The Death of Bush

The Bush presidency has now gone into a coma. For the last year, we've seen him drop in the polls to the high 30's with only 60-70% support from his "base". Then we saw most Republicans up for election treat him like a leper. At the elections , I think most people just voted against him and the politicians associated with him rather than voting for the Democrats. But when the maps turned blue and the tallies were added up, I think the real sense of abandonment of Bush set in. Bush has set up a mindset of loving the winner, and he's not the winner anymore.
The Republican message has been that you're either "all in" or "all out". Congressdroids who may have been fiscal and defence hawks had to become part of the evangelical army or risk being marginalised in their own party. You had to unquestioningly support the war, the tax cuts, the Katrina response, and most of all, whatever dumb thing Dubya or Rummy said. This approach creates unity, but when you're way back in the polls it also creates a "circle the wagons" mentality. Much of the Bush "security" agenda relied on trust of Bush. Bush would never abuse his surveillance powers, he would never torture innocents, would never use his vast fiat powers to his own benefit...and so on. Now his credibility is gone, and people are waking up to how much power they have given a guy who, until a few weeks ago, was all thumbs up and smiley about the "progress" in Iraq.
The Christian Right has mostly sat back on their heels throughout the Bush presidency, satisfied with a few bones while waiting for real progress on their agenda after the mid-terms. Now it's over, and they are hosed. The Democrats will not support that agenda over the next few years, and as the door of the Bush crypt opens and an ugly assortment of truths begin to rise into the light of day, watch for that agenda to wither and die. The Christian Right is only about 25% of the population, but has wielded a disproportionate influence for far too long. There's no longer any compelling reason to cater to their wacky whim and they no longer hold a stick. Of course, Bush can claim he tried to advance the agenda over the next two years but was foiled by the Democrats. Still, the "what have you done for us lately" mood will hurt the Republicans in '08 as their "base" grows increasingly disillusioned. And you're either all in or all out, remember.
We haven't seen a massive leftward shift with this election, only an abrupt move to the centre. But the Democrats don't have to make America love them, they just have to let it become disgusted with Bush so that anytime a Republican harps on the old standard tunes they will be seen as ou-of-touch and "Bushy". By default they win. That's not a ringing endorsement by any means, but it does drive a stake into the heart of your adversary.
So in '08 we will probably be starting to pull out of Iraq, and it will not look anything like "victory". Revelations of corruption, abuses of power, staggering stupidity, and atrocities by the troops will have come to light. Former insiders will be spilling their guts and people will slowly realise that being patriotic deosn't neccesarily mean supporting the President or even war. Bush will probably be beating the drums for another invasion, perhaps Iran or Venezuela, based on "evidence" that most people will suspect as fixed. The staggering costs of the Iraq war will begin to sink in, and people will begin to wonder out loud what "vital interests" were exactly at stake there . The Bush definition of "victory" will have taken a few more sinuous twists, as Iraq begins to shape up as anything but an "ally". Soldiers coming home will find out just exactly how the Administration "supports the troops", as they face benefit cuts in the VA and find out their jobs are gone and their kids have grown up without them. The Supreme Court will have made some wacky rulings and people will wonder what the hell they've done giving these conservatives the store. And most importantly, people will no longer see dissent as unpatriotic or treasonous, and will resent the "security apparatus" spying on domestic political opposition rather than "terrorists". The trust will have evaporated, and it will all be about naked power, scapegoating, and fearmongering. The Republicans will be the party of Fear, Big Brother, and Big Business, or more exactly, will now be SEEN as that. This is their true nature, previously concealed by the flags and crucifixes they wrapped themselves in.
So who will the Republicans run in '08 to carry on the agenda? Most everyone with any stature has been deeply associated with Bush, and the Democrats can easily show voting records, sound bites, and pictures to make anyone in that Party look like a "Bush man", a craven toady who suckled from the Bush teat when he rode high and bit the hand that fed him when he took his tumble. The GOP candidate will have to become the "Anti-Bush", while still stealthily supporting the agenda that brought Bush to power. For a party of droids more used to parroting the party line than thinking for themselves, it will be a challenge to find anyone bright enough to pull that one off. Meanwhile, another crop of Congresspeople will be up for election. These will be the droids who got voted in by an electorate who went for someone who was part of the "TEAM", rather than someone who had merit on their own. Norm Coleman is one of those. And finally, redistricting will be taking place, and the ironclad districts in which the Republicans could run any idiot and win will be dissolved.
As this last remnant of the Bush regime gets swept out of Congress, and the Christian Right's support drops markedly, the Party will be in a post-Nixon state. Perhaps it will finally return to it's roots, which is not a pro-police state or religious tradition.