So... after a solid month of combat, Russia still hasn't taken Kyiv. Even after Putin commanded back in early March that Kyiv be taken within 3 days, Russian troops have only entered the suburbs and been driven back when their supply lines were cut. Sure, Russia bombed and fired missiles at civilian targets within Kyiv. They shelled the suburbs of Kyiv relentlessly, causing the maximum damage to non-military targets. Russian battalions tried, but failed to encircle Kyiv and impose a Grozny-style siege on the capitol. They continue to pursue this strategy.
As unlikely as it probably sounds, Russia has now announced that the world misunderstood their advances. Day after day, Russia smiled as their paid trolls predicted an imminent collapse of Kyiv, and by extension, the entire Ukrainian military. Western media, of course, obliged Putin. Over and over again, the 'news' about the war was reduced to "explosions heard in Kyiv". Oh dear, people are trying to flee from the mighty Russian juggernaut! Week after week, the implied narrative was as inane as it was consistent: Kyiv is doomed, and we will bravely wring our hands as it is unfortunately crushed by the overwhelming might of the unstoppable Russian military. Again and again, we heard reports that Russia was "prioritizing" the occupation of Kyiv. There was, after all, a long convoy of vehicles north of the city, which 'proved' that doom was nigh. Never mind that these were almost entirely the equivalent of untrained National Guard troops tasked with the occupation of a city that would supposedly already be 'liberated' and 'pacified'. Never mind that this convoy was burning up scarce fuel simply to keep warm as they were stalled. Never mind that Ukrainian troops constantly used hit-and-run tactics to whittle away at this convoy's threat. Never mind that these troops were slowly figuring out that their pay was in worthless currency.
We were instructed to be frightened and to expect the worst. Many stuck to that script and wrung their hands endlessly and daily over the imminent collapse of Kyiv. And, as always, that was conflated with the destruction of the Ukrainian military.
Remember when Hanoi was bombed into rubble every week and the Vietcong surrendered? Me neither. Remember when Soviet forces taking Kabul destroyed the Afghan resistance and ended all combat? Me neither. Remember when American troops took Baghdad and withdrew in victory? Me neither.
In modern warfare, a capital city isn't a huge prize. Sure, command and control over a regular military is often surrendered. But the regular military is just the first layer of opposition. In Ukraine, there are well-armed and well-organized Territorial forces that are perfectly capable of operating independently of a central command in Kyiv. Also, well-trained civilian militias exist that don't need commands from Kyiv as to whether they should attack a supply convoy or not. Or shoot collaborators.
Yet, all of this is for naught. Russia has now announced that everything previous was never designed to take Kyiv. You silly fools thought the Russian military was trying to destroy and occupy Kyiv. But that was never the goal. All of that hand-wringing and braying about the imminent fall of Kyiv was just stupid. The Russian military never wanted that.
Instead, it was all about a peacekeeping mission in Donbas.
That whole convoy, and the siege of Mariupol, was just a ploy to weaken the Ukrainian military so that it couldn't take action against Russian troops in Donbas. Hah-hah, you morons fell for it!
Never mind that Donbas is still contested. Never mind that 10k Russian troops are encircled around Irpin. Never mind that Russian forces have relentlessly shelled Russian-speaking areas (including most civilian targets) of Donbas. Never mind that Russian armored battalions are still operating west of Kyiv, and only control the ground they are currently standing on.
Sadly, Russia will gladly throw all of those forces in the vicinity of Kyiv to the wolves. They were merely a distraction. Because they (now) only care about Donbas, in the east. Let the Ukrainian military waste precious time starving those Russian battalions into submission. Let them wipe out tank formation upon tank formation. Let them shell Russian positions and use drones at night to decimate their numbers. It's always been about Donbas, Putin now says. Where did you get the idea that it was about anything else?
Putin wants a 'victory' to brag about for the May 9 celebrations in Russia. But I expect a cruel April, as more and more military aid arrives from the West and Russian supply lines in the east come under attack. Russia still has to defend marginal gains in the south, while maintaining troops in other theaters like Syria and Georgia. The Russian naval forces in the Black Sea will be increasingly threatened. And even Russian-leaning civilians in Donbas will become disaffected by occupation measures. Once street fighting in Mariupol starts, the Russian artillery and air strikes won't be factor. They will be reluctant to bomb their own troops.
The simple reality is that Donbas and Luhansk aren't particularly attractive prizes. Russian troops will be needed to occupy it for years. Harsh measures will be employed. Russian-backed mercenaries will continue to wreak havoc. Nothing will be "peaceful". Arms and special forces will continue to pour into Ukraine.
Remember, Russia went in to this disaster with Donbas and Luhansk under nominal control of pro-Russian separatist forces. They would have basically gained nothing.
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