Saturday, November 03, 2012

Rasmussen revealed

This is Rasmussen's Polling chart for 2012.
As you can see, it showed Romney ahead from April onward.



Interesting that Rasmussen makes you pay to see these results.

This is PPP's chart for 2012.
As you can see it showed Obama ahead.



Right now, it's 11/3/12.
If Obama wins, Rasmussen can claim that he was within the MoE (margin of error), and thus "accurate".
If Romney wins, obviously Rasmussen can claim "accuracy".
Note: the links below will probably not function after the election, or will require payment.

Since Rasmussen will charge you to see this after the election, let's look at Rasmussen's latest Ohio results:
Friday, November 02, 2012
With four days to go, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio.   
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Obama and Romney each with 49% support.  Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided. 
 Let's also look at Rasmussen's latest Colorado survey:
Thursday, November 01, 2012
Mitt Romney still holds a narrow lead in Colorado. 
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters shows Romney still holding 50% support, while President Obama earns 47% of the vote. Two percent (2%) favor some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided.
 And Florida, which Scotty hasn't polled since 10/26. Latest results:
Friday, October 26, 2012
Mitt Romney still earns 50% of the vote in the key battleground state of Florida, but his lead is smaller.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama's 48%. One percent (1%) is undecided.

Now realise that Rasmussen's MoE on these State polls is +/- 4%.
Even if Obama wins these States, Rasmussen will still be able to claim "accuracy", even though he predicted a Romney win in two of these three. Scotty does not even have to pick the correct winner to be considered "accurate".

Let's look at Rasmussen's chart for Florida:


As you can see, Rasmussen showed Romney leading in every poll that he did of the State. That's pretty different than showing one poll where it could go for Obama and still be within the MoE.

And now, let's look at Rasmussen's chart for Colorado:


Romney is ahead and steadily gaining since July. Wow, it sure looks as if Romney couldn't lose, doesn't it?

Now for Ohio. Let's see Rasmussen's view of the race:


Obama was ahead all year, except up to the very end when Romney pulled ahead. Weird, right? But Scotty's still within the MoE, isn't he? No harm in giving Republicans a little hope, when you can still claim accuracy even if Romney loses.

Let's see how "accurate" Rasmussen really is after the election. It should be fun to hear him spin, but he will probably hide all of this information shown on his own site, or require payment.