Al-Maliki is becoming the Iraqi version of Bush. He threw his Army into Basra with almost no planning and no intelligence. Who could have predicted that armoured vehicles couldn't penetrate the narrow streets of Basra? Who knew that the Basra police would desert and mutiny when it's been clear for years that they are infiltrated by the militias? Who could have possibly anticipated that the conflict would spread to other cities, or that the Army's supply lines would be harried?
Months after announcing a "decisive" battle against a nebulously-defined enemy in the northern part of the country, nothing has taken place that is any different than the routine 'indecisive' efforts of the past. Days after personally overseeing the Basra operation and making a three-day ultimatum (without mentioning the ensuing consequences), Al-Maliki then withdrew far away from the fighting and announced an additional week before the ultimatum would expire and he would then...do what, exactly?
Far from proving the Iraqi Army's "readiness", the week's unfolding scenario only illustrates Al-Maliki's readiness to follow the Administration's orders. American troops have already begun participating, and we have been providing air support for the Basra operation nearly from the start. With discontent growing among the Sunni Sahwa ("Awakening") forces, some of the Sahwa forces are going on strike to protest not being paid. If the continuation of this conflict weakens the Iraqi government's hold on other areas, we could very see our "Awakening" buddies take advantage of the situation and reject the Shia government's control of predominantly Sunni districts. The Sahwa are in this to wipe out the rival gangs, not to bolster the Iraqi government, and the government has not only failed to pay them, but it has actively moved against Sunni interests. And the longer this expensive operation continues, the longer the government loses crucial oil revenue from Basra. This could turn out to be major financial setback on top of a potentially demoralising defeat for the Iraqi government.
How can this be considered any less than a civil war? The Shia government of Al-Maliki has as its strongest ally the (Iranian-inspired) Badr Corps, and the Iraqi Army (along with the Badr Corps) are taking out their primary domestic opposition. The potential ascendance of ISCI can only increase the profile of Iran within Iraq. Just as the removal of Saddam from power took away the strongest check on Iran's regional power, this action by the Iraqi government will, if successful, only reinforce Iran's influence in the region.
Baghdad is also coming apart, and the mortar attacks on the Green Zone are not only much more intense, but have also resulted in casualties. 31 districts within Baghdad are now seeing clashes with Sadrist forces.
The Iraqi minister of defense, Abdul Qadir Jasim, admitted in a news conference in Basra that the militiamen had taken the Iraqi security forces off guard. He added that the Iraqi government had expected this operation to be routine, but was surprised at the level of resistance, and was forced to change its plans and tactics.
Does the above sound familiar? All that we need now is for Al-Maliki to start using terms like "turning the corner" and we'll know for sure that Cheney left his script there. We now have Turkish troops in Kurdistan, the Diyala "pacification is stalled, as is the Anbar reconstruction, progress in Baghdad has been set back, and the Basra conflict has spread to four new cities; this is "good news" to the Decider.
McCain really intends to campaign on the "progress" in Iraq?
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