New polling in MN Governor race

  SurveyUSA -- which has a history of underestimating Democratic candidates in MN -- has released a new statewide poll. 

The results aren't very good for MNGOP. The party favorite is Gazelka, and he trails Walz by 5 points. It's also interesting that 41% have no opinion of him, so his 37% statewide share is mostly just people who will vote for any Republican against Walz. None of MNGOP's candidates have a "favorable" rating of 20% or more, while Walz is above water by 8 points (45/37). 

 Polling only slightly better than Gazelka is Jensen. Jensen is a physician who has spread a lot of misinformation about COVID, and has supported anti-vax and anti-mandate positions emphatically.

Jensen on Wikipedia

 Jensen is the originator of the lie that hospitals get more money if they diagnose a patient with COVID. While he claims to support vaccines in general, he stipulates that the COVID vaccine is "not a vaccine". He further promises to "ban'" non-existent workplace vaccine mandates. 

 Jensen still trails Walz by 3 points, and 41% have no opinion of him. He has only 18% of voters with a favorable opinion of him, in spite of his national profile. 

 This is the lunacy of MNGOP. Minnesota is heading into an election this year with no current lockdowns, no vaccine mandates, no statewide mask mandates, declining cases, and a 78% vaccination rate. And the vast majority of those now dying in this pandemic are now MNGOP's voters. Yet, their plan is to run on the pandemic. 

 MNGOP has been highly consistent with their proposed one-step plan to address the pandemic: do nothing. 

 They have put forward no solutions, no concrete steps, no alternatives. They bitterly attacked the lockdown, opposing it in the Legislature. While they once argued for a lockdown for only a few (urban) counties, they simultaneously argued against the lockdown in the metro, as well. They seem to think that people don't move between counties. Even when the lockdowns existed, MNGOP cheered businesses that ignored the measure. They cheered people ignoring mask mandates, even mandates imposed by a particular business. They made heroes out of people being kicked out of stores for refusing to wear a mask. Their candidates held indoor, mask-free campaign events during the lockdown. 

 Even when the pandemic moved into their rural voting base, their entire plan was "ignore it". Over and over, the public was treated to glib philosophical takes like "Everybody dies" by Republicans. 

 But, by the time the election rolls around, most restrictions will have faded. "Long COVID" will plague their base, along with huge medical bills that wipe out generational wealth. Unvaccinated Republican voters will continue to get sick and even die, but the numbers will be small (and local) enough that they won't justify statewide or even county-wide action. Mask mandates will probably be curtailed. 

 Basically, MNGOP will be running against the idea of doing anything for the next pandemic. The State will be following their plan of doing nothing. How does this play into the hands of a candidate like Jensen who promises to do nothing to address any pandemic?

 MNGOP's strength is the same as it was in 2020: a rabid pro-Trump base. They will fail to gain any support from opposition to measures taken to address the pandemic, because the pandemic will already be fading by November.

 Jensen's lead among Independent voters is a marginal four points. His lead among rural voters is only ten points -- not enough to offset the population advantage of the metro area. Judging by past statewide elections, MNGOP needs more than 70% of the rural vote to come close in a statewide race. Jensen offers only 49%, with 11% undecided. In southern MN, the supposed "MNGOP stronghold", Walz leads by four points against MNGOP's strongest candidate: Jensen. 

 It's also interesting that Gazelka, who is actually an experienced Republican politician, gets only 43% of the statewide rural vote against a man MNGOP has devoted every resource into demonizing for years. MNGOP's base has transformed from a Republican base into a Trump base. There are no more policy positions to be found. How long can MNGOP get by with nothing more than "trolling the libs" to maintain that base?