McCain's Convention Bounce?

I still think that McCain will not get much of a Convention bounce at all. Seriously, a bounce from what?

At the DNC, the Democrats unified their Party, slammed McCain, and introduced Obama to the nation while wiping out the idea that he is scary, unpatriotic, and wants to raise taxes - all to an immense audience across the nation.
They got a bounce from that, and Obama is up by 8.

What will the Republicans do?

Talk up the Iraq war, drilling, God, God and a bit more God thrown in for good measure. They will repeat several dozen times that McCain is a war hero and a POW. They will repeat all of the smears that have failed to gain traction over the past year.

This is all just re-hashing what they have already been saying for a year now. But people think that now, because it's said at a bloody Convention, that the nation will sit up and change their minds?
The Republican base is already solidified going in to the Convention. They have been un-enthusiastic, yes, but always ready to vote as they are told.

So what does anyone imagine they will get a bounce from?

I am so bloody sick of people pointing to 2004 and thinking that everything will play out the same way. This is an incredibly unique situation that is hardly comparable to 2004 or 2000. The entire electoral map has changed, but everyone still continues to think in terms of 2004: PID, Republican organisation, turnout, how Kerry did in certain states, 2004 exit polling, etc.

It's not 2004 anymore. Isn't that obvious? The Republicans have too much ground to defend. They have put their strongest candidate (most moderate), one that has made a career out of standing against them, against the Democrats...and the Republican is losing. In effect, they have put the candidate who least represents their core values against the Democrats, and even that hasn't done them any good. The McCain candidacy itself is a sign of desperation on the GOP's part, but everyone just wrings their hands over CW that doesn't match reality. It's so pathetic.