama 45/39.  +6R

On 1/4/12, Rasmussen says it's a tie: 42/42.

On 1/10/12, Rasmussen gives Obama a 3-point lead: 41/44.  +3D

Now, a 3-point lead is simply Rasmussen hedging his bets. That's within the margin of error, so he can easily shift it back to appease wingnuts. But the slow erosion of "strong disapproval", and the slow growth of the "strong approval" numbers show that Rasmussen is unwilling to go too far out on a limb for the Republicans right now. And that should make Republicans nervous.

After more than four years (including the 2008 election campaign) of constantly painting Obama as dangerous / inept / too powerful / too weak, only a bare majority actually disapproves of Obama in Rasmussen's sampling. It still hasn't dawned on the wingnuts that Obama isn't hated and that their "magic words" (socialist, Muslim, worst President, etc.) aren't working anymore. But the most right-wing national pollster in America is figuring that out, because his reputation was already damaged in 2010 and he needs to be taken seriously. Otherwise, his speaker's fees dry up.

UPDATE 1/30/12:
Rasmussen now shows Obama with a bare majority favourable: 51% approve, 47 disapprove.
The 37% "strong disapproval" is more in line with June '11.