EU not going along with Bush on Iran

Aside from Germany and France, the EU isn't going along with Bush's rush to war with Iran. Arab states are reluctant as well, after seeing what a brilliant success Iraq was and how it impacted stability in the region. Britain has stated conditions for its participation, but the obvious question on the minds of European and Arab states regards the plan for what happens after Iran is bombed into bits. None of the American politicians, commanders, or neocons are talking about that little issue. Bush is so busy drumming up a new war, bullying countries into a "united front" against Iran, and trying to persuade the domestic audience that destroying Iran will allow us to "win" in Iraq that he hasn't really outlined that next step.

It is certainly within our ability, especially with aid from a few allies, to wage an air war against Iran. That is not the question, however. After we have bombed the industrial, political, and military infrastructure, killing civilians in the process, do we really believe that Iranians will appreciate the "favour"? If the plan is to impose a puppet government, then an occupation is necessary. If the plan is to cross our fingers and hope that an Israeli-friendly government spontaneously emerges from the rubble, then Bush is sadly deluded. The latter, however, given Bush's record, is probably the case.

A puppet government is fraught with problems, not the least being that this is exactly what the Iranians overthrew in the late '70s. The subsequent occupation would hardly be welcomed, and I think we all can see from the Iraq experience what the reconstruction would be like. We would create yet another failed state in the Middle East, put more domestic pressure on our Arab allies, and give Muslims worldwide yet another reason to hate the West. And this is the good scenario, because Israel may very well be struck itself. In any case, an occupation would leave us seriously overstretched and completely unable to respond to new threats, even with allied help. Britain is at the limit already, Germany is tied up in an increasingly-unpopular Afghan effort, and the French skills at occupation are what got us into Vietnam. We've already seen the force levels that the rest of the EU scrapes up, even under Bush's heavy pressure.

But, as I have said before, with Bush's decision-making process, the best possible outcome is the only likely outcome. It'll work out great, you'll see. They will welcome us with flowers and chocolates and eagerly give us their oil. And it won't cost hardly anything. Best of all, it will be the next president's problem.

At the very least, Turkey, Russia, and the Gulf States should be loudly inquiring what the Plan is, even if the EU is not.

Kouchner fails in bid to secure new sanctions against Tehran

Compiled by Daily Star staff
Tuesday, October 16, 2007

European Union nations failed to agree Monday on new sanctions against Iran to get Tehran to halt the part of its nuclear program that European and other nations fear could be used to make atomic weapons. An effort by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner to get the 27-nation EU to push ahead with more sanctions - outside of the United Nations - failed to get widespread support, diplomats said.

But after an EU foreign ministers meeting, Kouchner said France might take additional punitive measures against Tehran on its own if the UN Security Council failed to take new measures before the end of the year.

"We could at that moment develop more individual, national sanctions," Kouchner said at a news conference.

It remains unclear if Russia or China will back additional economic or political sanctions at the UN.

Last month, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - Britain, China, France, the United States and Russia - and Germany agreed with the support of the EU to hold off on a new sanctions resolution until November to allow for talks with Iran to continue.

The EU foreign ministers said in a statement that the EU "will consider what additional measures it might take" after that time.

Highlighting the division over how to get Iran to stop its uranium enrichment program, Javier Solana, the EU foreign and security affairs chief, told reporters: "It remains my mandate [from the UN] to continue working on the possibility of further sanctions. We are not thinking of sanctions right now."

The EU foreign ministers warned Iran that more sanctions would be considered if it failed to cooperate. New economic and political sanctions could include investment bans or scrapping export credit guarantees. The approach is being championed by Kouchner, who called on his EU counterparts last week to study new sanctions.

The EU, the US and others are concerned Iran's nuclear program may be geared toward creating fissile material for nuclear warheads. But Iran says its program is strictly for producing fuel for nuclear power plants.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said European trade with Iran had already fallen by about 37 percent in the year to May, signaling that the EU was serious about punishing Iran.

"The EU is playing its part in signaling very clearly to the Iranian regime that they need to abide by the successive UN Security Council resolutions," Miliband told reporters.