Once we relied on Russia and China to keep each other in check, much as we once relied on Hussein's Iraq to keep Iran in check. With Russia and China on the Security Council, the SCO would instead prove a powerful check on PNAC's ambitions for a glorious "American Century" where the rest of the world marvels at our power and gladly bends over at our every whim. In Pakistan, it's looking like our puppet Musharraf is going to lose power due to democracy. India, while friendly, stopped meekly bowing to the U.S. long ago. And Iran, the current scapegoat for everything wrong with the world, no longer has Iraq to worry about. With the exception of China, all of these players in the SCO are at least nominal democracies, which gives the lie to Bush and other Republican's fantasy that democracy will pave the way to the easy triumph of our foreign policies across the globe. Also, with the possible exception of Iran, all of the countries in the SCO are nuclear powers.
China has rapidly developed into a strong naval power while the U.S. is still committed to the defence of Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and to a lesser extent Australia and New Zealand. China has no such commitments on the other side of the planet from them as we do. The costs of our military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan are kept "off the books" largely due to the sale of debt to China, ironically financing their military and industrial development with the interest. The U.S. is the only serious impediment to China's hegemony, and our financial and industrial resources are increasingly being put in China's hands. Putting financial or trade sanctions on China would be suicide for the U.S. American companies have been falling over themselves to close plants at home and move them to China. While taking a financial hit doing so, China could easily cause a collapse of the dollar by dumping their holdings on the market. Such a move would undoubtedly persuade several economies to move to the euro as the reserve currency, which would be an unmitigated catastrophe for the U.S. economy.
Russia, too, has seen a comeback due to its energy resources. Sanctions against Russia would cut off Europe's energy supplies. While not a formidible threat to take on the U.S. itself militarily, Russia remains a regional military superpower with a more advanced military than its Eastern European neighbours our its former client states to the south. They are also free of any military commitments on the other side of the globe now that Cuba is on its own. For decades, Russia has been treated to a condescending approach from the U.S. and, as a result, has failed to back American efforts and regional interests.
Meanwhile, the U.S. pours several dozens of millions into Israel every single day, mostly in the form of "loans" that are forgiven before they are due for re-payment. None of the SCO countries have commitments like this. The two other major recipients of our foreign aid, Egypt and Colombia, do nothing to enhance our economic or military interests and are among the best examples of "democracy" gone wrong.
What reason do we have to believe that a nation such as Iraq, when "stabilised", will be a strong ally of the U.S. and back our foreign policy interests? With sanctions, and later, invasion and hapless occupation, the U.S. has reduced a modern nation with a high standard of living to a disaster state without electrical or water delivery infrastructure, much less security. How many of those tortured in Iraqi prisons by a puppet government controlled from the White House will see the U.S. as a friend? How many of those forced from the "progress" in Iraq by fleeing to the "enemy" state of Syria will view the U.S. as a source for "good"? Once the dollars stop flowing from the American taxpayer into the pockets of corrupt Iraqi politicians, how many will continue to follow the script they are handed?
Or will Iraqis look to the SCO as a natural ally, an alliance free of the negative associations with the U.S?
The best possible outcome is the only likely outcome in Bush-land. The rest of us, however, had better start to look beyond slogans and flag-waving down the road at what awaits us when the world stops seeing us as the solution, and instead as the problem.
Russia to resume Cold War bomber flights
By Adrian Blomfield in Moscow and agencies
Last Updated: 5:30pm BST 17/08/2007
Russia will immediately resume long-range strategic bomber flights on a "permanent" basis, ending a 15-year suspension of the missions, President Vladimir Putin has said.
Mr Putin said a halt in long-range bombers' flights after the Soviet collapse had affected Russia's security as other nations had continued such missions - a oblique reference to the US.
"I have made a decision to resume regular flights of Russian strategic aviation," he said.
"Starting today, such tours of duty will be conducted regularly and on a strategic scale.
"Our pilots have been grounded for too long; they are happy to start a new life."
Soviet bombers routinely flew such missions to areas from which nuclear-tipped cruise missiles could be launched at the United States. But that stopped in the post-Soviet economic meltdown.
In Washington, a State Department Spokesman said the US was not troubled by the decision.
"It's interesting. We certainly are not in the kind of posture we were with what used to be the Soviet Union. It's a different era. If Russia feels as though they want to take some of these old aircraft out of mothballs and get them flying again, that's their decision."
Yes, arrogance is always the best defence. The best possible outcome is the only likely outcome. Is there any real reason to worry?
Mr Putin's comments came as he and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, attended an unprecedented show of joint military force amid fears that the Russian leader is trying to turn an increasingly powerful central Asian alliance into a second Warsaw Pact.
The United States will be anxiously watching the military manoeuvres - held under the auspices of the six-member Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) - from afar after its request to send observers was rejected.
Washington has plenty of reasons to be uneasy. Founded in 2001, the SCO, which includes the four central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as well as China and Russia, is rapidly gaining a reputation as an anti-Western organisation.
That image seems to be one that Mr Putin is happy to cultivate. Analysts say that the Russian president believes the organisation is emerging as a bloc that is rapidly becoming powerful enough to stand up to the West.
Russia's most pro-government newspapers, often used by the Kremlin as propaganda vehicles, yesterday proclaimed the arrival of an "anti-Nato" alliance and a "Warsaw Pact 2". At the annual SCO summit in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek yesterday, Mr Putin praised the alliance's growing strength. "Year after year the SCO becomes a more significant factor in strengthening security and stability in the central Asian region," he said.
In a thinly disguised swipe at Washington, which mirrored earlier attacks on American "unilateralism" and "diktat", he added: "We are convinced that any attempts to resolve global and regional problems alone are useless."
For the most part, the summit's agenda concentrated on promoting energy co-operation in central Asia, whose vast resources have elevated the region's geopolitical importance.
The West has been desperate to strengthen its presence in the area but has begun to fall behind both Russia and China in a race for influence that has been compared to the 19th century Great Game, when Britain and Russia competed for control of the region.
Yet the SCO has wider ambitions. Pakistan, India and Mongolia all want to join - as does Iran, whose president, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, attended the summit as guest of honour, a title bound to rile Washington. Iranian membership of the SCO would pose an enormous headache for the United States. Like Nato, its treaty states that an attack on one member is regarded as an attack on all, raising the prospect that the United States could find itself aligned against both Russia and China if it invaded Iran. Yet, for all Mr Putin's posturing, most analysts believe that an underlying antagonism between the member states means that the SCO is far from cohesive, a charge that reduces its chances to be effective.
Thrown together for the moment by mutual expediency, Russia and China have historically distrusted each other. Beijing, which plays host to the Olympic Games next summer, has much less interest in antagonising the United States and would almost certainly block Iran's accession to the club.
Similarly, the central Asian nations are wary of the two regional superpowers - although, for the time being, the tolerance of Beijing and Moscow for their autocratic ways is more attractive than the demands to democratise made by the United States.
Even so, today's exercises will serve as a reminder that the global balance of power is shifting.
For the first time ever, China is deploying troops, tanks and aircraft on a combined mission abroad.
The exercises, being held in the Russian region of Chelyabinsk, involve 6,500 troops, heavy weapons and combat aircraft.
While the goal of the mission is to simulate the capture of a city held by terrorists, the sight of Russian and Chinese troops marching together will give observers in Washington pause for reflection.
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